MAIN基本面稳健，并具备以溢价发行股份的竞争优势，但总股息率因不可持续的补充性派息而被高估，且信贷质量走弱正威胁其估值溢价。
逐段跳播
Main Street Capital 是有史以来最优秀的按月派息股票之一，原因有很多。然而，与过去一年里大多数 BDC 一样，它的表现确实很挣扎，尤其是与整体市场相比。如果只看相对标普 500 的表现，仅以价格回报计算，其跑输幅度至少在 30% 左右。
如果以总回报计算，情况会略有不同，但它仍然明显跑输。无论看过去一年还是年初至今，都是如此。
Main Street Capital is one of the greatest monthly dividend paying stocks of all time for a multitude of reasons. However, like most BDC's in the last year, they have really struggled, especially compared to the broader market.
If we just look at the performance versus the S&P 500, we're talking about underperformance of around 30% at least on a price return basis. If we do look at this on a total return basis, it's a little bit of a different story, but they're still significantly underperforming.
This is true whether we look at it over the last year or year to date.
那么，Main Street Capital 是什么？前面我们已经说过，它是一家 BDC。基本上，它为公开市场投资者提供了一种投资私营企业的途径。具体到 Main Street Capital，它主要是向规模较小的私营公司提供贷款。
有时它们会在放贷的同时持有股权，并会为外部投资者管理投资。
So, who is Main Street Capital? Well, again, we stated earlier they're BDC. Basically, they give public market investors a way to invest in private businesses. So for Main Street Capital, basically they lend capital to smaller private companies.
They sometimes own a stake alongside with the loan and they'll manage investments for outside investors.
然而，从历史上看，Main Street Capital 一直与众不同。过去 10 年，其股价累计上涨了 64%。而真正有意思的是：看看过去十年的总回报。对 Main Street Capital 来说，这相当亮眼。
在过去十年的大部分时间里，它实际上都明显跑赢标普 500，直到 2026 年出现这次大幅回调。而现在总体来看，其表现已基本与标普 500 持平。
However, historically, Main Street Capital has been different. Over the last 10 years, the share price has climbed by 64%. And here's what's really interesting. Look at the total returns over the past decade.
It's quite impressive for Main Street Capital. For a large majority of the last decade, they were actually significantly outperforming the S&P 500 until we saw the large pullback here in 2026.
And now overall, the performance has been pretty much on par with the S&P 500.
那么，Main Street Capital 为什么表现如此出色？总体而言，原因是多方面的，但看看这家 BDC 相对于同行的质量。如果我们放大看这里，这就是 Main Street Capital。
有几点需要指出。首先，我们可以在 BDC 数据库中看到，它拥有最强的基准股息覆盖率。股息覆盖得非常好，但请记住，我们说的是基准股息覆盖率，而不是总股息覆盖率。
Now, why has Main Street Capital performed so well? Well, overall, it's due to a multitude of reasons, but look at the quality of this BDC compared to their peers. If we just zoom in right here is Main Street Capital.
There's a couple of things that we need to point out. To start, we can see in the BDC database, they have the strongest base dividend coverage. The dividend is very well covered, but keep in mind, we're talking about base dividend coverage, not total dividend coverage.
我们可以看到，这是一家历史上一直在增长股息的 BDC。这是一家浮动利率债务很低的 BDC，这一点非常重要。而或许最重要的是，它是一家内部管理的 BDC，这意味着管理层与股东利益一致。
从历史上看，它的每股有形价值实际上一直在正增长。也就是说，内在价值在增长。这是他们在投资者演示中强调的一点：长期专注于为股东实现净资产价值和每股经常性股息的可持续增长。
We can see this is a BDC that historically has been growing dividends. This is a BDC, and this is very important, that has low variable rate debt. And perhaps most importantly, it's an internally management BDC, meaning management is aligned with shareholders.
And historically, they've actually seen positive tangible value per share growth. So intrinsic value is growing. This is something they highlight in their investor presentation.
Long-term focus on delivering our shareholders sustainable growth in net asset value and recurring dividends per share.
