MCD 是优质的长期持有标的，但短期面临通胀带来的利润率压力；当前估值指标尚不明确，因此不建议立即买入。
逐段跳播
这个箭头是什么？麦当劳。麦当劳。天哪，没错。如你所知，这不是我们频道经常谈论的股票，但你知道我们今天为什么谈论它吗？该股自3月以来已暴跌超过30%。那么，这段时间有多长？大约6个月？
该股已下跌超过30%。对于麦当劳这样的股票来说，这是一次巨大的崩盘。
What is this arrow? McDonald's. McDonald's. Oh my God, yes. As you know, this is n't a stock we talk about much on the channel, but do you know why we're talking about it today?
The stock has plummeted by more than 30% since March. So, how long is that period? About 6 months? The stock has fallen by more than 30%. This is a huge crash for a stock like McDonald's.
记住，如你所知，股市自3月以来表现一直相当不错。纳斯达克指数相比3月的水平可能已大幅上涨。市场表现良好，而麦当劳却被彻底击败、碾压，不是吗？
And remember, the stock market has been , as you know, doing well enough since March. The Nasdaq index may have risen significantly compared to where it was in March. The market was good, yet McDonald's was completely defeated and crushed, wasn't it?
现在看看麦当劳过去5年的表现。听好了。该股在过去五年里下跌了4%。对于一家最传奇的公司之一，它给你的却是过去五年的负回报，不是吗？
Now, look at McDonald's performance over the past 5 years. Listen to this. The stock has fallen by 4% over the past five years . It's offering you a negative return over the past five years for one of the most legendary companies, isn't it ?
麦当劳不是我通常会研究、甚至远远关注的股票，但如果它在几个月内下跌30%，我就会去看看，不是吗？于是，我摆弄着人工智能，问它麦当劳发生了什么。这只股票为什么下跌，不是吗？它谈到低收入人群不再频繁光顾快餐店。
美国及全球行业的客流趋势已变得持平或负增长。嗯，它谈到他们最近未能实现每股收益。收入最近略有下降，不是吗？全球和本土的同店销售额萎缩了1%，打破了多年的增长。很明显，它谈到了我们之前讨论过的关于通胀、成本以及所有那些事情，那些都是非常现实的问题。
嗯，他们开了这个投资者日，我得完整看看发生了什么，但它谈到了在投资者日设定的长期目标，并未达到不耐烦的投资者的预期。中东的地缘政治逆风。我的意思是，看起来，你知道，对于麦当劳这样一只股票、这样一家高质量的公司，在几个月内下跌30%，背后必然有多种因素。
原因不可能只有一个。肯定是一堆事情同时出了问题，对吧？
Now, McDonald's is n't a stock I usually look into or even pay attention to from afar, but if it drops 30% in a few months, I'll check it out, won't I ? And so, I was messing around with the artificial intelligence and asking it what was happening with McDonald's.
Why is this stock falling, isn't it? He talks about low-income people declining to visit fast food restaurants frequently. Traffic trends in the industry in the United States and globally have become flat or negative.
Um, he's talking about their recent failure to achieve earnings per share. Revenues have declined slightly recently, haven't they? Sales at similar stores globally and locally shrank by 1%, breaking years of growth.
It was clear that he talked about what we had discussed earlier regarding inflation, costs, and all those things, and those were very real issues. Um, they had this Investor Day which I'll have to look at in full to see what happened , but he talked about long-term goals that were set on Investor Day and did not meet the expectations of impatient investors.
Geopolitical headwinds in the Middle East. I mean, it seems, you know, for a stock like McDonald's, a company of this quality, to drop 30% in a few months, there must be multiple factors behind it.
The reason cannot be just one thing. It must be a bunch of things that went wrong all at once, right?
嗯，他们开了这个投资者日，我得完整看看发生了什么，但它谈到了在投资者日设定的长期目标，并未达到不耐烦的投资者的预期。中东的地缘政治逆风。我的意思是，看起来，你知道，对于麦当劳这样一只股票、这样一家高质量的公司，在几个月内下跌30%，背后必然有多种因素。
原因不可能只有一个。肯定是一堆事情同时出了问题，对吧？
Um, they had this Investor Day which I'll have to look at in full to see what happened, but he talked about long-term goals that were set on Investor Day and did not meet the expectations of impatient investors.
