对于长期股息投资者而言，MCD因低市盈率和高股息率而被低估，但鉴于增长放缓，并不适合追求跑赢市场。
逐段跳播
但首先，我想从 McDonald's 说起。其股价下跌了 4.81%，过去一年累计下跌了 21%。除去昨天的盘中波动，该股目前处于 52 周低点。
But to begin with, I want to start with McDonald's. Their stock is down 4.81% and has lost 21% in the past year. Excluding yesterday's intraday fluctuations , the stock is now at a 52-week low.
而如果看 5 年，McDonald's 股价在过去 5 年下跌了 3%。那么，近期的这轮下跌是买入机会吗？我们来研究一下这个问题。
And if we look at 5 years, McDonald's stock has fallen 3% in the last 5 years. So, is this recent price drop a buying opportunity? Let's look into this matter.
McDonald's 有着悠久的派息历史。它是一只股息贵族股，连续 25 年以上持续提高股息。
McDonald's has a long history of paying dividends. They are a Dividend Aristocrat , who have been consistently increasing their dividends for over 25 years.
它过去按季度派息，后来改为按年派息。现在又恢复为按季度派息。而且自那以来一直在持续提高股息。这里可以看到，过去 10 年其股息提高了 105%。这是 7.46% 的复合年增长率。
然而，这一增速现在正在放缓。在过去 3 年，股息仅提高了 15%。对应的复合年增长率为 4.94%。
They used to pay quarterly dividends, later they became annual dividend payers. They are back to being quarterly dividend payers. And they have been continuously increasing dividends ever since.
Here you can see that they have increased their dividend by 105% in the last 10 years. This is a compound annual growth rate of 7.46%. However, this rate is now slowing down. In the last 3 years , dividends have only increased by 15%. And it's giving you a CAGR of 4.94%.
而 McDonald's 最新宣布的股息上调幅度为 3.76%。这比上一次低 5%，比再上一次低 5.99%。所以，这就是担忧所在。增长正在放缓，但该股现在比近期历史上更便宜。
And McDonald's latest dividend increase, which was just announced, was 3.76%. This is 5% lower than the previous one and 5.99% lower than the previous one. So, that's the concern.
Growth is slowing , but the stock is now cheaper than in recent history.
过去 5 年，从 McDonald's 股票上能获得的最高股息率为 3.12%。这处于第 100 百分位。这也是过去 10 年中最高的水平之一。过去 10 年它一直处于第 98 百分位，而该期间股息率的中位数为 2.35%。
所以，这是过去 10 年 McDonald's 股票最高的股息率之一。
Over the past 5 years, the highest dividend yield you could have received from McDonald's shares was 3.12%. This is the 100th percentile. And this is one of the highest in the last 10 years.
It has been in the 98th percentile over the past 10 years , where the median dividend yield during that period was 2.35%. So, this is one of the highest dividend yields on McDonald's shares in the last 10 years.
我不会说 McDonald's 的股息有任何面临风险的可能。过去 12 个月的自由现金流派息率为 67.3%。2025 年为 71.2%，可以看到过去 10 年它一直远低于 100%，过去 12 个月在 55% 至 59.7% 之间。
而且，过去 10 年派息率在 50% 至 79% 之间，一直是可持续的。这是合理的。
And I wouldn't say that McDonald's dividends are in any way being at risk. The free cash flow payout ratio for the past 12 months is 67.3%. In 2025 it was 71.2%, and you can see that it has always been well below 100% over the last 10 years , ranging from 55% to 59.7% in the last 12 months.
And again, it has been sustainable with payout ratios ranging from 50% to 79% over the past 10 years. And that's reasonable.
McDonald's 是一家成熟公司，将大部分现金流以股息形式派发。McDonald's 的股票正变得越来越便宜，股息收入在增加，这是一个很好的投资机会。但问题在这里。McDonald's 的增长正在放缓。
McDonald's is a mature company that pays out the majority of their cash flow as dividends. McDonald's shares are getting cheaper , dividend income is increasing, which is a good opportunity for investment.
But here's the problem. Growth at McDonald's is slowing.
从长期看，你会发现它在市场中处于有利地位。其每股收益有所增长。过去 10 年，每股收益增长了 123%。这是 8.58% 的复合年增长率。但同样，过去 3 年每股收益仅增长了 8.3%。
这是 2.95% 的复合年增长率，慢于股息增长。
You will see in the long run that they are in a good position in the market. Their earnings per share have increased. And in the last 10 years, earnings per share have increased by 123%.
This is a compound annual growth rate of 8.58%. But again, earnings per share have only grown by 8.3% in the last 3 years. This is a 2.95% CAGR, which is slower than dividend growth.
而目前，分析师预计未来几年每股收益将实现个位数增长。尽管这略好于近期表现。同样，正如从股息率角度看现在是投资的好时机，从 McDonald's 股票的市盈率角度看现在也是好时机。
这里我们看的是过去 12 个月的滚动市盈率。为 19.36。这是过去 5 年最低的。这也是过去 10 年最低的。过去 10 年的中位数为 25.84。即使从历史角度看，回溯到大金融危机时期，这也是投资 McDonald's 股票的最佳时机之一。其自 2007 年以来的中位数为 20.83。
And currently, analysts are projecting single-digit growth in earnings per share in the coming years. Although this is slightly better than recent performance. Similarly, just as it is a good time to invest based on dividend yield, it is also a good time in terms of the PE ratio of McDonald's shares.