Main Street 从未下调过其月度股息率。对一家 BDC 来说，这是了不起的成就。但这也正是我必须开始指出我个人对 Main Street Capital 的担忧之一的地方，这也是你需要了解的。
当我们看 BDC 的起始收益率时，在大多数软件上通常只能看到表面收益率。我知道我之前强调过这一点，但这太重要了。这就是那个收益率，Main Street Capital 大约是 7.7% 到 7.8%。这并不能很好地代表你实际能获得的收益率。
Maine has never decreased its monthly dividend rate. An incredible accomplishment for BDC. But this is also where I have to start to point out one of the concerns I personally have with Main Street Capital, and it's something you need to be aware of as well.
When we look at the starting yield for BDC's, typically on most softwares, we only see the headline yield. I know I've highlighted this before, but it's so important. This is the yield.
It's roughly 7.7 7.8% for Main Street Capital. That's not a good representation of the actual yield you'll get.
如果我们放大来看，看看 Main Street Capital。我们可以看到，基准股息实际上是 5.7%，而总股息是 7.8%。那么，两者之间的实际区别是什么？基准股息在这里，用灰色表示。
这是理论上你应该预期始终能拿到的部分，而绿色部分是补充股息。所以，当你把补充股息与月度基准股息相加，就得到了总收益率。我们可以看到，他们近来支付了大量补充股息，而只要有能力，他们的目标就是这样做。
If we zoom in, let's take a look at Main Street Capital. What we can see is the base dividend is actually 5.7% and the total dividend is 7.8%. Now, what's the actual difference between the two?
Well, the base dividend is here in the gray. It's what you theoretically should be expecting to always get, while the green is the supplemental dividend. So, when you add supplemental with the monthly base dividends, you get your total yield.
So, we can see they've been paying a lot of supplemental dividends as of late, and they make it their goal to do exactly that whenever they can.
然而，问题在这里。是的，我们可以看到基准股息覆盖率，5.7% 的收益率，基准股息覆盖得很好，覆盖率为 133%。问题出在总股息收益率上。现在，如果我们看管理层在财报中给出的近期展望，他们表示：“我们预计 2026 年第三季度税前可分配净投资收益至少为每股 97 美分。”
每股 97 美分。先记住这个数字。回头看 Seeking Alpha 这里。我们可以看到，他们未来派发的股息总额约为 4.38 美元。现在，如果你拿这个数字做个粗略计算，会得出什么？
如果我们将 438 除以大约 4，等于每股 19 美元。大约 110，1.095。这就是他们每个季度必须产生多少可分配净投资收益，才能使总收益率可持续。所以管理层现在实际上是在告诉我们，他们目前支付的补充股息，过去几个月支付的补充股息，基于他们目前产生的可分配净投资收益，是不可持续的。
However, here's the issue. Yes, we can see base dividend coverage, the 5.7% yield, the base dividends is well covered, 133% coverage. Here's the issue with the total dividend yield.
Right now, if we look at the recent outlook management gave us from the earnings report, they stated, "We expect third quarter of 2026 distributable net investment income before tax of at least 97 cents per share." 97 cents per share.
Remember that number for a moment. Take a look back here on Seeking Alpha. We can see the total amount they're paying out in dividends forward looking is about $4.38. Now, if you take that number and basically do some napkin math, what does that turn into?
Well, if we divide 438 by around 4, it equals $19 per share. About $110, 1.095. That's how much they'd have to generate each quarter in distributable net investment income for the total yield to be sustainable.
So management is literally telling us right now the supplemental dividend they're currently paying out. The supplemental dividend they've paid out over the last few months right now is not sustainable based on the distributable net investment income they're producing.
所以现实是，Seeking Alpha 这里显示的收益率——Seeking Alpha 是我非常喜欢的一个平台——但这个收益率并不准确。基本上，你看的任何软件都是如此。所以，在考察 Main Street Capital 时，这一点你必须牢记。目前实际收益率会低于表面收益率所显示的水平。
So the reality is this yield here that's seeking Alpha, which is a platform I do absolutely love, but that yield is not accurate. It's basically true for any software you're looking at.
So that's something that is imperative you keep in mind when looking at Main Street Capital. The actual yield will be lower right now than the headline yield is showing.
