LULU是一个不错的买入标的；估值低、盈利能力强，且潜在的PE收购或CEO换帅带来的扭转可能提供上行空间。
逐段跳播
无论如何，Lululemon已经变成了一个“柠檬”，现在价格低于100。我不知道它今天会以什么价格开盘，但这总是一个有趣的故事。发生了什么？
Anyway, Lululemon has become a " lemon" and is now less than 100. I don't know where it will open today, but it's always an interesting story . What happened?
嗯，我们的收入终于大幅下降，下降了4%。可比销售额下降了9%。如果你与上一季度相比，那很糟糕，但没有那么糟糕。它仍然是一家增长型公司。可比销售额也很高。如果你与2024年相比，看起来好得多，利润更高。
Well, we have revenues finally declining significantly, by 4%. Comparative sales are down by 9%. If you compare it to the previous quarter, it was bad, but not that bad. It was still a growing company. Comparable sales were also high. If you compare it to 2024, it looked much better with higher profits.
我们最近讨论了运动服装行业，研究了耐克、Lululemon和On，并得出结论：最终一切都归结于客户偏好，当年什么会流行，什么会增长，什么不会增长，这非常非常难以预测。某一年某样东西流行，第二年又是另一样东西。
We recently discussed the sportswear industry, looked at Nike, Lululemon, and On, and concluded that ultimately it comes down to customer preferences first, what will be popular that year, what will grow, and what won't grow, and that's very, very difficult to predict. Something is popular one year, and something else the next year.
问题是，人们买入那些受欢迎的股票，然后当趋势改变时，他们对耐克下跌75%或Lululemon下跌80%感到惊讶。
The problem is that people buy those popular stocks, and then they are surprised when stocks like Nike drop by 75% or Lululemon by 80% when the trend changes.
然而，我们也说过，在某个时候，情况会变得如此糟糕，以至于它们必然代表价值。让我们讨论一下。市值在下跌18%之后，将是110亿。市盈率将是8，并且根据预测可能约为10。
However, we also said that at some point things get so bad that they have to represent value. Let's discuss that. The market value now, after a decrease of 18%, will be 11 billion. The price-to-earnings ratio will be eight, and is likely to be around 10 based on forecasts.
看看情况，是的，销售额下降了12%。国际销售也下降了。在中国有一些问题。然而，利润仍然存在，公司仍然盈利。有一些退税，好的。他们还进行了股票回购。总的来说，公司仍然盈利。公司仍然存在。库存没有激增，所以他们在这方面管理得很好。
Looking at the situation, yes, sales have decreased by 12%. International sales also declined. There were some problems in China. However, profits are still there, and the company is still profitable. There are some tax refunds, okay. They also carried out share buybacks. Overall, the company remains profitable. The company still exists. Inventories are not experiencing a surge, so they are managing that well.
收入预测继续下降，出现两位数的下降。对于一家公司来说，对全年做出这样的预测是一件大事。每股收益仍然是9美元。即使明年情况糟糕，他们也将赚大约五或六美元的利润。但净利润仍然存在。那么，这一切是怎么回事？下降了20%。
Revenue forecasts continue to decline, with a double-digit drop. This is a big deal for a company to say about the year. Earnings are still $9 per share. Even if the situation is terrible next year, they will make about five or six dollars in profit. But net income is still there. So, what is this all about ? A decrease of 20%.
看看财报电话会议，中国收入仅增长了4%。这是因为他们今年在中国的重大活动中犯了一个大错误，使用了日本鼓。这发生在六月。因此，这种影响应该更大，因为季度在七月结束。所以，收入远低于预期。这种影响很可能延续到本季度。
Looking at the earnings call, revenue grew by only 4% in China. This is because they made a big mistake by using Japanese drums at their main Chinese event this year. This happened in June. Therefore, this effect should be greater because the quarter ended in July. So, the revenue is much lower than expected. This effect is likely to extend to this quarter as well.
