由于「McDonald's Next」计划给加盟商带来高额资本开支负担，MCD 投资者对该计划细节反应负面，导致股价大幅下跌。
逐段跳播
麦当劳股价今天上涨，而昨天在近三年来首次投资者日之后经历了一个艰难的日子。尽管他们制定了战略计划和财务目标，但投资者似乎对他们的表态并不十分买账，尤其是在宏观经济前景以及他们不得不在加盟业务上投入巨额资金这两方面。
McDonald's shares rose today after facing a tough day yesterday following its first investor day in nearly 3 years. It seems that despite setting strategic plans and financial targets, investors were not very impressed by their statements , especially regarding the macroeconomic outlook and the huge amount of money they would have to spend on franchises.
事实上，麦当劳的表现好于其他公司，并且正在努力弥补昨天遭受的损失。是的，昨天大约下跌了6%。这是在公布“McDonald's Next”计划细节之后发生的，该计划他们在6月就已宣布，但当时细节非常少。
如今投资者已经了解了细节，正如你所说，他们并不太喜欢。我们今天看到股价小幅上涨，甚至不到1%，所以这并没有完全弥补昨天的损失。
In fact, McDonald's is doing better than others and is trying to make up for the losses it suffered yesterday. Yes, there was a loss of about 6% yesterday. This comes after the release of details of the ' McDonald's Next' plan, which they announced in June but at the time was very sparse on details.
Now that investors have learned the details, as you said, they did n't like it very much. We are seeing a slight price increase today, not even 1 percent, so it is not fully covering yesterday's losses.
我们来讨论一下他们为什么要改变战略，以及他们的新战略是什么。他们计划对餐厅进行现代化改造。他们正在寻找不同的方式来吸引GLP-1用户。这是他们战略中很重要的一部分。由于消费者受到高通胀的打击，他们的销售在很长一段时间里一直低迷。
我们看到各地人们去餐厅的次数都比以前少了。但他们正在寻找让食客回流的方法。所以现在他们正计划进行一些改造或翻新。这是他们战略中很重要的一部分。
Let's discuss why they are changing strategy and what their new strategy is. They plan to modernize the restaurants. They are looking for different ways to attract GLP-1 users.
This is a big part of their strategy. Their sales have been sluggish for a long time as consumers have been hurt by high inflation. We are seeing that people are going to restaurants less than before everywhere.
But they are looking for ways to get diners back. So now they are planning some remodeling or renovations. This is a big part of their strategy.
麦当劳每十年强制加盟商进行一次这样的改造，但这一次他们有一些新的设计。他们要把游乐场重新带回来。已经有游乐区的麦当劳正在对它们进行升级。他们正在打造开放式厨房或开放式厨房布局。
他们希望McCafe的饮品能带来类似星巴克咖啡师式的体验。消费者将能够直接看到饮品的制作过程，因为他们更加重视饮品市场。他们将其视为业务的主要驱动力。他们还将改进设备、技术和运营。
他们有一套新的人工智能驱动的操作系统，可以用西班牙语和英语接收顾客的订单。它可以处理库存和排班任务，他们表示，其功能每周将节省约50个工时。所以他们正在引入这套系统。这将需要大量的财务投入，我认为这正是计算变得有些复杂的地方。
McDonald's makes this mandatory for franchisees every decade, but this time they have some new designs. They are bringing back the playground. McDonald's that already have play places are updating them.
They are creating an open kitchen or open kitchen layout. They want McCafe's drinks to feel like a Starbucks-like barista experience. Consumers will be able to see the beverage making process directly , as they are placing more importance on the beverage market.
They see it as a major driver of business. They will also improve their equipment, technology, and operations. They have a new artificial intelligence- powered operating system that can take orders from customers in Spanish and English.
It can handle inventory and shift scheduling tasks, and its functionality will save about 50 labor hours per week, they said. So they are adding it. This will require a large financial investment, and I think this is where the calculations get a little complicated.
通常情况下，加盟商负责麦当劳加盟店的所有升级改造。所以他们希望每个人都进行这些升级。这种升级或改造的成本通常在40万至45万美元之间，但当我查看美国加盟商的平均年现金流时，目前大约为50万美元。
因此，加盟商在这里出现抵触的可能性非常高。他们计划在推进这一战略变革时为加盟商提供约50亿美元的支持。资本支出预计在2027年至2030年间为15亿至20亿美元，此后每年还将有30亿美元的经常性资本支出。他们在2025年的资本支出约为34亿美元。
Typically, franchise owners are responsible for any upgrades to McDonald's franchises. So they want everyone to make these upgrades. The cost of this upgrade or remodeling is typically $ 400,000 to $450,000, but when I look at the average annual cash flow of US franchise owners , it's currently around $500,000.
Therefore, the possibility of resistance from franchise owners is very high here. They plan to provide franchisees with about $5 billion in support as they make this strategic change.
Capital expenditures are projected to be $1.5 to $2 billion from 2027 to 2030, and an additional $3 billion in recurring capital expenditures or capex each year thereafter. They spent about $3.4 billion on capex in 2025.