既然我们已经说明了这一点，关于 Main Street Capital 还有一点需要指出。有好消息，也有坏消息。从历史上看，Main Street Capital 在长期增长净资产价值方面，相对于其他 BDC 做得非常出色。
本质上，这就是他们在增长内在价值。这将带来股价上涨，并且大多数时候有助于带来可持续的分派，甚至分派增长。因此，由于这是一家历史上可持续增长净资产价值的 BDC，投资者愿意支付溢价。
这基本上在公司几乎整个历史中都是如此，除了 2020 年的崩盘。
Now that we've made that point, there's something else we need to point out about Main Street Capital. And there's good news and there's bad news. Now, historically, Main Street Capital has done a phenomenal job relative to other BDCs at growing their net asset value over time.
Essentially, this is them growing their intrinsic value. This is going to lead to share price appreciation and ultimately most of the time will help lead to sustainable distributions and even distribution growth.
And so since this is a BDC that has historically sustainably grown net asset value, investors are willing to pay a premium. And that's essentially been the case for almost the company's entire history with the exception of the 2020 crash.
但看看这家 BDC 过去 5 年的估值。平均而言，其股价与每股有形账面价值之比为 1.65。目前，他们非常接近其 1.67 的平均水平。所以这一切意味着，当我们看 2025 年末的净资产价值时，大约是 33.33。
目前股价约为 5586。他们正以溢价估值交易。这告诉我们，大约是 1.67 倍的溢价估值。
But look at the valuation this BDC has seen over the last 5 years. On average, they sat at a price to tangible book value per share of 1.65. Right now, they're sitting very close to their average of 1.67.
So all this means is when we look at the net asset value 2025 at the end it was about 33.33. Right now the stock is trading at about 5586. They're trading at a premium valuation.
That's what it's telling us about a 1.67 times premium valuation.
如果他们能够持续增长每股净资产价值，那么这个估值可能是合理的。大多数人都明白这一点，但以下是他们不明白的：这对 Main Street Capital 来说究竟是多大的结构性优势。
为什么这是结构性优势？就像 REITs 一样，BDC 依法必须将其收益的 90%，即应税收益，以股息形式派发出去。那么这意味着什么？这意味着，为了继续增长、为了满足所有投资需求，他们要么承担债务，要么发行新股。
而对于像 Main Street Capital 这样目前在高利率环境下运营的 BDC，很多时候他们会选择发行股票。
Now this valuation could be justified if they can continue to grow net asset value per share over time. Most people understand this but here's what they don't understand. Just how much of a structural advantage this actually is for Main Street Capital.
Why is this a structural advantage? Well, exactly like REITs, BDC's are required by law to pay out 90% of their earnings, their taxable earnings in the form of a dividend. So, what does that mean?
Well, it means in order to continue to grow in order to fulfill all their investment needs, they can either take on debt or issue new shares. And for a BDC like Main Street Capital, currently operating in a very high interest rate environment, a lot of the times they elect to issue shares.
那么，在我们的股票筛选器上看 Main Street Capital。往下看流通股数量。就像我说的，过去几年他们发行了不少股票。事实上，你会注意到的一点是，在近期新闻中，他们宣布计划通过股权发行再出售最多 2000 万股。
这大约是一个月前宣布的。通常，投资者看到这个会认为不是好消息。他们将其视为股份稀释，这在一定程度上是对的，除非公司能够从发行股票所获得的资本中产生正的投资回报率。从历史上看，这正是 Main Street Capital 能够做到的。
So, look at Main Street Capital on our stock screener. Come down here and look at shares outstanding. Like I said, they've issued quite a bit of shares over the last few years.
In fact, one of the things you'll notice is in recent headlines, they announced they're planning to sell up to 20 million more shares through an equity offering. This was announced just around a month ago.
Typically, investors look at this and think it's not good news. They see this as share dilution, and that is true to some degree unless the company can generate a positive ROI on the capital that they generate from issuing shares.
Now, historically, that is what Main Street Capital has been able to do.
