麦当劳（MCD）估值昂贵，在当前利率环境下增长缓慢且缺乏低价优势，应予以回避。
逐段跳播
关于麦当劳的评论很多。评论多也意味着股价已经下跌，市盈率变得有吸引力，股息也变高了。我已经讨论过麦当劳几次了，大概每年一次。所以，我们需要看看目前在回报方面的情况。
There are many comments about McDonald's. When there are many comments, it also means that the stock has fallen, that the price-to-earnings ratio is becoming attractive, and that dividends are becoming higher. I have discussed McDonald's a few times already, probably once a year. So, we need to see where we stand now in terms of the returns side.
为了比较，麦当劳已经被分析过了。在这里。我会把它添加到最新的讨论中，同时也有视频链接。所以，你也可以从那里继续，但让我们继续讨论麦当劳。
For comparison purposes, McDonald's has already been analyzed. Here it is. I will add it here to the latest discussions when we also have the video link. So, you can continue from there as well, but let's move on to McDonald's.
现在，如果我们看麦当劳的股息股票，股息支付率是100%。如果股息增长5%，如果我们取最终倍数25，这意味着股息收益率为4%，那么内在价值低于200。
Now, if we look at McDonald's dividend stock, the dividend payout ratio is 100% . If the dividends grow by 5%, and if we take a final multiple of 25, which means a dividend yield of 4%, then the intrinsic value is less than 200.
如果我们更乐观，按5%增长，但满足于2%或2.5%的股息收益率，那么麦当劳是合理估值的。
If we are more optimistic, by 5%, but are satisfied with a dividend yield of 2% or say 2.5%, then McDonald's is fairly valued .
然而，如果你更悲观，说想要5%的股息收益率，那么当前价值与当前股价相差甚远。这将是一个价值投资的情景。所以，从这个角度来看，我可以更大胆一点，在这里放15，那么那里的价值投资的现值大约在115、16左右。
However, if you are more pessimistic and say that you want a 5% dividend yield, then the current value is very far from the current share price . This would be a value investment scenario. So, from this perspective, I can be a little bolder and put 15 here, and then the present value of the value investment there would be around 115, 16.
所以，在目前的水平上，我们离安全边际很远，离任何东西都很远。股价在年初要高得多，但请记住，年初每个人都预期利率会下降。这是麦当劳的关键。
So, at the current levels, we are far from the margins of safety, far from anything. The stock price was much higher at the beginning of the year, but keep in mind that everyone at the beginning of the year was expecting interest rates to fall . This is the key when it comes to McDonald's.
利率没有下降。10年期国债收益率为4.77。当你比较麦当劳2%的回报时，麦当劳在300的股价下并不吸引人。
Interest rates did not decrease. The 10-year Treasury bonds are worth 4.77. When you compare McDonald's 2% return, McDonald's is not attractive at a share price of 300.
他们需要更高的回报。股价需要下跌。那时，当利率为2%时，麦当劳2%的股息收益率是可以接受的。现在，人们可能需要麦当劳5%的股息收益率。
They need a higher return. The stock price needs to go down. At that time, when interest rates were at 2%, a 2% dividend yield from McDonald's was acceptable. Now, one might need a 5% dividend yield from McDonald's.
这也是为什么该股长期以来几乎没有取得什么成就的原因。如果我们稍微看一下业务，是的，它增长5%，有一些回购，利润由于这些回购增长6%。所以，没有什么特别的。
This is also why the stock has practically not achieved much over time. If we look a little at the business, yes, it is growing by 5% with a few buybacks, and profits are growing by 6% thanks to those buybacks. So, nothing exceptional.
他们可能会找到新的方法，但在金融市场的某一天内，他们不太可能增长超过个位数。
They may find new ways, but it is unlikely they will grow more than single digits during a single day of the financial markets.
正如你在这里看到的，特许经营体系很好，但增长缓慢，没有什么惊人的。如果我们回到2019年并与之比较，嗯，几个百分点的增长，这就是麦当劳所提供的。
As you can see here, the franchise system is good, but growth is slow over time, and nothing spectacular. If we go back to 2019 and compare it to now, well , growth of a few percentage points , that's what McDonald's offers.
由于回购，他们在每股收益方面略好一些，然后放缓，现在他们的重点更多在股息上。因此，这是一个与利率相关的游戏。股息收益率仍然相对较低。
They were slightly better in terms of earnings per share due to buybacks, then slowed down, and now their focus is more on dividends. Therefore, this is a game related to interest rates. The dividend yield is still relatively low.
当然，如果利率下降，你将在股息之外获得20-30%的收益。
Of course, if interest rates fall, you will make gains of 20-30% on top of dividends.
如果利率保持不变，即使麦当劳公司业绩表现良好，其股价也会下跌。从评估的这个方面来看，我们可以将其加入我们的观察名单，只是为了好玩。然后，如果由于其防御性特征股价下跌，我们可以根据价格将其移入买入名单。
If interest rates remain the same, McDonald's stock will fall even if the company is performing well. From that aspect of the evaluation , we can add it to our box just for fun. Then, if the stock price falls due to its defensive nature, we can then move it, depending on the price, towards the buy box.
彼得·林奇在他的书中说：“如果缓慢增长的公司定价不是非常便宜，那就避开它们。”麦当劳的定价并不便宜。麦当劳很贵。避开它。
Peter Lynch said in his book: "Avoid slow-growing companies if they are not priced very cheaply." McDonald's is not priced cheaply. McDonald's is expensive. Avoid it.
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。