MCD 的吸引力下降；销售放缓、通胀以及偏低的每股收益增长预期限制了未来回报，除非估值倍数扩张。
逐段跳播
接下来看一个家喻户晓的名字——麦当劳，股票代码 MCD。这又是一个例子：是的，该股正处在52周低点附近，过去一年下跌了近15%。但问题不止于此，其5年回报率也非常不理想。
Now, we come to a popular household name. We have McDonald's, stock ticker MCD. And this is another example of a stock, yes, trading right at their 52- week low, down almost 15% in the last year.
But it's not just that. 5-year returns have been very substandard as well.
真正有意思的是，该股目前的估值倍数正处于过去5年来的最低水平。其平均市盈率约为24倍，而目前市盈率约为19倍，对该股而言处于历史低位。
And what's really interesting is they're now trading at their lowest valuation multiple in the last 5 years for this stock. The average PE multiple has been about 24. They're currently trading at around a 19 PE multiple, historically low for this stock.
所以，我们不得不再次问自己，为什么会这样？可以指出几个不同的原因，但首先，如果看最近的财报，就能说明很多问题。第二季度全球同店销售额仅增长1.3%。仅仅1.3%。这低于通胀率。
因此，按实际购买力计算，这实际上是下降的。在美国，增长0.8%。国际直营市场增长1.5%。国际发展许可市场增长约1.9%。合并营收增长约4%，但按固定汇率计算仅增长2%。所以你能看出其中的问题。
So again, we do have to ask ourself, why is that the case? Well, there's a couple of different things that we could point out, but just to start, if we look at the recent earnings report, this will tell a lot of the story.
Global comparable sales increased in the second quarter by just 1.3%. Just 1.3%. That's below the rate of inflation. So, in true purchasing power terms, this actually declined.
In the US, it was up by 0.8%. International operated markets 1.5%. International developmental license markets increased by about 1.9%. Consolidated revenues increased by about 4% but it was only up 2% in constant currency terms. So you can see the issues with this.
从历史上看，该股在很大程度上也是一只出色的股息增长股。你会看到股息率攀升至接近3%，而通常他们的股息增长率略高于7%。
Now historically this has also been an incredible dividend grower for the most part. What you'll see is the yields climbing close to 3% and typically they've grown the dividend at a little above 7%.
你会注意到，麦当劳有一套很有意思的资本配置策略，因为目前其自由现金流派息率约为71.18%。表面上看，这比很多人希望看到的水平略高一些，但这已接近过去十年的平均水平。可以看到，大约10年来它一直处于这一区间附近。
所以，这无疑告诉我们一些关于他们在资本配置方面优先事项的信息。
Now, what you'll notice is McDonald's has an interesting capital allocation strategy because right now their free cash payout ratio is about 71.18%. Which on the surface level seems a little bit higher than a lot of people like to see it, but that's been close to what the average has been over the last decade.
You can see it's been close to that range for about 10 years now. So, this certainly tells us something about what their priorities are in terms of capital allocation.
资本配置策略，因为目前其自由现金流派息率约为71.18%。表面上看，这比很多人希望看到的水平略高一些，但这已接近过去十年的平均水平。可以看到，大约10年来它一直处于这一区间附近。
所以，这无疑告诉我们一些关于他们在资本配置方面优先事项的信息。
allocation strategy because right now their free cash payout ratio is about 71.18%. Which on the surface level seems a little bit higher than a lot of people like to see it, but that's been close to what the average has been over the last decade.
You can see it's been close to that range for about 10 years now. So, this certainly tells us something about what their priorities are in terms of capital allocation.
那么，我们知道什么？大约95%的麦当劳餐厅是特许经营的。为什么这一点如此重要？我想跳到利润表上的盈利能力部分，你就会明白原因。看看麦当劳。这里讲述了一个故事，我之前也指出过。看看过去十年每股收益是如何增长的，尽管营收先是下滑、随后又开始回升，而利润率却大幅扩张，从低于40%的38.5，上升到如今的57.4。
为什么会这样？因为这是他们转向特许经营模式的十年。这种模式的经济效益极具吸引力，使它成为一门非常资本密集型的生意。作为参考，2025年麦当劳特许经营餐厅的营收约为165亿，而这些餐厅的直接费用约为26亿。
公司自营餐厅创造了约97亿，但直接费用为83亿。所以特许经营餐厅的利润率要好得多。
So, what do we know? Well, approximately 95% of McDonald's restaurants are franchised. Now, why is that so important to note? Well, I want to jump over to the profitability to income statement sheet, and you'll see exactly why.
