Lululemon面临严峻的逆风和负增长，但如果管理层成功实施转型，则存在显著上行潜力；Michael Burry的持续买入支持这一逆向观点。
逐段跳播
例如，Lululemon是Michael Burry的首选投资。
For example, Lululemon is the top investment from Michael Burry.
现在，我们首先来看Lululemon，这家瑜伽裤公司，它陷入了大麻烦。股价持续暴跌。事实上，当我们看Lululemon今年表现时，它几乎是今年表现最差的股票之一。年初至今，它下跌了51%。
如果我们把时间拉长到过去一年，它下跌了38%。过去5年，看看这个，Lululemon下跌了76%。
Now, we start things off by looking at Lululemon, the yoga pants company, and this one is in a lot of trouble. The stock price continues to plummet. In fact, when we look at Lululemon this year, it's quite literally one of the worst performing stocks of the year. Year-to-date, it's down 51%. If we zoom out in the past trailing year, it's down 38%. The past 5 years, check this out. Lululemon is down 76%.
Lululemon 如今正经历一段非常艰难的时期。从营收增长来看，这家公司在疫情后、2020 年增长高峰之后，曾以每年 15% 至 20% 的速度持续增长，并获得了大量市场份额。
在那段时间里，Lululemon 势不可挡。我在互联网上、Reddit、X、每个股票论坛、每个 Discord 上都看到人们在谈论 Lululemon。这家势不可挡的服装公司，是新的耐克。当时这个故事充满了魔力。
What's happening with Lululemon today is that the stock is going through a very troubling time. So, if we look at the revenue growth, this company was growing revenue continually in the 15% to 20% per year after COVID, after the 2020 bump, it gained a ton of market share. This period of time, Lululemon was unstoppable. I saw it all through the internet, on Reddit, on X, on every stock forum, on every Discord, people were talking about Lululemon. This unstoppable clothing company, it's the new Nike. The story had a lot of magic in it at the time.
但后来情况开始变化。运营发生了转变。管理层严重失误。许多竞争对手开始模仿他们的产品。有 Alo Yoga、Vuori 模仿他们的产品，甚至做出不同的变体。像 Costco 这样的公司销售 Lululemon 的仿制品。
增长开始放缓。事实上，过去一年的增长基本已趋于平缓，仅略高于低通胀水平。营收不仅在过去一年放缓，而且持续减速，甚至转为负增长。事实上，对来年的预测是每股收益增长为负 11%。因此，每股收益将下降，营收增长为负 1%。
因此，在增长大幅放缓、减速甚至进入负值的情况下，投资者正在抛弃该股。这就是压低股价的原因。这也压低了该股目前的交易倍数。未来 12 个月的远期市盈率为 11.9。这还是假设每股收益在缩水的情况下。
这些估值远低于大宗商品倍数，意味着 Lululemon 目前正被定价为资本毁灭。
But then, things started to change. Operations shifted. The management screwed up big time. A lot of competitors started mimicking their product. You had Alo Yoga, you had Vuori imitating their products and making even different variations of it. Companies like Costco sold dupes of Lululemon. And the growth started to slow down. In fact, the growth over just the past year has basically flattened out to be low inflation. The revenue hasn't only slowed down over the past year, it continues to decelerate and even go into the negative. In fact, the forecast for this upcoming year are minus 11% EPS growth. So, EPS are going to decline and minus 1% revenue growth. So, while the growth has heavily slowed down, it's decelerated and it's even going into the red, we have investors abandoning the stock. And that's what's pushing down the price. And it's also pushing down the multiples that the stock trades at today. The forward PE ratio over the next 12 months is 11.9. And that's assuming earnings per share shrinking. These valuations are well below commodity multiples, meaning that Lululemon is currently being priced for capital destruction.
迈克尔·伯里就是其中之一。事实上，迈克尔·伯里对 Lululemon 感兴趣已有一段时间。事实上，追溯到 2025 年他还在管理自己的基金时，Lululemon 占其仓位的 32%。
平均股价为 177 美元。因此，自该基金买入以来，股价大约下跌了 45%。我们还有更近期的更新。在 2026 年 2 月，他不再管理自己的基金，只管理自己的钱，并运营一个博客。
迈克尔·伯里表示，Lululemon 已经回调，我正在小幅加仓。因此，迈克尔·伯里今年早些时候用个人资金以 177 美元买入该股。他还表示，如果股价跌破 150 美元，他会大举买入。
目前股价为每股 100 美元。因此，这远低于他自己的成本基础。迈克尔·伯里并未因此气馁。事实上，他继续加倍下注，不断买入更多 Lululemon。他最近的迹象表明，他仍然极度看好这家公司。事实上，这现在是他个人账户中最大的仓位。
Michael Burry is one of them. In fact, Michael Burry has been interested in Lululemon for quite a while. In fact, going back to 2025 when he was still managing his fund, he had Lululemon as a 32% position. The average share price was 177. So, the shares are roughly down 45% since the purchase price of this fund. We also have a more recent update. In February of 2026, he's no longer managing his fund, he's just managing his own money and he's running a blog. Michael Burry said that Lululemon has pulled back and I'm adding to my position a bit. So, Michael Burry was buying the stock at 177 earlier this year with his own personal money. And he said that he would load the truck if the stock falls below 150. Right now, it's $100 per share. So, it's substantially down below his own cost basis. And Michael Burry hasn't been discouraged by this. In fact, he's continued to double and triple down on this, continuing to buy more and more Lululemon. His most recent indications are that he's still overwhelmingly bullish on this company. And in fact, it's now his largest position in his personal account.