但这里正是事情变得有意思的地方。还记得他们以溢价交易吗？突然之间，这形成了一个极其强大的飞轮。想想看。这是Main Street Capital最大的竞争优势之一。他们的竞争优势在于能够以高于净资产价值的价格发行股票。
如果Main Street Capital的净资产价值约为33美元，而股价为55.74美元，那么公司每发行一股就能获得50美元的新资本，同时只给新股东约33美元现有净资产的索取权。
因此，这笔交易整体上对现有股东极具增值性。所以，这里再次出现了一个强大的飞轮。他们优质的资产组合和净资产价值的历史性增长带来了溢价估值。而这种溢价估值让Main Street能够以极好的估值发行股票，筹集额外资本来资助更多投资，这最终也将支撑盈利和股息。所以现在你能明白为什么这如此强大了。
But here's where things get interesting. Remember how they trade at a premium? All of a sudden, this creates an incredibly powerful flywheel. Think about it. This is one of Main Street Capital's biggest competitive advantages.
Their competitive advantage is being able to issue shares above net asset value. If Main Street Capital has a net asset value of roughly $33, but the stock is trading at $55.74, the company receives $50 of new capital when they issue a share while giving the new shareholder a claim on roughly $33 of existing net assets.
So the transaction overall is incredibly accreditive to existing shareholders. So again, there's a powerful flywheel taking place here. Their quality portfolio and historic growth of net asset value leads to a premium valuation.
And this premium valuation allows Main Street to issue stocks at a great valuation, raising additional capital to fund additional investments, which will also end up supporting earnings and dividends. So now you can see why this is so powerful.
然而，有一个潜在问题我们确实需要指出。在他们最近的财报中，管理层做出了这样的表述。我们每股净资产价值在本季度有所增长，主要归因于我们股权发行的增值影响，以及我们中低端市场投资组合净公允价值增加的影响。
所以基本上，他们主要受益于我刚才解释的那个飞轮。然而，有点令人担忧的是，他们净资产价值增长的主要原因正是这个。除此之外，信贷质量也有所减弱。他们的非应计投资按成本计算升至投资组合的约4%，这是Main Street Capital一段时间以来看到的最高水平。
如果他们投资组合的整体信贷质量继续减弱，我不知道投资者还愿意支付溢价多久。
However, there is one potential issue we do need to point out. In their recent earnings report, management made this statement. Our net asset value per share increased in the quarter primarily due to the accreditive impact of our equity issuances and the impact of a net fair value increase in our lower middle market investment portfolio.
So basically they primarily benefited from the flywheel I just explained. However, it's a little bit concerning the primary reason they grew net asset value was due to this reason.
On top of this credit quality also weakened. their non-accrral investments rose to roughly 4% of the portfolio at cost which is the highest main street capital has seen in some time.
If the overall credit quality of their portfolio keeps weakening I don't know how long investors would be willing to pay a premium.
现在，公平地说，整体信贷质量仍显著优于同行。我们还必须指出的一点是，许多投资者对这些BDC的一个不满是，它们向软件和科技公司发放了大量贷款。这些公司目前在AI时代举步维艰。所以，我们确实需要指出的是，Main Street Capital的投资组合中软件/科技敞口仅约15%，这是BDC行业中最低的敞口率之一。
所以，这又是Main Street Capital的另一个优势。
Now to be fair overall credit quality is still significantly better than that of their peers. And one of the things we do also have to point out is one of the issues a lot of investors have had with these BDCs is they have given significant amount of loans to software and tech companies.
These are companies that are struggling right now during the age of AI. So, the thing we do need to point out though is Main Street Capital's portfolio is only about 15% software/tech exposure, which is one of the lowest exposure rates in the BDC sector.
So, again, this is another advantage for Main Street Capital.
为了做出公正的评估，我们可能确实需要指出的Main Street Capital的另一个优势是，利率看起来将在更长时间内保持较高水平。我们甚至可能在年底前再次加息。很多时候这实际上对BDC有利，因为它们获得的净投资收入实际上会增加，因为它们发放的贷款很多时候是浮动利率贷款。
所以，只要它们不因此次加息而出现违约大幅增加，它们就应该带来更多净投资收入。
The other advantage for Main Street Capital that we probably do need to point out to have a fair assessment is that it looks like rates are going to stay higher for longer. We might even get another rate hike by the end of the year.
