万事达是一家稳定、现金流为正的公司,合理的较高市盈率为29倍;在450美元的买入目标价下,假设EPS增长放缓至12.7%,五年内可提供18.5%的复合年回报。
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万事达卡是我第二大持仓,占投资组合的13%。这是一个近20万美元的仓位,浮盈约5.2万美元。今年市场下跌时我大幅加仓了万事达卡。它一直是投资组合中表现较好的股票之一。如今看万事达卡,股价为每股595美元。
我为万事达卡设定的买入目标价是450美元。也就是说,万事达卡需要从当前价位(年初至今为596美元)一路下跌至今年的最低点以下。所以它需要经历一次像样的回调。当然,有些人可能会说,约瑟夫,这永远不会发生。
你永远不会以那个价格买入万事达卡。但这有可能发生。看看那些公司,它们的股价波动很大。有些在几个月内下跌20%、30%。有些在财报公布后下跌10%。公司股价在一周内可能大幅波动。
看看这只股票过去5年的波动性。这是世界上最稳定的公司之一,但我们看到过20%到30%的剧烈涨跌。再说一次,这里的目标是对这1万美元非常严格,只把它投向真正值得、真正处于有意义回调中的公司。
Mastercard, which is my second largest position. It's 13% of the portfolio. It's nearly a $200,000 position with around $52,000 in gains. I really bumped up Mastercard a lot during the dip this year. It's been one of the brighter spots in the portfolio. When I look at Mastercard today, it trades at $595 per share. And the buy target that I set for Mastercard is 450. So to put that in perspective, Mastercard would have to trade down from where it currently is year to date at the 596 all the way down to below the lowest point this year. So it' have to have a healthy dip. Now again, some of you may say, Joseph, that's never going to happen. You're never going to buy Mastercard at that price. But it could happen. When you look at companies, they trade around a lot. Some of them drop 20, 30% in a couple of months. Some of them dropped 10% after an earnings report. Companies can trade around a lot in a week's time. Look how volatile this stock has been over the past 5 years. And this is one of the most stable companies in the world. Yet, we've seen jagged spikes and dips of 20 to 30%. And again, the goal here is to be very strict with this $10,000 to make it only go towards a company that really deserves it, that's really in a meaningful dip.
现在,如果我们看看这是如何分解的,我们可以再次在这里加入一些假设。这是一个非常保守的假设,即万事达卡的每股收益增长率放缓至12%到13%左右。我们假设为12.7%。而万事达卡的增长速度要快得多。
它们的每股收益增长率在15%到20%甚至更高。所以12%是假设每股收益增长大幅减速。对于万事达卡,我认为这家公司的合理市盈率应该保持在相对较高的水平,比如29倍。它是一家现金流非常稳定、资本回报率高的公司。
它们没有大的资本支出。它们在扩大护城河和市场份额。它们正在向服务领域扩展。我不认为这家公司应该跌到20倍出头的市盈率。所以,我们设定合理的每股收益倍数为29倍。这意味着根据这些假设,未来5年我们将获得每年18.5%的复合回报。
这是一个非常高的回报。18%到19%的复利非常惊人。这将在短短几年内使你的资金翻倍以上。所以,我们以450美元的价格买入万事达卡。所以,我们以450美元的价格买入万事达卡。
Now, if we look at how this breaks down, we can again plug in some assumptions here. And this again is a very conservative assumption that Mastercard's earnings per share growth rate slow down to around 12 to 13%. We have it at 12.7%. Now Mastercard has been growing much faster. Their earnings per share growth rate is around 15 to 20% or even higher. So 12% is assuming a big deceleration in EPS growth. With Mastercard, this is one of the companies that I actually believe the appropriate multiple for the company should remain relatively high at like a 29. It's just a really stable cash flow positive capital-like company. They're not doing any big capex. They're expanding their mo and market share. They're growing into services. This is not one that I believe should trade down to the low 20s. So, we have an appropriate EPS multiple of 29. That means that looking forward with these assumptions up here for the next 5 years, we would get an 18.5% compounded return every single year. That's a really high return. Compounding at 18 to 19% is crazy. that well over doubles your money in just a few years. So, we add in Mastercard at the $450. So, we add in Mastercard at the $450.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $MA 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。