MELI 被低估;在拉美电商和金融科技领域市场份额的强劲增长,支撑未来十年基本面年增长约 20% 的判断。
逐段跳播
好,现在我们继续,谈谈第三只有大量更新出来的股票,这只就是 Marcato Libre。Marcotta Libre 的股价最近见顶超过每股 2,000 美元,并且一直在这个区间附近徘徊,我认为这很值得高兴,而且早就该如此,我仍然相信 Marcato Libre 在市场上被极度低估,正如我之前所说,我认为它仍然是目前整个市场上提供最大价值的股票之一。
All right, now let's move on and talk about the third stock that has had a lot of updates coming out and this one is Marcato Libre. Marcotta Libre stock recently peaked over $2,000 per share and it has been hovering around this range now which I think is great to see and more than overdue and I still believe that Marcato Libre is extremely undervalued in the market and as I have said previously I think that it is still one of the stocks offering the most value across the entire market right now as well.
而由于 Marcato Libre 是拉丁美洲电子商务市场上遥遥领先的第一大玩家,这到 2030 年也应该会显著利好 Marcato Libre。
And with Marcato Libre being the number one player in the e-commerce market across Latin America by far, this should benefit Marcato Libre significantly out to 2030 as well.
而在这里你可以看到,Marcado Libre 在 2026 年拥有 53% 的市场份额,并且从 2021 年的 49.4% 增长而来。
And here you can see that Marcado Libre has 53% market share in 2026 and has grown from 49.4% in 2021.
这意味着 Marcato Libre 正在整个拉丁美洲赢得数字广告支出的市场份额,现在已拥有全部数字广告支出的一半以上。这太离谱了。所以随着这个市场继续增长,Marcato Libre 应该会极大地受益。
This means that Marcato Libre is gaining digital advertising spend market share across Latin America and now has more than half of the total digital advertising spend. That is ridiculous. So as this market continues to grow, Marcato Libre should benefit tremendously.
而在这里我们可以看到,Marcato Libre 和 Newbank 正在显著提高它们的市场份额。仅在过去 3 年里,Marcato Libre 就从 0% 的市场份额,增长到约 30% 的人表示他们以某种形式与一家数字银行公司有业务关系。
And here we can see that Marcato Libre and Newbank are increasing their market shares significantly. In the past 3 years alone, Marcato Libre went from having 0% market share to about 30% of people saying they have a relationship with a company in some form in digital banking.
所以 Marcato Libre 和 Newbank 简直是在吞噬整个墨西哥数字银行的市场份额。而我相信,这对两家公司来说都是一个巨大的尚未开发的市场和机会。
So both Marcato Libre and Newbank are literally eating up the market share for digital banking across Mexico. And I believe that this is a massively untapped market and opportunity for both companies.
下一张截图向我们显示,Morgan Stanley Research 发现 Marcato Libre 正在加快其在墨西哥的增量市场份额获取,现在在该国获得的市场份额比 Amazon 和 Walmart 多出 2/3 以上。
这一差距似乎还在扩大,这说得通,因为其金融科技部门正在快速增长,他们在墨西哥的跨境贸易也非常强劲。所以他们在墨西哥的电子商务平台也在继续夺取巨大的市场份额。
This next screenshot shows us that Morgan Stanley Research found that Marcato Libre is accelerating its incremental market share capture in Mexico now gaining over 2/3 more market share compared to Amazon and Walmart in the country. This gap also appears to be widening which makes sense since the fintech arm is growing rapidly and their crossber trade in Mexico is also very strong. So their e-commerce platform in Mexico is continuing to take massive market share too.
不过,如果我们看看 Marcato Libre 的不良贷款,可以看到它们一直在下降,已从 2024 年约 9.3% 的水平回落。因此,尽管巴西的违约率正处于 14 年高位,Marcato Libre 的不良贷款并没有增长,尽管他们的信贷规模也在大幅扩张。
这表明 Marcato Libre 拥有比整体市场更好的承销模型,并且在放贷上很聪明。
However, if we take a look at Marcato Libre's non-performing loans, you can see that they have been declining and are down from about 9.3% in 2024. So, while Brazil is seeing a 14-year high delinquency rate, Marcato Librey's non-performing loans aren't growing despite them also growing their credit book significantly. This suggests that Marcato Libre has better underwriting models than the overall market and is being intelligent with their lending.
Marcato Libre 来自电商和金融科技平台的大量数据加在一起,让他们对消费者的洞察远超其他任何人,这是一种他们显然正在加以利用的竞争优势。
Marcato Libre's vast amount of data from the e-commerce and fintech platforms together give them so much more insights into the consumer than anyone else which is a competitive advantage that they are clearly using.
所以,我仍然认为 Marcato Libre 很便宜、被低估,拥有市场上最清晰的增长跑道之一。而且我相信这家企业现实上可以在未来十年每年增长 20%。我说的是它的基本面,不一定是它的股价。
它只是在太多尚未开发的市场中运营,并且拥有太多未来增长的途径和可选性。
So, I continue to believe that Marcato Libre is cheap and undervalued with one of the clearest runways for growth in the market. And I believe that this business could realistically grow 20% annually over the next decade. And I'm talking about its fundamentals, not necessarily its share price. It is just operating in so many untapped markets and it has so many avenues and optionality for future growth.
所以,这是一家我计划在未来十年、甚至更长时间里持有投资的企业,因为我相信他们会继续颠覆拉丁美洲并实现显著增长。
So, this is a business that I plan to be invested in for the next decade, if not longer, because I believe that they're going to continue disrupting Latin America and growing significantly.
Marcato Libre 也已成为我的头号重仓之一,因为过去几年我一直在越跌越买、一路加仓。我很高兴能在该股变得如此便宜的时候建起我的仓位。目前,Marcato Libre 是我投资组合中的第四大持仓,占比约 8.7%。
Marcato Libre has also become a top position for me because I have been adding more and more shares over the past couple of years, the entire way down. And I am happy that I was able to build out my position while the stock got so freaking cheap. And currently, Marcato Libre is the fourth largest position in my portfolio at about 8.7% waitings.
这个频道对 $MELI 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。