梅西百货不适合长期投资，因为电子商务竞争（尤其是来自亚马逊的竞争）构成生存威胁，这超过了其低估值和资产基础。
逐段跳播
这里我们已经有一只我认为是巴菲特可能会投资的那种股票，我不知道用什么词来形容，它可能足够固执，值得投资。这只股票是梅西百货，股票代码M，伯克希尔在季度内向其投入超过9000万美元，增持幅度高达142%。
Well, here we already have a stock that I think , you know, is the kind of stock that Buffett might invest in, I don't know what the right word is. It might be stubborn enough to invest in. This stock is Macy's, ticker symbol M, where Berkshire just pumped over $90 million to increase its stake by a staggering 142% during the quarter.
坦白说，在我看来，这只股票看起来像是巴菲特会喜欢的那种股票。它从账面上看非常便宜，但经营的是一项非常乏味的业务，处于我认为在实体商场零售领域正在消亡的行业部分。
Frankly, to me, this stock looks like the kind of stock Buffett would prefer. It's a very cheap stock on paper, but it carries out a very boring business in a part of the sector that I feel is dying in the realm of physical mall retail.
有趣的是，我年轻时确实做过一段时间的梅西百货股票日内交易，甚至还从中赚了不少钱。但我绝不会认为这只股票适合长期投资，因为我认为网上购物，尤其是来自亚马逊的网上购物，是一个非常大的生存威胁。
Now, the funny thing is that I actually did day trading Macy's stock for a short period when I was younger. I even made a good profit from it too. But I would never consider this stock suitable for long-term investment. Because I see online shopping , especially from Amazon, as a very significant existential threat .
但正如我所说，考虑到该股在过去十年中下跌了约40%，并且比行业水平低35%以上，我能理解为什么伯克希尔会被这样有价值的投资所吸引。抱歉，它的远期市盈率比行业水平低不到35%。
But, as I said, I can understand why Berkshire would be attracted to such a valuable investment, given that the stock has fallen by about 40% in the past decade and is more than 35% below the sector level. Sorry, it's trading at less than 35% below the sector level on a forward price-to-earnings basis .
然而，管理层至少正试图通过一项他们称之为“大胆的新篇章”的新战略来改变现状，该计划旨在通过关闭150家不盈利的门店来消除不必要的开支，同时重新设计350家最强势的门店以改善客户体验。
However, management is at least trying to change things with a new strategy they call a "bold new chapter, " in which the plan aims to eliminate unnecessary expenses by closing 150 unprofitable locations , while redesigning 350 of their strongest stores to improve the customer experience.
他们也越来越多地转向他们的奢侈品牌，他们认为这些品牌将为他们带来更好的利润率。此外，有些人没有意识到梅西百货实际上拥有大量房地产，其中一些可能价值数十亿美元。总的来说，根据一些估计，其价值可能相当于公司的整个市值。
They are also increasingly turning to their luxury brands, which they believe will generate better profit margins for them . In addition , some people are unaware that Macy's actually owns a lot of real estate, some of which may be worth billions of dollars. In general, its value may equal the entire market value of the company, according to some estimates.
但我认为这些都不是长期投资这项业务的充分理由，长期投资这项业务本身。
But I don't think these are compelling enough reasons to invest in this business in the long term, in the business itself in the long term.
你仍然忽略了房间里“大象”的存在，即亚马逊。有那个巨大的野兽直接潜伏在你面前，你极不可能超越它。事实上，分析师预计梅西百货的销售额和利润在未来几年将会下降。
You are still ignoring the presence of the " big elephant" in the room, namely Amazon. With that enormous beast lurking directly in front of you, it is highly unlikely you will ever get past it . In fact, analysts expect Macy's sales and profits to decline in the coming years.
对我来说，这使它几乎不可触碰。我鼓励他们只是因为我喜欢亲自去实体购物中心。我真的很怀念那种怀旧的体验，所以我尽量时不时去一次。
And for me, this makes it almost untouchable. I only encourage them because I like going to the actual shopping malls myself. I really miss that nostalgic experience, so I try to go every now and then .
但事实是，在我看来，传统零售如今已不再是可行的投资领域。在零售方面，我只坚持亚马逊。因此，目前我会把它们排在排名的最后。
But the truth is that traditional retail is no longer a viable area for investment these days, in my opinion. I simply stick with Amazon when it comes to retail. Therefore, I will place them last in our rankings for the time being.
事实上，我会把这只股票的排名比梅西百货更低，因为我认为在这个价格上它是一笔非常糟糕的交易。
In fact, I would rank this stock even lower than Macy's because I think it's a very bad deal at this price.
这个频道对 $M 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。