MDT 因估值低于行业中位数、且医疗机器人与心脏解决方案基本面持续改善,而成为高确信度买入标的。
逐段跳播
今天我们要谈的,是我一直以来最喜欢的派息股之一。我认为它不仅是最适合长期持有数十年、带来持续可靠收入的标的之一,而且恰好目前的估值也便宜得离谱。这只股票当然就是Medtronic,股票代码MDT。
today well, we are going to be talking about really one of my all-time favorite dividend paying stocks. One that I feel is um not only one of the greatest kind of long-term holds for decades, I would say of consistent and reliable income, but they also just happen to be trading at an absolute steal of a valuation, too.
And that is, of course, Medtronic, ticker symbol MDT.
我知道我在这个频道上经常提到这只股票,但这是有充分理由的。而且我认为,现在正是加仓这一持仓的最佳时机之一,赶在价格不可避免的复苏之前。而这一复苏其实已经初现雏形,尤其是在基础业务层面,今天我会跟大家谈谈这一点。
Who I know I bring this one up a lot on this channel, but it is for very good reason. And right now, I feel is really one of the best times to be adding to this position, too, before an inevitable recovery in price.
That we're actually already seeing take shape, especially in the underlying business, which I'm going to talk to you about today.
对于不了解的人来说,Medtronic实际上是全球最大的医疗器械公司。它生产最关键的产品和工具、基础设施,甚至医院每天都依赖的软件和服务,从心脏起搏器和心血管植入物,到先进的外科手术机器人。
这些都是医疗健康行业绝对不可或缺的东西,长期来看需求应该会持续上升。
Now, for those that don't know, Medtronic is actually the largest medical device company on the planet, really. A producing the most critical supplies and tools, uh infrastructure, and even software and services that hospitals rely on every single day.
With everything from pacemakers and cardiovascular implants to even advanced surgical robotics. These are absolute necessities for the healthcare sector that should always see demand rising long-term.
事实上,我认为唯一可能给这只股票带来风险的地方,严格来说,就是疫情过后笼罩整个行业的动荡宏观环境,这导致该股今天的交易价格与整整十年前处于同一水平,同时较顶部已下跌超过其全部价值的三分之一。
In fact, the only um place where I could see any kind of risk really entering into this stock is really strictly, I would say, coming from just kind of the turbulent macro conditions that are surrounding the sector coming off the pandemic, which is causing the stock to trade at even the same level today as it did an entire decade ago.
While also being down over a third of its entire value from the top.
那么,Medtronic究竟出了什么问题?当医院在世界停摆之际被迫突然取消利润丰厚的择期手术时,这实际上导致许多医院破产。即便世界最终重新开放,Medtronic也遭遇了各种供应链瓶颈。
有关税、通胀成本上升、高利率。所有这些都绝对会影响到像这样全球最大的医疗器械公司。而且Medtronic自身也遇到了一些公司特有的问题,比如一些质量控制问题,这些正如我所说,也更多是公司自身的问题。
So, what exactly went wrong here for Medtronic? Well, you know, when hospitals were forced to abruptly cancel their highly profitable elective procedures and surgeries as the world shut down, well, it caused many of those hospitals to actually go bankrupt.
And even when the world finally reopened, Medtronic got slammed with all sorts of, you know, supply chain bottlenecks. There was tariffs, you know, rising inflation costs, high interest rates.
You know, all things that would absolutely affect the world's largest, uh, you know, global medical device company like this. And even Medtronic themselves dealt with some company-specific issues, like some quality control issues that, you know, were, um, yeah, just like I said, a little a little more company-specific, too.
