由于在新技术上资本开支过高，梅赛德斯缺乏护城河；当前7%的股息率风险较高，且在低迷期可能被下调。
逐段跳播
同样，梅赛德斯，
Similarly, Mercedes,
那么，欧洲公司凭借 7% 的股息率会更好吗？首先我要说，在这一点上我同意特朗普。这是梅赛德斯的债券概览。看看他们随着时间推移所发行的票息价格。平均下来会是多少？1%。而且有很多更早的债券是 01。
所以，这太疯狂了。欧洲的补贴，然后你有融资部门以几乎零成本从欧洲央行拿钱，再以 4% 卖出去，就这样把车卖出去，这太疯狂了。
Now, are European better with 7% dividend yields? Let me first say that I agree with Trump on this. This is the bonds overview from Mercedes. Look at the coupon prices that they have issued that over time.
On average, what would that be? 1%. And there are many older bonds at 01. So, this is crazy. European subsidies where then you have the financing arms that take money from the ECB at practically zero charge 4% and sell their cars like that which is crazy.
而他们在做什么？史上最大的产品发布计划。又是新车、新技术，一切都是新的，不断地一直投资于新东西。而我的朋友们，那不是赚钱的方式。根本没有任何护城河。而且考虑到技术的发展，三年之后，他们又会重新发明一遍又一遍的新东西。
And what are they doing? Biggest product launch program in history. Again, new cars, new tech, everything new, constantly always investing in the new. And my friends, that's not how one makes money.
There's absolutely no modes. And given the development in tech, three years from now, they will be reinventing again the new and the new.
是的，有 Rapala 这个品牌价值。Rapala 是什么？只让我想起我小时候去钓鱼时用过的一种米诺鱼饵。但好吧，他们说品牌价值 500 亿。让我们把它和 450 亿的市值比一比。
实际上他们可以卖掉这个品牌，为股东赚钱。全球粉丝基础，一切都很棒。
Yes, there is the Rapala brand value. What is Rapala? Just reminds me of a mino we used to use to go fishing when I was a kid. But okay, they say 50 billion brand value. Let's compare that to the market cap is 45 billion.
Practically they could sell the brand and make money for shareholders. Global fan base, everything great.
梅赛德斯，是的，它是高品质。它是一辆好车。销量，中期战略目标，增长，呃，电动车在增加，它在欧洲正被摧毁、被重击，我们稍后会讨论。永远是目标、目标、目标。然后你看到目标是上升的，但现实是下降的。
Mercedes, yes, it is quality. It's a great car. Sales volume, mid strategic goals, growth, uh increasing electrical vehicles, it's getting destroyed, hammered in Europe as we'll discuss in a moment.
Always targets, targets, targets. And then you see the target is up but the reality is down.
而当我们为买一辆新车做研究时，一个选项是梅赛德斯 Eco SUV，或者说这是 EcoE。但我看了那里的价格，像这样一辆新车要 9 万，而这是一辆已经开了一年的车，跑了 12,000，已经贬值了 30%。这太疯狂了。
And as we were researching for a new car, one option is the Mercedes Eco SUV or this is the EcoE. But I looked at the prices there and a new car like this costed 90K and this is a year old car with 12,000 already depreciated by 30%. That's crazy.
新技术正在到来。Robbo 税，每个人都在合作，在某个时刻去做这件事。它会奏效。它对每个人都会奏效。但不会有利润。完全抛弃旧的，而他们必须去造新的。
New technologies coming. Robbo taxes, everyone is partnering, doing it at some moment. It will work. It will work for everyone. There will be no profits. Completely throwing away the old and they have to make the new.
然而，由于成本原因，他们正疯狂地把德国的产能削减到少生产 200 万辆。他们需要改善这一点，16% 的销量在美国，还带着关税。好吧，他们正试图把那里维持住。欧洲还算可以。对欧洲公司来说，中国表现不好，尽管有重大转变。他们仍然领先，但那些重大转变正来得非常非常快。
However, they are lowering crazily the capacity to 2 million units less production in Germany because of the costs. They need to improve that 16% of sales is in the US with tariffs with this.
Okay, they are trying to keep it up there. Europe doing okay still. China not doing good for European companies despite major shifts. They are still leading but those major shifts are coming very very fast.
他们的目标又是那个永远存在的承诺，利润率要达到 8% 到 10%，连特斯拉都想要那样的利润率，但没有人能长期达到那样的利润率。而你可以看到，现在营收略低于、略低于指引。然而，股息率现在是 7%。
7% 已经算是不错了。但话又说回来，我们有衰退，我们有更多问题，全球放缓，然后他们就会削减股息。然后你就会看到那些低点，那些价值投资的低点。到那时候再叫醒我。
Their target is again the promise always there margins going to 8 to 10% even Tesla wanted those margins but nobody can ever hit those margins for a longer time. And you can see here now revenue is slightly below slightly below guidance.
However, the dividend yield is now 7%. 7% is already something. But then again, we have the recession, we have more issues, a global slowdown, and then they cut the dividend. And then you have those lows that are value investing lows. Wake me up on those.
观察点
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