最重要的一点是，他认为 Lululemon 的品牌远胜于其管理团队。也就是说，Lululemon 的品牌实际上很棒。产品很好，质量超高，深受富裕人群喜爱。这只是一个伟大的品牌，但管理层却很糟糕。
他认为管理层很糟糕，他们管理不善一个不可思议的品牌。
The biggest one is that he believes Lululemon is a much better brand than a management team. Meaning that the brand of Lululemon is actually great. It's a great product, it's super high quality, it's well loved by very affluent people. It's just a great brand, but the management has stunk. He believes that the management is terrible and they've mismanaged an incredible brand.
即使是 Lululemon，大约一年前投放的广告是这样的。这就是它们的样子。现在，左边是 Vuori 和 Alo Yoga。它们是 Lululemon 最大的两个直接竞争对手。
它们投放的广告就是这种类型。它们展示产品的方式。右边是 Lululemon。这是一个真实的广告。这不是 AI。这只是大约一年前的广告。这是一位祖母，一位 78 岁的老年网红，穿着 Lululemon 裤子锻炼。
这只是其中一个例子，这是一个营销问题。我可以举出更多 Lululemon 在战术和导航上的错误。
Even with the Lululemon, here are the ads that were running a year or so ago. This is what they looked like. Now, we have on the left here Vuori and Alo Yoga. These are the two biggest competitors, direct competitors to Lululemon. These are the type of ads they were running. The way that they were presenting their product. On the right, we have Lululemon. This was is a real ad. This is not AI. This is just a a year or so ago. It's a a grandma, like a a very old lady, 78 years old, influencer working out in Lululemon pants. And this is just one example, which is a marketing issue. I could go through far more to tactical and navigation mistakes that Lululemon has done.
因此，这里的部分论点是，Lululemon 实际上仍然拥有出色的产品。如果管理层回到正轨，如果他们真正做真实的营销、真正的产品设计，并且变得更加相关，他们将夺回市场份额。他们将重新赢得客户的信任，股价可能会因此大幅反弹。他们可能再次加速增长。
So, part of the thesis here is that Lululemon actually has still a great product. And if management gets back on track, if they really do real marketing, real product design, and they become more relevant, they will take back market share. They'll earn back the trust of their customers, and the stock could have a big bounce because of that. They could re-accelerate growth once again.
但还有其他因素影响这只股票。例如，我们之前看过估值，但如果再看一次，它已经反映了很多问题。增长的减速、营销问题、产品设计，所有这些都已反映在当前的股价中。因此，像迈克尔·伯里这样的人认为，这家公司已经被定价为一家糟糕的公司。
如果他们有任何积极势头，任何转机，那可能是巨大的，无论是 Lululemon 的股票还是其他股票。
But, there's other factors to this stock. For example, we looked once at the valuation, but if we look at this again, it already implies a lot of the problems. The deceleration in growth, the marketing issues, the product design, all of that is baked into the stock today. So, people like Michael Burry argue that this company's already priced as a bad company. And if they have any type of positive momentum, any type of turnaround, it could be massive both in Lululemon stock and in others.
低估值还有另一个作用。它使公司能够以越来越有吸引力的价格回购自己的股票。这是 Salesforce 最终玩的游戏。他们利用杠杆回购自己的股票。当我们观察流通股数量随时间的变化时，我们可以看到 Lululemon 可以说也能做同样的事情。
他们已经在以每年超过 5% 的速度减少流通股，这已经非常大了。从流通股中注销所有这些股票意味着，当你持有一股时，你实际上拥有公司更大的比例。他们可以加速这一点。我可以看到 Lululemon 的股票减少率从 5% 上升到每年 7% 到 10%。
事实上，他们可以将每年的股票减少率推高到 10% 以上，因为他们的稀释率很低，股票薪酬很低。
And there's another thing that a low valuation does. It makes it so that the company can buy back its own shares at increasingly attractive prices. This is the game that Salesforce eventually did. They took out leverage to buy back their own shares. When we look at the share count over time, we can see that Lululemon could arguably do the same thing. They're already reducing the share count by over 5% per year, which is very big. Retiring all of those shares out of the float makes it so that when you own a share, you actually own a bigger percentage of the company. And they could accelerate this. I could see Lululemon going from 5% share reduction to 7% to 10% per year. In fact, they could push this upwards of above 10% share count reduction per year because they have very low dilution, they have very low stock-based comp.
另一件事是，Lululemon 拥有非常强大的资产负债表。现在，这里有很多资本租赁。这些就像商场里的租赁协议，但这更像是一项持续支出。当你看到他们拥有的现金数量时，是 13.9 亿。
因此，他们确实有一些财务灵活性。如果他们愿意，如果股价足够有吸引力，他们可以用部分现金回购股票。
And another thing is that Lululemon has an incredibly powerful balance sheet. Now, we have here a lot of capital leases. Those are like lease agreements in malls, but that's more of an ongoing expense. When you look at the amount of cash they have, it's at 1.39 billion. So, they do have some financial flexibility here. And if they wanted to, they could use some of this cash to buy back shares if their shares get attractive enough.
看待 Lululemon 的最大因素是判断公司的问题究竟是暂时的还是永久的。但如果你认为他们有可能重新加速增长、恢复营销、以任何程度回到正轨，那么这只股票可能会出现巨大的转机。
The biggest factor to look at with Lululemon is deciding whether or not this problem in the company is temporary or permanent. But if you think there's a chance that they can reaccelerate growth, recover their marketing, get back on track to any degree, this one could have a massive turnaround.
这个频道对 $LULU 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。