更糟的是,这是他们所有挑战中最近的一个,就是近来华尔街一直对GLP-1减肥药的巨大崛起感到恐慌。有些人把这视为一个巨大的机会,视为可以从中受益的股票。但对于可能受影响的股票来说,其实很多人甚至没有意识到,华尔街认为有些公司实际上可能会因GLP-1减肥药的崛起而受到负面影响。
而真正的担忧是,如果人群突然开始减重,那么对减肥手术、甚至某些情况下对心血管植入物的需求可能会大幅减少。
And to make matters worse, uh, this being really, um, I would say the most recent of of all their kind of challenges, is that lately, uh, Wall Street has been panicking over the giant rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
Uh, some people see this as as a great opportunity and and stocks that can benefit from it. But for the stocks that can be There's actually, you know, a lot of people don't even kind of realize this, but Wall Street feels that there are companies that can actually be negatively impacted by the rising GLP, um, GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
And the fear really is that if the poppy if populations, you know, suddenly start losing weight, then there could be a giant reduction in the need for weight loss surgeries or even in some cases like cardiovascular implants.
让事情更加复杂的是,Medtronic最近还进行了一次重大重组,将其糖尿病业务分拆成一家完全独立的公司。现在它叫MiniMed,这会暂时影响他们的近期盈利和同比数据。
And to complicate things even further than that, Medtronic also recently executed a major restructuring by spinning off its diabetes unit into a completely separate company, too.
Now it's called uh, MiniMed, which is a temporarily It's going to be affecting their near-term earnings and year-over-year comparisons.
但各位,这正是我在这类标的上逢低买入的原因,因为我认为更深层的基本面未来会完全恢复。事实上,转机已经很好地成形,我们能看到这一点。
But guys, this right here is why I buy the dip on these type of plays because the deeper fundamentals are I would say, in my opinion, going to be coming right back going forward.
In fact, the turnaround and already taking shape nicely and we can see that.
比如上个季度,他们实现了近100亿美元的销售额,同比增长约14%,剔除疫情造成的异常因素后,这是他们近八年来最强劲的表现。他们的利润也超出了预期,甚至还上调了全年指引。
Last quarter, for example, they did close to 10 billion in sales, which was up about 14% year-over-year, marking their strongest performance in nearly eight years when you strip out the weird pandemic anomalies.
Uh they also beat expectations on the bottom line, too, and even raised their full-year guidance, as well.
正如我所说,在基本面内部,他们的各个基础业务板块表现比以往任何时候都好。例如,他们的心脏消融解决方案业务同比全球增长88%,大幅爆发。他们的Hugo机器人系统最近还获得了FDA对泌尿外科手术的许可。
他们正在积极将全新的人工智能功能整合进他们全线软件套件中,我认为这只会进一步强化他们的竞争护城河,甚至还与Nvidia在多个新平台和服务上展开合作。
Like I said, under the hood, within the fundamentals, their underlying segments are performing better than ever. Uh for example, their cardiac ablation solutions business exploded with 88% global growth year-over-year.
Their Hugo uh robotic systems um it actually earned recently FDA clearance for urologic procedures, too. And they're they're actively integrating brand-new AI features into their software suite across the board, which I feel will will only strengthen their competitive moat even further, even partnering with Nvidia on various new platforms and services, too.
但最令人兴奋的是,我们可以看看他们在机器人领域扩张得多么激进,力图抓住我认为未来外科手术中最大的增长驱动力的一大块。我提到的那套Hugo系统刚刚获得FDA对泌尿外科的许可,而Medtronic还在申请大量其他许可,一旦这些许可陆续获批,我认为投资者将不得不予以关注。
比如最近,这包括针对普通外科和妇科手术的FDA申请,这将打开一些手术量极大、利润极高的新市场。
Uh but most exciting of all, you know, we can really just look at how aggressively they are expanding into that robotics footprint to really try to capture what what I feel is a a big chunk of what I think will likely be the biggest growth driver in medical surgeries going forward.
Uh that Hugo system that I mentioned, um that just got the FDA clearance for urology, well, Medtronic is also filing for tons of other clearances, too, that, once they start rolling in, I think investors will have to take notice.
And most recently, for example, this includes FDA filings for both general and gynecologic uh surgeries, which would open the door to some very high-volume, highly profitable new markets.
