麦当劳(MCD)是最受青睐的十大股票之一;公允价值为330美元,意味着12-18个月内有26%的上涨空间,这得益于技术驱动的成本削减和高利润率,尽管面临健康趋势和经济方面的不利因素。
逐段跳播
麦当劳是我目前最喜欢的另一只股票,我将其排在前 10 名。我计算出麦当劳股票的公平价值为每股 330 美元。当前市场价格为 262 美元。这意味着未来 12 到 18 个月内将上涨 26%。
McDonald's is another of my favorite stocks at the moment. I ranked it among the top 10 stocks. I calculated a fair value for McDonald's stock at $330 per share. The current market price is $262. This leaves it with a 26% rise over the next 12 to 18 months.
我最喜欢的麦当劳积极因素之一,我认为市场低估了它,是其在多个类别中的技术创新,这可能对麦当劳的短期和长期都有利。食品配送网络和这项技术的普及使麦当劳能够在更多场合触达更多消费者。
你不再需要离开家就能吃到麦当劳。此外,公司还受益于自动化和机器人技术的改进。我提到的食品配送网络不再需要人类来配送。在未来五年内,越来越多的配送将由机器人完成,这将降低服务这些客户的成本。
此外,麦当劳正在将其门店和地点整合自动售货亭。这减少了对收银员的需求,并降低了每个麦当劳门店的劳动力成本。总的来说,这些创新是麦当劳几十年来从未在其业务中见过的。我很兴奋地看到公司如何在运营中成功整合和使用这些新技术。
One of my favorite positive factors for McDonald's, which I think the market underestimates, is its technological innovation across multiple categories, which could benefit McDonald's in the short and long term. Food delivery networks and the spread of this technology allow McDonald's to reach more consumers on more occasions. You no longer have to leave your home to eat McDonald's. In addition, the company benefits from improvements in automation and robotics. The food delivery networks I mentioned no longer need humans to deliver them. Over the next five years, more and more of these deliveries will be carried out by robots, which will reduce the cost of servicing these customers. In addition, McDonald's is integrating automated kiosks into its stores and locations. This reduces the need for cashiers and lowers labor costs at every McDonald's location. Collectively, these innovations are something McDonald's hasn't seen in its business for decades. I am excited to see how the company will prove successful in integrating and using these new technologies in its operations.
第二个积极因素类似于我强调的百事可乐的积极因素。几十年来,麦当劳已经学会了如何以相对较低的成本为客户提供巨大的价值。你提供给客户的价值与提供该价值的成本之间的差异使麦当劳能够实现餐饮行业最好的利润率。
The second positive factor is similar to the positive factor I highlighted with PepsiCo. Over the decades, McDonald's has learned how to deliver great value to customers at a relatively low cost. This difference between the value you provide to customers and the cost of providing that value allows McDonald's to achieve some of the best margins in the restaurant industry.
当然,除了特许经营商业模式之外,麦当劳的营业利润率接近 50%。这些利润率实际上与微软或甚至苹果等软件公司的利润率非常相似。我相信麦当劳的营业利润率实际上高于苹果的营业利润率。因此,我相信这是任何业务中都具有吸引力的特征。
And of course, in addition to the franchise business model, McDonald's achieves operating profit margins approaching 50%. These are the kinds of margins that, in fact, are very similar to the margins of software companies like Microsoft or even Apple. I believe that McDonald's operating profit margin is actually higher than Apple's operating profit margin. Therefore, this is something I believe is an attractive feature in any business.
我不打算花太多时间谈论麦当劳的负面方面,因为它们与我在百事可乐中谈到的负面方面非常相似。减肥治疗和消费者要求的健康选择导致麦当劳销售额下降,这对麦当劳来说比百事可乐更难恢复。因为百事可乐销售的实际产品对公司成功的重要性不如麦当劳销售的实际产品。
该公司几十年来一直致力于为其销售的特定产品建立供应链,如果它转移焦点,可能会更加困难。不要误会我的意思,百事可乐转向更健康的选择也会很困难,但我认为麦当劳产品组合向更健康选择的转变将更加困难。
I'm not going to spend much time talking about the negative aspects of McDonald's because they are very similar to the negative aspects I talked about with PepsiCo. Weight loss treatments and healthy options demanded by consumers have led to a decline in McDonald's sales, something that will be harder for McDonald's to recover from than for PepsiCo. Because the actual products that PepsiCo sells are less important to the company's success than the actual products that McDonald's sells. The company has worked for decades to build a supply chain for specific products it sells, and if it shifts its focus away from that, it could be more difficult. Don't get me wrong, it will also be difficult for PepsiCo to shift to healthier options, but I think the shift in McDonald's product portfolio towards healthier options will be more difficult.
至于经济逆风,它们非常相似。人们可花的钱更少,外出就餐通常比在家准备更贵。因此,人们外出就餐的频率降低,导致整个行业放缓,麦当劳当然是其中的领先公司。随着消费者寻求更高的性价比,它正在获得市场份额,并且可以说在快餐领域提供了最好的价值,但它仍然容易受到这些挑战的负面影响。
As for the economic headwinds, they are very similar. People have less money to spend, and eating out is usually more expensive than preparing it at home. Therefore, people ate out less often, resulting in a slowdown across the entire industry, of which McDonald's is of course a leading company. It is gaining market share as consumers seek greater value for their money, and arguably offers the best value in the fast-food sector, but it remains vulnerable to being negatively affected by these challenges.
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。