Geopolitical headwinds in the Middle East. I mean, it seems, you know, for a stock like McDonald's, a company of this quality, to drop 30% in a few months, there must be multiple factors behind it.
The reason cannot be just one thing. It must be a bunch of things that went wrong all at once, right?
我一直在私人群里查看，因为我总是发布收益数据。我一直在评估收益数据，不是吗？当我输入麦当劳的名字时，我意识到我还没有评估它最近的利润表。我有4个月前的报表，我给了他们B+评级。
我有7个月前的报表，我给了他们B评级。所以我说：“天哪，我需要评估麦当劳最近的利润表，看看这里发生了什么，因为我还没评估过。”这就是我发现的。公司发现其加盟餐厅收入增长了4%。
公司自营餐厅销售额增长了3%。这些数字相当温和。其他收入增长了6%，因此公司总收入增长了4%。我的意思是，你通常希望像麦当劳这样的公司实现5%到7%区间的更大增长。4%这个数字非常温和，不是吗？
关于运营成本和费用，加盟餐厅的占用及费用增长了4%，公司自营餐厅增长了3%，这些百分比几乎与收入增长相同，对吧？他们其他餐厅的支出增长了9%。这有点高，不是吗？他们受到了公司资产折旧和摊销的显著影响，不是吗？
因此，营业收入增长了3%，这明显低于4%的收入增长。所以，这不是世界末日，但你知道，你希望看到营业收入上升。如果麦当劳收入增长4%，你真的很希望看到营业收入增长5%、6%或7%，差不多这样，不是吗？
净利润增长了5%，每股收益增长了6%。麦当劳的评级是B。这不是最差的，但我认为，看着这些柴油价格，人们对这里实际发生的情况有很多担忧。所有这些东西都需要运输。成本会影响麦当劳。
很可能有人担心，未来几个月消费者会因通胀而承受更大压力，不是吗？这意味着，如果他们去麦当劳，他们很可能会从菜单上选择更便宜的商品，这可能导致麦当劳利润率下降。与此同时，麦当劳面临无法真正转嫁给消费者的通胀成本，这意味着未来六到十二个月利润率下降、每股收益下降，收入及同店销售额可能下滑。
这使得麦当劳短期内处境非常艰难，不是吗？但是，对于麦当劳这样一家传奇公司，你应该记住，你应该把它视为一项长期资产。这是一项长期资产。所以，我在这里看麦当劳，在1001xstocks.com上，其远期市盈率为18.5，对吧？
任何时候你买到远期市盈率低于20的麦当劳，那通常都是买入机会。如果你能让麦当劳的这个倍数低于20，它是一家高质量的公司，基本上能抵御衰退，但并非真正能抵御通胀。这就是麦当劳的问题所在，不是吗？
我不确定这个远期倍数是否可信。因为如果所有成本都变得更高，比如由于运输成本导致生菜成本上升，牛肉、面包等等。如果他们无法将其转嫁给消费者，消费者可能会选择麦Double而不是巨无霸，选择更便宜的替代品，而麦当劳可能被迫提供更多促销。
这可能意味着麦当劳短期内利润率下降，对吧？因此，我不确定我们能否相信当前18.5的远期市盈率。有些时候，我通常会对一家公司说：“哦，那个倍数可能低于所写的数字。”然而，在这种情况下，实际倍数可能更高。
这就是麦当劳这里的大风险，不是吗？至少短期内，对吧？现在，麦当劳当然是一家伟大的公司。股息率超过3%，所以很有吸引力。因此，这是一只我肯定会做更多研究的股票。但我没有立场说：“我明天就应该买入麦当劳股票。”
但是，因为这个市场上有这么多机会，不是吗？它们只是众多机会中的一个。但它们绝对引起了我的注意，因为这是一个伟大的品牌。它们在这里，已经存在了几十年。未来几十年它们还会在这里，不是吗？人们仍然在麦当劳吃饭，这就是现实，不是吗？
Well, I was looking in the private group because I always post income data. I evaluate income data all the time, don't I? When I typed in McDonald's name, I realized I hadn't evaluated its most recent income statement.
I have the statement from 4 months ago, and I gave them a B+ rating. I have the statement from 7 months ago, and I gave them a B rating. So I said, "Oh my god, I need to evaluate McDonald's most recent income statement to see what's going on here because I haven't evaluated it."
This is what I found. A company found that its franchise restaurant revenues increased by 4%. Sales at the company's restaurants rose by 3%. The figures are rather modest. Other revenues increased by 6%, so the company's total revenues increased by 4%.