他们还在把经过验证的原有工具,比如已在全球超过3500万例手术中使用过的LigaSure血管闭合技术,原生整合进Hugo机器人的机械臂,也就是机器人系统本身的机械臂中。
Uh they're also taking their proven legacy tools, like their LigaSure vessel sealing technologies that have already been used in over 35 million procedures worldwide, and they're natively integrating them directly into the Hugo robotic arms, the arms of the actual like robot system.
我认为这正是一个很好的例子,说明能够把所有这些不同的产品、服务和不同部分整合进整个机器人生态系统,将意味着医院不只是购买一台机器人。当你想到Medtronic在医疗机器人领域的全部未来潜力时,它不只是卖一台机器人,而是让这些医院不得不采用Medtronic的一整套手术生态系统,这套系统极其昂贵、高度专业化。
转换成本会非常高,学习曲线也会非常高。你不会想把它拆掉,转而采用其他未经证实、没有Medtronic这样公司过往业绩记录的东西。所以我认为这确实为他们提供了巨大的护城河。
And that right there, like I think it's just a great example of how being able to integrate all these different products and services and different parts to this entire like ecosystem robotic kind of ecosystem is what I feel is going to is going to translate into hospitals not just buying, you know, a single robot.
Like when you think of Medtronic's all their future potential in medical robotics, it's not just in selling like one single robot. It's in these hospitals having to really adopt an entire surgical ecosystem from Medtronic that is super expensive, that is highly highly specialized.
And the switching costs are going to be very high. The learning curve is going to be very high. You're just not going to want to rip that out and go with something else that is not proven and that doesn't have the the track record of a company like Medtronic.
So I I just think that that's really providing this big moat for them.
而且,所有这些都融入了实时人工智能。比如最近,Medtronic推出了Touch Surgery Aid,这是首个获得FDA许可、在这些机器人手术过程中实时运行的人工智能算法,本质上就像给外科医生配备的盲区监测。
它能在手术过程中即时追踪器械并提供实时视觉辅助。
And again, all of this is being infused with real-time artificial intelligence. And just recently, for example, Medtronic launched Touch Surgery Aid, which is the very first FDA-cleared AI algorithm that runs live during these robotic procedures, essentially acting like a blind spot monitor for surgeons.
I can instantly track instruments and provide real-time visual assistance as they operate.
因此,随着整个医疗领域转向数字化、人工智能辅助的手术,我认为未来非常可能如此,我确实认为Medtronic在将自己定位在绝对前沿方面比大多数公司做得好得多。同时还在构建这个巨大的经济护城河,将在未来数十年把医院锁定在他们高利润的生态系统中。
而且我认为,一旦你被Medtronic锁定,你就不太可能转投别处,你很可能继续把他们作为供应商,并且随着时间推移只会越来越依赖他们。
And so as the entire medical field shifts towards, you know, digital AI-assisted surgery, which I I think is very much going to be the case going into the future, well, I just really think that Medtronic is positioning themselves much better than most to be at the absolute forefront of that transformation.
While also building this huge economic moat that will keep hospitals locked into their high-margin ecosystem for decades to come. And again, I just think like you're just not going to be able to switch away from that.
Once you're locked in with Medtronic, you're very likely just going to keep them on as a customer and and and you're just going to continue to rely on them more and more over time.
所以,这就是为什么,当你把这一切都拉远来看,当你把所有的业务、所有的产品、所有的服务、他们正在推出的一切、他们一直在做的一切、他们那庞大的历史业绩都拉远来看,当你拉远视角去看这家公司的财务数据时,分析师预计他们将创造的销售额和利润,会比疫情发生之前所达到的水平多出数十亿美元。
当你看实际的股价时,它今天实际上还处在更低的水平,估值也比行业中位数便宜超过 20%。而且我实际上认为,如果不是因为分拆带来的一些艰难同比基数以及其他一些被计入其中的因素,这个估值本来会便宜得多。
但在我看来,它实际上比那还要低得多,不过无论如何,当你谈论的是一家在各自领域占据最大市场份额的公司时,比行业中位数便宜 20% 都是一件大事。
And so it's why, you know, when you kind of zoom out of all of this, when you zoom out of all the business, all the products, all the services, everything that they're launching, everything that they've been doing, the the giant track record that they have, when you zoom out and you look at the company's financials, well, analysts are projecting them to generate more sales and profits by billions of dollars more than they ever did before the pandemic ever even happened.