另一件有趣的事是，他们正计划建立一个媒体网络。我不确定这在整个布局中处于什么位置，但他们将在数字得来速中为其他企业投放广告。他们说这可能成为一项十亿美元级的业务，并且已经开始试运营。
不过，在我看过的任何分析师报告中都没有提到这一点。
Another interesting thing is that they are planning to build a media network. I'm not sure where this fits into the equation, but they will advertise other businesses in their digital drive-thru.
They say it could become a billion-dollar business and they have started its pilot operations. However, this is not mentioned in any analyst report I have seen.
TD Coyne将麦当劳的目标价从270上调至282。这意味着从当前水平来看仍有约30美元的上涨空间。他们的评级为“持有”。他们表示，该股目前的市盈率为前瞻盈利的17倍。这是自2016年以来的最低水平，不包括疫情后时期。
这表明要实现超额收益并不需要太多条件，尽管复苏的时间表仍不明确。他们还称2027年至2030年的每股收益增长情况不明确。
TD Coyne raised its price target on McDonald's to 282 from 270. This means that there is still a possibility of an increase of about $30 from the current position. Their rating is 'Hold'.
They say the stock is currently trading at 17 times forward earnings. This is the lowest since 2016, excluding the post-Covid period. This indicates that not much is needed to achieve alpha, although the recovery timeline is still unclear.
They also called EPS growth from 2027 to 2030 unclear.
Evercore ISI将其目标价从320下调至300。不过，他们维持“跑赢大盘”评级，并且仍然认为有显著的改善空间。他们表示，将2027年至2030年的每股收益下调了3%，并将其归因于对再加盟、租金减免和同店销售的预期降低。
Evercore ISI has reduced their target from 320 to 300. However, they maintain an ' outperform' rating and still see significant room for improvement. They said they cut their EPS for 2027 to 2030 by 3% , which they attributed to lower estimates for re- franchising , rent reductions and same-store sales.
而在摩根大通今天的最新报告中，他们维持“增持”评级，但将目标价下调至260。这意味着与当前水平仅相差20美元。他们表示，麦当劳正在展示其作为全球加盟商所具备的罕见、甚至独一无二的能力，即打造有效的运营平台。
所以，卖方并没有受到太大影响，但他们似乎并不排斥这一新战略，Sam。
And in JP Morgan's latest note today, they maintained their ' overweight' rating but cut the price target to 260. That means it is only a $20 difference from the current level.
They said McDonald's is demonstrating its rare, if not unique, ability as a global franchisor to create effective operating platforms. So, the sell- side has n't been affected much, but they don't seem to be averse to this new strategy , Sam.
你会如何对麦当劳进行潜在交易？是的，谢谢你邀请我。你看，市场上通常每天都会发生各种事情，我们也会有关于高利率和人们成本上升的令人困惑的讨论。通常，当你听到这些事情时，似乎人们可能正在试图省钱并寻找便宜的方式。
你可能会想到像麦当劳这样的公司，但作为投资者，它们的前景似乎并不十分光明。尽管如此，我认为他们可能正在预测最坏的情况，并打算在低预期的基础上做得更好。考虑到该股目前的位置，它今天从底部出现了相当不错的反弹。
我认为这非常令人鼓舞。今天，买家正在回到这里。不过，鉴于当前形势，波动性比正常水平略高。股价略低于正常水平。我正在考虑通过卖出一个看跌价差来进行交易。这将为他们的财报事件给我带来明确的风险。
我正在关注10月的230-215看跌价差。目前大约是一美元，我今天早上看的时候还略高一些。有可能从中获得约一美元的权利金。这对我来说是一个非常舒适的位置，大约比该股当前价格低10美元。
所以，如果价格进一步下跌，我就必须买入股票。我愿意在230美元买入该股。否则，我将获得一美元的权利金，对于接下来的三周来说，这算是不错的收入。
How do you place a potential trade on McDonald's? Yes, thank you for inviting me. Look, usually things happen in the markets every day , and we have confusing discussions about high interest rates and rising costs for people.
Usually, when you hear these things, it seems like people are probably trying to save money and looking for cheap ways. And you might think of companies like McDonald's, but their future doesn't seem very promising as an investor.
Despite all this, I think they are probably projecting the worst-case scenario and aiming to do better going forward with low expectations. Considering the stock's current position, it's showing a pretty good bounce from the bottom today.
I think this is very encouraging. Today, buyers are returning here. However, given the current situation, the volatility is a bit higher than normal. The stock price is slightly lower than normal.
I am thinking of trading by selling a put spread. This will give me a specific risk for their income event. I'm looking at the 230-215 put spread for October. Currently it's about a dollar, it was a little higher when I looked this morning.
It is possible to get a premium of about one dollar from this. This is a very comfortable place for me, about $10 below the current price of the stock. So, if the price drops further , I have to buy the stock.
I am willing to buy the stock at $230. Otherwise, I'll get my one dollar premium, which isn't too bad of an income for the next three weeks.
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。