Here we are looking at the trailing PE ratio for the last 12 months. It is 19.36. This is the lowest in the last 5 years. And this is the lowest in the last 10 years. Its median value over the last 10 years was 25.84.
Even in all-time perspective , looking back to the Great Financial Crisis , this is one of the best times to invest in McDonald's shares. Its median value since 2007 is 20.83.
所以，现在投资 McDonald's 是否正确，关键在于增长是否会重新加快，因为我们知道这项业务很出色。我们知道它处于主导地位。它将在未来数十年持续存在。它是一个可靠的现金提供者。
我们知道特许经营商业模式有许多优势。McDonald's 品牌在全球极为强大。
So, the key to whether it's right to invest in McDonald's now is whether growth will pick up again, because we know the business is great. We know it is in a dominant position.
It will last for many decades to come. It is a reliable cash provider. We know that the franchise business model has many advantages. McDonald's brand is extremely strong around the world.
该公司过去 12 个月产生了 77.6 亿美元的自由现金流，但过去 3 年仅增长了 7%。McDonald's 无法实现应有的增长。不过，它在经营现金流方面表现好得多，去年增长了 21%，达到 113.5 亿美元。
The company generated $7.76 billion in free cash flow in the last 12 months , but it has grown by just 7% over the last 3 years. McDonald's is not able to achieve proper growth.
However, it has done much better in terms of operating cash flow , which increased 21% last year to $11.35 billion.
但归根结底，由于增长放缓，你现在能以折价买入 McDonald's 股票。如果你是长期投资者，想要可靠的股息收入，并希望投资一家你知道会持续数十年的企业，那么 McDonald's 股票现在看起来很便宜。
But the bottom line is, you're getting McDonald's shares at a discount now because growth is slowing. If you're a long-term investor , want reliable dividend income, and want to invest in a business that you know will last for decades, McDonald's shares look cheap right now.
正如我之前提到的，过去 5 年调整后每股收益和滚动 12 个月市盈率的中位数为 25.67。在此基础上，这是相对于中位数倍数最大的折价。而如果你假设长期内它会回到该公允价值，其股价将达到 322 美元，比现在高 35%。
这将是你的安全边际，它会带来每股收益增长和股息再投资之外的额外收益。
As I mentioned earlier, the median adjusted earnings per share and trailing 12-month PE ratio over the last 5 years was 25.67. On that basis, this is the largest discount compared to the median multiple.
And if you assume that it will return to that fair value in the long run , its share price will stand at $322, which is 35% more than it is now. This will be your safety margin, which will provide additional benefits of earnings per share growth and dividend reinvestment.
这是公司每股收益增长和股息再投资之外的额外收益。过去十年 McDonald's 的估值倍数相当稳定，过去 10 年平均为 25.45。所以，即使放在那个时期的背景下，它仍然是一个巨大的折价。
然而，如果回溯到 2007 年，按滚动 12 个月计算，调整后每股收益的中位数倍数为 22。所以，在此基础上它看起来并没有那么便宜。在大萧条期间它曾低至 13.86。
This is an additional payment beyond the company's earnings per share increase and dividend reinvestment. McDonald's share multiple has been quite consistent over the past decade , averaging 25.45 over the past 10 years.
So, even in the context of that time, it was still a huge discount. However, if we look back to 2007, the median multiple adjusted earnings per share is 22 as a trailing 12-month figure.
So, on that basis it doesn't seem that cheap. It dropped as low as 13.86 during the Great Depression.
不过，麦当劳的股票相对于盈利而言，自2015年以来从未这么便宜过。说实话，我认为这就是麦当劳股票在过去5年里表现不佳的原因。它当时以溢价交易，而增长却在放缓。它不配享有那样的溢价。
你为麦当劳股票支付了高昂的价格。现在它的交易价格要合理得多。
However, McDonald's stock has not been this cheap relative to earnings since 2015. And honestly, I think that's why McDonald's stock hasn't done very well in the last 5 years. It was trading at a premium and growth was slowing.
It did n't deserve that premium. You were paying a high price for McDonald's stock. Now it is being traded at a much more fair price.
股息也是如此。自2007年以来，平均前瞻性股息率为2.6%。目前为3.12%，看起来是投资麦当劳股票的好时机。
The same applies to dividends. The average forward-looking dividend yield since 2007 has been 2.6%. It is currently 3.12% and it seems like a good time to invest in McDonald's stock.
但如果你想在长期内跑赢市场，我认为麦当劳股票不是合适的工具。在过去10年里，包括股息再投资在内的总回报为每年10.04%。这是复合年增长率。自1985年以来表现甚至更好，复合年增长率为13.25%，其中很大一部分来自股息再投资。
But if you're trying to outperform the market over the long term, I don't think McDonald's stock is the right vehicle for that. Over the past 10 years, the total return, including dividend reinvestment, was 10.04% annually.
This is the compound annual growth rate. It has been even better since 1985, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.25%, a large portion of which came from dividend reinvestment.
我认为麦当劳股票现在更适合那些已退休的股息投资者，他们希望获得比标普500略高的收益率、可靠的季度股息且预计会增长，但我不确定它的总回报未来能否跑赢标普500。
I think McDonald's stock is more suitable for retired dividend investors now who want a slightly higher yield than the S&P 500, a reliable quarterly dividend that is expected to grow , but I'm not sure if its total return can beat the S&P 500 in the future.
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Dividend Data 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。