Meta被低估并将复苏，类似于谷歌在ChatGPT后的复苏，尽管当前存在负面情绪和诉讼。

This one is Meta. It's a newer position to the portfolio. Like many newer positions, ones that haven't had years to earn returns, Meta is in the red. It went down quite a bit after my initial buyin price, it's just gone down because of the bad news, the lawsuits, all the people concerned about how Meta's product may change. In my mind, it has a lot of resemblance to what we faced with Google and the whole chat GPT scare. And I have a belief that Meta will turn out similar. And I believe Meta is actually a lot stronger than most investors are pricing in. But regardless, my position is a 10% position in the portfolio. I have $150,000 in this stock. I'm down currently $34,000 in the red. But just like all these other stocks, I need a meaningful dip in Meta for this $10,000 to be added to it. So for this one, I set a buy target of $450.

Now, you may say Meta is already inexpensive. It's already at a low PE ratio. It's already at a decent free cash flow yield. The stock price is already way down year to date. So how is it going to get down to $450? Well, that's the thing. The market can trade companies way down below what they really deserve. It was just in 2023 that Meta was trading for $300 per share. We're getting hit with bad story after bad story on Meta and that can cause the stock price to drop down. Now, if that happens and the $10,000 goes to Meta, this is what the numbers may look like. We have earnings per share growth rate that I set very modestly below 10%. Assuming that Meta is going to do a lot of spending on capex, there's going to be a lot of advertised expenses over the next 5 years. that's going to slow down the EPS growth rate. So, we assume around nine and a half, maybe 10% earnings per share growth rate. For Meta, I'm assuming a very modest appropriate EPS multiple. If Meta traded at a 20p ratio, growing 9.4% and we bought it at $450, that means we'd earn a compounded annual return of 17.2% over the next 5 years.

So for this one, I set a buy target of $450.

Here's Gene on CNBC commenting about Meta. >> Bring in Gene Munster, managing partner with Deepwater Asset Management. Don't own the stock. You don't personally. Deep Water doesn't either, but I know you have views on this. I mean, what what's your take on what, as we said leading into this segment, is the most consequential case on this issue to date?

>> Well, Scott, before I need to preface my comments that I'm a big believer in AI. I think it's going to make the world a much better place longer term, but I think what we're seeing here around the courts is uh minimal. I think it is uh the tip of the iceberg of what is going to be a sea change in terms of the influence that these platforms are going to have on teens and how they see the world. And so there's kind of two different lenses to look through. You know, the the setup that Julia did right there, you know, the impact on Meta, let's say ultimately they're probably going to pay somewhere around 25 billion in fines over the next 5 years, just rough numbers. when they're at a steady state of cash flow, they're going to be generating after they get through this capex uh burst here probably 40, 50, 60 billion a year. So, they can definitely afford five billion a year in and losses. But that's not the point. The point is that Zuckerberg in his manifesto back on August 10th basically said they're throwing out the old playbook. The playbook being the Instagram playbook where you get things kind of fed to you and they're moving to a superbot playbook based on super intelligence. And I my sense is this is going to probably move at first at the speed of a glacier and then a fast glacier. But what Meta is going to be set up for in five years from now is probably lawsuits that are dramatically bigger because if Zuck makes good on talking about or or fulfilling this promise of superbots, uh what we're seeing right now today is really chump change.

>> Wow. This is just the beginning. This is literally, he says, the tip of the iceberg. That we're going through a profound change. That Meta will no longer be influential. That teens aren't going to use it anymore. That the $25 billion lawsuit is just the beginning and they're going to prof face profoundly bigger lawsuits and more profound changes.

Gene, you're just doing it again, man. Uh this is if we rewind time, we go back to Google. Gan, you had the same view on Google. You thought CHACBT was gonna destroy Google. You said it was going to be a big sea change for Google. You said the 10 blue links were no longer going to survive and that Google is going to be a way worse company. You were so bearish on Google when it was trading at $170 per share. It was is at a low price, completely depressed. Sentiment was terrible. And you went on to CNBC and you were talking all the time about Google, how bad this stock was, how it's not going to do well. Now you own Google. It's one of your favorite positions. You go on CNBC seeing how it's going to go up after Google's stock price went up 100%. So you became more more positive sentiment when the reports showed that Google was just fine. Now we find you with Meta doing the same thing. Meta is trading at an 18 Ford PE. Investors already know about the lawsuits. They're already well aware of them. This is an incredibly powerful company with terrible sentiment already priced into the stock. And now you're saying the same thing that it's going to get way worse and investors should be terrified at this point. This feels a lot like a repeat all over again. Maybe Gene will be right this time. Maybe Meta will just continue to go down over the next 5 years. Maybe things will get worse and worse and worse. But I don't believe that's typically how it happens. We're in a time period where Meta is an incredibly high mo strong company, fast growing revenue, record amounts of daily active users, and they know about the fines. you know about the the lawsuits and the stock is trading at an already depressed valuation. So I don't feel like now is the time to become super bearish on Meta and that's why I have to highlight unfortunately Jean as the fail of the week.