You know, when you look at the actual stock price, it's actually sitting lower today with a valuation that is over 20% cheaper than the sector median, too. And I I actually think that valuation would be much cheaper if it didn't have some some tough comps from the spin-off and and and other things that are being factored into it.
But it's actually, in my opinion, it's actually much lower than that, but either way, 20% cheaper than the sector median is a huge deal when you're talking about the company that is holding the most market share in their respective field.
而当你看股息时,它现在已经连续增长了近五十年,这意味着 Medtronic 正处于即将跻身股息之王(dividend king)地位的门槛上。他们现在基本上已经是股息之王了。而且由于股价受到严重压制,其股息率也已经上升到他们整个历史上最高的水平之一。
And when you look at the dividend, well, that's now been grown for nearly five decades in a row, meaning that Medtronic is right on the cusp of breaking dividend king status. They're essentially a dividend king now.
And that yield has has been risen also to one of its highest levels ever in their entire history because again of the heavy suppression of that stock price.
所以对我来说,这一切都意味着这只股票是一个极其强烈的买入机会。是的,目前许多行业的宏观环境确实非常糟糕,顺便说一句,不只是医疗保健行业,但在我看来,对于这类对其各自行业而言绝对不可或缺的股票来说,长期前景依然和以往一样光明。
尤其是随着我们人口的老龄化,他们将比以往任何时候都更需要更多的护理。我的意思是,就看看婴儿潮一代的人口,他们中有多少人将进入退休年龄,对医疗保健服务的需求,所有这类东西都只会随着时间的推移不断上升、再上升。
So for me, all of that just translates to a screaming buy on this stock here. Now yes, the macro conditions absolutely suck right now for many sectors, by the way, not just health care, but in my opinion, the long-term picture is just as bright as ever for these type of stocks that are absolute necessities to their respective industries.
And especially with, you know, our aging populations that going to need greater care more than ever before. I mean, just look at like the baby boomer population, how many of them will be in in of retirement age, demand for health care services, all that type of stuff is just going to continue to rise and rise over time.
所以,如果那笔股息——说到股息,整个视频其实都是围绕那笔股息来组织的。如果那笔股息在过去五十年里,经历了所有的全球冲突、战争和经济衰退、大衰退、疫情,都没有被削减过,对吧?一路上有那么多障碍、巨大的减速带,还有一些很多人会认为是千载难逢的事件。
如果所有这些灾难性的事情都不足以迫使他们削减那笔股息,如果他们不仅继续支付股息,而且在这一切之中每一年都实际增长了股息,那么我绝对没有任何理由相信它在未来会被削减。而且我实际上认为,对 Medtronic 所有产品和服务的需求只会上升,不会下降。
And so, you know, if if if that dividend I would you know, speaking about the dividend, this whole video is really structured around that dividend. If that dividend has not been cut for the past five decades throughout all the global conflicts and wars and economic recessions, the Great Recession, um the the the pandemic, right?
Like so many hurdles, gigantic speed bumps along the way, something some events that, you know, many people would consider like once-in-a-lifetime type of events. If all those catastrophic things weren't enough to force them to cut that dividend, if they continue to not only pay the dividend, but they actually grew their dividend every single year through all of that, then I have absolutely zero reason to to believe that it's ever going to get cut in the future, either.
When again, I actually think that demand for all of that Medtronic products and services is only going to go up, not down.
所以对我来说,这很可能将永远是我未来在整个市场中信念最高的股息投资标的之一。你同意我对 Medtronic 的评估吗?你自己持有 Medtronic 的股票吗?
So, for me, this is um really it's probably always going to be one of my highest conviction dividend plays in the entire market for the future. Do you agree with my assessment on Medtronic? Um do you own Medtronic stock yourself?
这个频道对 $MDT 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。