传闻中的股权融资对Meta不利，因为在当前低估值下稀释成本高，且投资者担忧资本回报。
逐段跳播
我们还有传闻称，Meta 正在考虑进行大规模股权融资，为 AI 基础设施提供资金。
We also have rumored news that Met is weighing a big equity raise to finance AI infrastructure.
当我审视我的投资组合时，我通过四家超大规模企业重仓投资于人工智能。我们有 Meta、谷歌和微软，它们都在资本支出上花费数千亿美元。
When I look at my portfolio, I'm heavily invested in artificial intelligence through four hyperscalers. We have Meta, Google, and Microsoft, all spending hundreds of billions of dollars in capex.
在这些公司中，Meta、微软、亚马逊和谷歌占据了 AI 支出的大部分，它们是这场大规模资本支出建设的主要出资方。而且，你知道，有传言说 Meta 将筹集资金。
Between those companies, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, we have the majority of AI spend, the companies funding this big capex buildout. And you know, there were rumors that Met is going to raise capital.
但正如他在这里强调的，谷歌、Meta、微软和亚马逊正变得更加资本支出密集。
But as he highlights here, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are becoming more capex heavy.
现在，关于这一点，我们有消息称 Meta 正在考虑进行大规模股权融资。这与我们听到的关于谷歌的消息类似。事实上，看起来有点像 Meta 只是在模仿谷歌。他们看到谷歌将通过稀释股东约 1.8% 的股份来获得大量资金。而 Meta 说也许我们也可以这样做。
Now, on this note, we have the news that Meta is weighing a big equity raise. This is similar to what we heard with Google. In fact, it looks a little bit like Meta is just copying Google. They've seen that Google is going to get a lot of money by diluting shareholders by like 1.8%. And Meta is saying maybe we can do the same thing.
现在，我持有这两家公司，Meta 和谷歌。而且我认为，就谷歌而言，这种稀释是一件好事。但我不喜欢 Meta 这样做。而且我希望他们出于几个原因最终不要这样做。
Now, I hold both of these companies, Meta and Google. And I believe in the case of Google, this delusion is a good thing. But I do not like it for Meta. And I hope that they don't end up doing this for a couple of reasons.
当我们看 Meta 时，它现在的市盈率是 19。Meta 的估值要低得多，这意味着当你稀释股东时，你付出的成本比谷歌这样做时要高得多。例如，谷歌要获得 800 亿美元，他们需要稀释约 1.8%。
Meta 要获得同样的 800 亿美元，他们必须稀释约 5% 到 6%。所以，你谈论的是相当程度的稀释。而且，在股票如此便宜的时候，即使稀释任何数量似乎都不是明智之举。如果 Meta 的市盈率上升到 30，我对他们稀释没有意见。
我认为在这种情况下这实际上是有道理的，但在 19 的市盈率下，这没有道理。
When we look at Metas, it's right now at a 19. Meta is at a way, way lower valuation, which means that when you dilute shareholders, you're doing it at a much more substantial cost than when Google's doing this. For example, in order for Google to get $80 billion, they need to dilute around 1.8%. For Meta to get the same $80 billion, they'd have to dilute around 5 to 6%. So, you're talking about a substantial level of dilution. And even diluting any amount when the stock is this cheap does not seem like a smart move. If Meta traded up to a 30p ratio, I would have no problem with them diluting. I think that it would actually make sense in that case, but at a 19, it just doesn't make sense.
接下来，我只是认为 Meta 的投资者对这一消息的反应会比谷歌差得多。不仅因为稀释的成本会高得多，而且因为目前 Meta 的投资者比谷歌更担心资本回报。谷歌已经在一定程度上证明了他们将获得可观的资本回报，或者至少投资者相信这一点。
但对于 Meta，这仍然是一个大问号。所以，我认为这实际上可能对 Meta 的股价产生比谷歌更负面的影响。所以，尽管这只是传闻，我还是希望 Meta 能找到一种不同于稀释股东的方式来筹集资金。
The next thing is that I just believe that Meta investors will react far more poorly to this news than Google. Not only because the dilution would be far more expensive, but because right now investors in Meta are a little bit more concerned about the return on capital than Google. Google has somewhat proven that they're going to have decent returns on capital, or at least investors believe that. But with Meta, that's still a big question mark. So, I think this could actually hit the stock price in a far more negative way for Meta than it did for Google. So, even though this is just rumored news, I'm hoping that Meta finds a different way of raising capital than diluting shareholders.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。