And a lot of the times this is actually beneficial for BDC's because the net investment income they receive actually increases due to the loans they've given out a lot of the time being variable rate loans.
So as long as they don't see a substantial increase in defaults as a result of this higher interest rate, they should bring in more net investment income.
那么现在让我们花点时间谈谈估值。是的，最好的估值方法可能是确定我们愿意支付什么样的估值倍数，但过去5年Main Street Capital的这个倍数确实波动很大。他们的估值倍数曾低至约1.28倍每股可达到价值，而近期股价的上涨实际上是由于估值倍数的扩张，或许是因为我们看到利率上升并保持较高水平。
So now let's take a moment to talk about valuation. Yes, the best way to value is probably by determining what type of valuation multiple we're willing to pay, but this has certainly fluctuated a lot for Main Street Capital over the last 5 years.
They've been as low as a valuation multiple of about 1.28 times price attainable value per share and the recent runup in share price is really due to expansion in the valuation multiple perhaps due to the fact that we're seeing rates go and stay higher.
但我们也可以通过股息贴现模型的视角来对Main Street Capital进行估值。如果我们跳到我们的股票估值表，让我们到这里来输入Main Street Capital。如果我们跳到我们的股息贴现模型，让我们放大看看。
那么，以下是我们关于Main Street Capital能看到的情况。如果我们假设股息增长率为0%，该股价值约为每股50美元。这意味着约10%的下行空间。现在，我确实认为短期内我们显然会看到补充股息下降，但随着净资产价值理论上应像历史上那样继续增长，这将使公司能够随着时间推移继续增长其基础股息。
所以，如果我们谈论长期可持续的分派增长，如果他们能实现1%，这已经意味着较当前价格有少许上行空间。所以，实际上，市场定价反映的约为1%的分派增长。如果他们能实现2%，公允价值突然跃升至每股66.38美元，意味着19%到20%的上行空间。
But we can also value Main Street Capital through the lens of a dividend discount model. If we jump over to our stock valuation sheet, let's come up here and plug in Main Street Capital.
If we jump over to our dividend discount model, let's go ahead and zoom in. So, here's what we can see in regards to Main Street Capital. If we assume 0% dividend growth, the stock is worth about $50 a share.
That implies around 10% downside. Now, I do think obviously in the short term we'll see supplemental dividends decline, but as net asset value should theoretically continue to grow as it has been historically speaking, that will allow the company to continue to grow their base dividend over time.
So, if we're talking about long-term sustainable distribution growth, if they can achieve 1%, that already implies just a little bit of upside from current prices. So, really, the market is pricing in about 1% distribution growth.
If they can get 2% all of a sudden fair value jumps up to $66.38 per share implying 19 to 20% upside.
所以，该股的估值并不算不合理，尽管相对于同行它确实以溢价交易。但这对Main Street Capital来说一直如此，而股息贴现模型揭示了原因所在。
So again the stock is not trading at an unreasonable valuation even though it is trading at a premium relative to its peers. But that's always been the case for Main Street Capital and the dividend discount model reveals why that's the case.
然而，你不能忽视、很多人忽视的一点是，你在这里看到的收益率并不是你实际获得的真实收益率。我认为未来一两年它很可能会更低，因为补充股息确实会被削减。
However, what you can't miss, what a lot of people miss is this yield you're seeing here will not be the true yield you get. I think it will very likely be lower over the next year or two as supplemental dividends do get reduced.
同样值得指出的是，该股的做空比例现在极高，已超过10%。市场很多人仍然非常担心发放给这些软件和科技公司的贷款，这也是为什么这么多BDC在过去一年遭到重创的一个重要原因。
It's also worth pointing out that short interest for this stock is incredibly high at now over 10%. A lot of the market is still very concerned about the loans that have been given out to these software and tech companies and it's a big reason why so many of these BDCs have been absolutely hammered over the last year.
所以从根本上说，Main Street Capital仍然显著强于同行。看看股息美元BDC数据库就很清楚。
So fundamentally, Main Street Capital is still significantly stronger than their peers. That's clear when you look at the dividend dollar BDC database.
观察点
这个频道对 $MAIN 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。