I mean, you would normally want to see a company like McDonald's achieve greater growth in the 5 to 7% range. A 4% figure is very modest, isn't it? Regarding operating costs and expenses, occupancy and expenses of franchise restaurants increased by 4%, and company-owned restaurants by 3%, which are almost the same percentages as the increase in revenues, right?
They recorded a 9% increase in spending on other restaurants. That was a bit high, wasn't it? They have faced a significant impact from the depreciation and amortization of the company's assets, haven't they?
Therefore, operating income increased by 3%, which is clearly a lower figure than the 4% increase in revenue. So, it's not the end of the world, but you know, you want to see operating income rise.
If McDonald's revenue is up 4%, you'd really like to see operating income up 5, 6 or 7%, something like that, wouldn't you? Net income rose by 5%, and earnings per share rose by 6%.
It was a B rating for McDonald's. It's not the worst, but I think there's a lot of concern about what's actually going on here, looking at these diesel prices. All these things need to be moved.
The costs will affect McDonald's. There is likely concern that consumers will come under greater pressure due to inflation in the next few months, isn't there? This means that if they go to McDonald's, they are likely to choose less expensive items from the menu, which may result in lower profit margins for McDonald's.
At the same time, McDonald's faces inflationary costs that it cannot really pass on to the consumer, which means lower profit margins for the next six to twelve months, lower earnings per share, and possibly a decline in revenue and comparable store sales.
This makes it a very tough short-term period for McDonald's, doesn't it? But, with regard to a company like McDonald's, which is a legendary company, you should remember that you should view it as a long-term asset.
This is a long-term asset. So, I'm looking at McDonald's here, with a future price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on 1001xstocks.com, right? Anytime you get a McDonald's with a future price-to-earnings ratio of less than 20, that's usually a buying opportunity.
If you can get this multiplier under 20 for McDonald's, it's a high-quality company that is essentially recession-proof, but not really inflation-proof. That's the problem with McDonald's, isn't it?
I am not sure that this future multiplier can be trusted. Because if all costs become higher, such as the increased cost of lettuce due to transportation costs, beef, bread, etc. If they are unable to pass that on to the consumer, consumers may choose a McDouble instead of a Big Mac, opting for cheaper alternatives, and McDonald's may be forced to offer more promotions.
That could mean lower profit margins for McDonald's in the short term, right? Therefore, I am not sure whether we can trust the current forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5.
There are periods of time when I usually say about a company, "Oh, that multiplier is probably less than what's written." However, in this case, the actual multiplier may be higher.
This is the big risk here for McDonald's, isn't it? At least in the short term, right? Now, McDonald's is of course a great company. The dividend yield is over 3%, so it is attractive.
Therefore, this is a stock that I will definitely do more research on. But I am not in a position to say, "I should buy McDonald's shares tomorrow." But, because there are so many opportunities in this market, isn't there?
They are just one opportunity out of many. But they definitely caught my attention because it's a great brand. They are here, they have been here for decades. They will be here for decades to come, won't they?
People still eat at McDonald's, that's the reality, isn't it?
因为，天哪，如果麦当劳受到影响，该死的，如果你是市场上的另一个参与者，你必然会受到严重影响，不是吗？
Because, my God, if McDonald's is affected, damn it, if you're another player in the market, you're bound to be severely affected, aren't you?
一些最无聊的股票就像麦当劳，对吧？也许还有其他一些不是最令人兴奋的选择，但即使我们进入衰退环境，它们也会没事，不是吗？
Some of the most boring stocks are like McDonald's, right? And perhaps some others that are not the most exciting options, but they will be fine even if we enter a recessionary environment, won't they?
因为如果麦当劳股价今天是125，是的，我可能会抢着买入所有能买到的麦当劳股票，不是吗？按当前价格，我会说：“好吧，这肯定被盯上了，但我不知道现在是不是买入一些的合适时机。”如果麦当劳一直像今天这样是400美元，我才不在乎。我不在乎它是不是麦当劳。
Because if McDonald's stock price were 125 today, yes, I would probably rush to buy every available McDonald's stock, wouldn't I? At the current price, I'm like, "Okay, that's definitely eyed, but I don't know if it's the right time to buy some."
If McDonald's were always $400 like it is today, I wouldn't care. I don't care if it's McDonald's.
观察点
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。