但随后，我快速浏览了电话会议。能说什么呢？舒适的“Scupa”服装、“Superloft”面料、高端的“Metal Vent”技术衬衫，以及高尔夫服装。Min Woo Lee和刘易斯·汉密尔顿。
事情开始变得疯狂。“Prezi”厚款工作室长裤。当然，公司正遭受销售额下降10%的困扰。然而，这可以被描述为一个相当缓慢的开始。但我们谈论的是一家一直在增长的公司。如果情况在某个时候稳定下来，人们会喜欢这些高端时尚的产品。
我们仍然保持着累计收入、累计净利润和超过十亿美元的自由现金流。
But then, I took a quick look at the conference call. What can one say? Comfortable "Scupa" clothing , " Superloft" fabrics, premium "Metal Vent" technical shirts , and golf apparel. Min Woo Lee and Lewis Hamilton . Things are starting to get crazy. " Prezi" thick studio pants. Of course, the company is suffering from a 10% drop in sales . However, it can be described as a rather slow start. But we are talking about a company that was growing. If things settle down at some point, people will love these high-end and stylish products. We still maintain accumulated revenues, accumulated net income and free cash flows exceeding one billion.
指引仍然指向每股收益九。那可能略少。我不知道，也许七。这是基于分析师对明年的预测乘以15，这里接近当前价格。新任CEO将尽最大努力刷新局面。趋势总是在变化。股票便宜，是的，并且有可能被私募股权公司收购。
如果你看看所有者，他们是创始人，所以可能会那样发展。
The guidance still points to earnings per share of nine. That might be slightly less. I don't know, maybe seven. This is based on analysts' forecasts for next year multiplied by 15, and here it approaches the current price. The new CEO will do her best to refresh things. Trends are always changing. The stock is cheap, yes, and there is a possibility of it being acquired by a private equity firm. If you look at the owners, they are founders, so it might go that way .
问题是，那些在500、或400、或300、或200买入的人不会对120或130的收购交易感到满意，这是私募股权公司可能愿意支付的价格。130亿到150亿对比十亿的现金流。1.5倍，很棒的收购交易。
甚至可能200亿，那将相当于200的价格。所以，从这个角度来看，丑陋的情况变得越来越丑陋，以至于它可能成为一个真正的投资机会。15亿现金的安全边际，市值，一家盈利的公司，一个强大的品牌，以及如果CEO被雇来出售公司，潜在上涨空间为50%或更多。所以，将会发生一些事情。这可能是最糟糕的时机。
The problem is that those who bought at 500, or 400, or 300, or 200 will not be happy with a takeover deal at 120 or 130, which is a price that a private equity firm may be willing to pay. 13 to 15 billion versus one billion in cash flows. 1.5 Great buy deal. Perhaps even 20 billion, which would be equivalent to a price of 200. So, from this perspective, the ugly situation is getting uglier to the point that it might become a real investment opportunity. A safety margin of 1.5 billion in cash, market capitalization, a profitable company, a strong brand, and a potential upside of 50% or more if the CEO is employed to sell the company. So, something will happen. This could be the worst time.
也许在下一个季度，CEO将采取激进和全面的措施。试图通过引入一切新事物来恢复平衡。我们将看看她的计划是什么。然而，没有更好的情况了。这是Michael Perry最大的投资。他将在100或更低的价格加倍下注。
我不知道他练多少瑜伽，但也许那些古怪的“Dans Studio”裤子会帮助他做出更好的决定。就我个人而言，我说过我的生活中不需要这种干扰。所以，对我来说不，但它看起来确实是一个好的买入。
Perhaps in the next quarter the CEO will take radical and comprehensive measures. Trying to restore balance by introducing everything new. We'll see what her plan is. However, there is no better situation. It's Michael Perry's biggest investment. He will double his bet at a price of 100 or less. I don't know how much he practices yoga, but maybe some of those quirky "Dans Studio" pants will help him make a better decision. Personally, I said that I don't need this kind of disruption in my life. So, for me no, but it certainly looks like a good buy.
这个频道对 $LULU 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。