Take a look at McDonald's. There's a story being told here, and I've pointed this out before. Look at how EPS has grown over the last decade, despite the fact revenue dipped and then started to climb again, all while the profit ratio expanded considerably, going from below 40%, 38.5, up to now 57.4. for.
Why is this the case? Well, it's because this was the decade where they shifted to a franchised model. Now, the economics for this are extremely attractive. It makes it a very capital-like business.
Cuz for reference, in 2025, McDonald's revenue for franchise restaurants was about 16.5 billion, while the direct expenses of those was roughly 2.6 billion. The company owned restaurants generated around 9.7 billion, but the direct expenses were 8.3 billion.
So the margins are way better for franchised restaurants.
大约95%的麦当劳餐厅是特许经营的。为什么这一点如此重要？我想跳到利润表上的盈利能力部分，你就会明白原因。看看麦当劳。这里讲述了一个故事，我之前也指出过。看看过去十年每股收益是如何增长的，尽管营收先是下滑、随后又开始回升，而利润率却大幅扩张，从低于40%的38.5，上升到如今的57.4。
为什么会这样？因为这是他们转向特许经营模式的十年。这种模式的经济效益极具吸引力，使它成为一门非常资本密集型的生意。作为参考，2025年麦当劳特许经营餐厅的营收约为165亿，而这些餐厅的直接费用约为26亿。
公司自营餐厅创造了约97亿，但直接费用为83亿。所以特许经营餐厅的利润率要好得多。
Well, approximately 95% of McDonald's restaurants are franchised. Now, why is that so important to note? Well, I want to jump over to the profitability to income statement sheet, and you'll see exactly why.
Take a look at McDonald's. There's a story being told here, and I've pointed this out before. Look at how EPS has grown over the last decade, despite the fact revenue dipped and then started to climb again, all while the profit ratio expanded considerably, going from below 40%, 38.5, up to now 57.4. for.
Why is this the case? Well, it's because this was the decade where they shifted to a franchised model. Now, the economics for this are extremely attractive. It makes it a very capital-like business.
Cuz for reference, in 2025, McDonald's revenue for franchise restaurants was about 16.5 billion, while the direct expenses of those was roughly 2.6 billion. The company owned restaurants generated around 9.7 billion, but the direct expenses were 8.3 billion.
So the margins are way better for franchised restaurants.
然而，这当然不能缓解该股目前面临的所有问题。通胀已被证明是该股的一个严重威胁，因为它推高了所有销售商品的成本。这种通胀，再加上我们看到全球销售已显著放缓，这一切都使该股的吸引力大打折扣。
However, that certainly doesn't alleviate all the issues with the stock right now. Inflation has proven to be a serious threat for this stock as it increases all the cost of their goods sold.
That inflation combined with the fact as we saw global sales have slowed down significantly. All this makes the stock quite a bit less attractive.
所以，当我们谈论麦当劳目前的前瞻性回报时，预测显示每股收益复合增长率约为6.4%至14%。对于一只历史上市盈率处于24至25倍的股票来说，这绝对算不上亮眼的盈利增长，尤其是考虑到近期营收增长甚至更慢。
这就是麦当劳的问题所在。不仅仅是宏观环境，这就是麦当劳的问题所在。再加上不断攀升的通胀，这不是一个好的组合。
So when we talk about forward-looking returns right now for McDonald's, projections are showing EPS kagger of about 6.4 14%. So that's definitely not impressive earnings growth for a stock that historically sit at a PE multiple of 24 to 25, especially considering that as of late, revenue growth has been even slower.
That's the issue with McDonald's. Not just the macro environment, that's the issue with McDonald's. This combined with climbing inflation is not a good recipe.
所以，这又是一个情形：即使我们采用6%的盈利增长，且市盈率维持在当前水平，前瞻性回报也并不那么亮眼。基本上，要让这只股票带来像样的回报，我们需要看到估值倍数随时间扩张。问题是，接下来会发生什么
So again, it's another scenario where even if we apply that 6% earnings growth and the PE multiple stays right where it's at, forward-looking returns aren't that impressive. Basically, to see decent returns with this stock, we need to see a level of multiple expansion over time. The question is, what's going to happen
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。