Meta被低估;鉴于相对于未来AI收入潜力的低远期市盈率,正在增持。
逐段跳播
这看起来是大型科技公司面临的又一个重大法律障碍,类似于刚刚发生在Meta身上的情况。然后我们将看看Meta所有关于其新人工智能的新发布和推出。他们一直在疯狂地推出产品,似乎股价开始反应良好。
This looks like another major legal hurdle facing one of the big technology companies, similar to what just happened with Meta. Then we will take a look at all of Meta's new releases and launches regarding their new artificial intelligence. They have been rolling out their products like crazy, and it seems the stock is starting to respond well.
在这里你可以看到QMVP中的所有持仓,最著名的是微软、苹果、亚马逊、博通、英伟达、谷歌和Meta。
Here you can see all the holdings within QMVP, most notably Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Broadcom, Nvidia, Google, and Meta.
正如我们刚刚在Meta身上看到的,头条新闻中的数字通常不能反映真实情况,而且往往相差甚远。
As we just saw with Meta, the numbers in the headlines usually don't reflect what's really happening, and often don't even come close.
所以,就像Meta一样,我认为这里最大的潜在成本可能是算法和平台运作方式的改变,而不一定是数十亿美元的罚款。
So, just as with Meta , I think the biggest potential cost here might be a change in the algorithms and how the platform works, not necessarily a multi-billion dollar fine.
现在,让我们继续讨论“Meta”,因为正如我所说,有很多与“Meta”相关的更新我想与你们分享。嗯,这里的第一张截图在我看来相当有趣,因为它显示人们预计Meta将超越谷歌成为全球最大的广告公司。
他们还预计Meta到2028年将产生3164亿美元的广告收入,而谷歌为2980亿美元。
Now, let's move on to discussing "Meta", because, as I said, there are a lot of updates related to "Meta" that I want to share with you. Well, the first screenshot here looks rather funny to me because it shows that people expect Meta to surpass Google to become the world's largest advertising company. They also expect Meta to generate $316.4 billion in advertising revenue by 2028, compared to $298 billion for Google.
但这里的重点是,我现在看到社交媒体上有很多帖子说Meta今年将在广告收入方面超越谷歌。我觉得这很有趣的原因是,我几个月来一直在我的频道上这么说。
But the main point here is that I'm now seeing a lot of posts on social media saying that Meta will surpass Google in terms of advertising revenue this year. The reason I find this funny is that I've been saying this for months here on my channel.
如你所知,如果你是我频道的常客,我会在每份季度报告后跟进所有广告公司。我跟踪谷歌、Meta和亚马逊的广告收入,以观察趋势、它们的增长速度以及哪家公司增加的广告收入最多。
As you know, if you are a regular follower of my channel, I follow up with all advertising companies after each quarterly report. I track advertising revenue for Google, Meta, and Amazon to see trends, how fast they are growing, and which company is adding the most advertising revenue.
在一段时间内,我认为在过去18个月里,Meta是迄今为止增长最快的广告公司。你可以在这张图中清楚地看到,我每个季度都会在我的频道上更新这张图,Meta正在迅速缩小与谷歌广告收入的差距。
For a period of time, I think over the past 18 months, Meta was by far the fastest-growing advertising company . You can clearly see in this graph, which I continue to update here on my channel every quarter, that Meta is narrowing the gap with Google's advertising revenue very quickly.
最终,我认为 Meta 在持续吸引广告资金方面做得非常出色,而且一段时间以来,与亚马逊和谷歌相比,它一直是增长最快、最具吸引力的广告资金提供者。
Ultimately, I think Meta is doing a great job of continuing to attract advertising money, and for a while now, it has been the fastest growing and most attractive advertising money provider compared to Amazon and Google.
好的,现在让我们看下一张截图。这份报告显示,Meta 可能会在未来几周内推出其首个消费者代理,名为“Hatch”。据说 Hatch 是一个高度专用的代理,可以为用户完成任务,例如预订约会、在线购物,甚至寻找宠物保姆。
Hatch 将能够为 Meta 应用用户完成任务,这意味着该公司正试图为全球超过 30 亿用户推出一个专用的 AI 代理。
Okay , let's move on to the next screenshot now. This report suggests that Meta may launch its first consumer agent, named "Hatch," within the next few weeks. Hatch is said to be a highly dedicated agent that can complete tasks for users such as booking appointments, shopping online, or even finding a dog sitter. Hatch will be able to accomplish tasks for Meta app users, meaning the company is trying to launch a dedicated AI agent for more than 3 billion users worldwide.
还有猜测称,最高级别的订阅费用可能高达每月 200 美元。所以,如果这是真的,它可能为 Meta 开辟一条巨大的新收入来源,并真正使其进入订阅业务。
There is also speculation that there may be a subscription that costs up to $200 per month for the highest tier. So , if this is true, it could open up a huge new revenue stream for Meta and really get them into the subscription business.
现在我们看下一张截图。这张截图来自广告领域的一位专家。这里提到,他认为商业代理也将成为总广告支出的一部分。这是因为这些代理将代表公司工作,帮助回答客户问题并最终完成销售。这位专家还认为,人工智能代理将成为一个价值数十亿美元的行业。
Now we move on to the next screenshot. This screenshot comes from an expert in the field of advertising. It was mentioned here that he believes business agents will also become part of total advertising spending. This is because these agents will work on behalf of companies to help answer customer questions and ultimately complete sales. This person also believes that artificial intelligence agents will become a multi-billion dollar industry.
这位专家有一个大约 300 家广告商的委员会。使用 Meta 实验性 AI 代理程序的广告商数量已从不久前的 30 家上升到 45 家。因此,在他们 300 家广告商中,开始使用 Meta 的 AI 代理平台的广告商增加了近 50%。
他们还表示,他们更多的大型公司也开始使用它。因此,采用率似乎在增加,公司对 Meta 专门在 WhatsApp 上工作的 AI 商业代理印象深刻。
This expert has a committee of about 300 advertisers. The number of advertisers using Meta's experimental AI agent program has risen to 45, up from 30 a short time ago. So they saw an almost 50% increase among their 300 advertisers who started using Meta's AI agent platforms. They also say that more of their larger companies have started using it as well. Therefore, it appears that the adoption rate is increasing and that companies are impressed with Meta's AI business agents who specifically work on WhatsApp.
我认为这是该领域专家给出的良好初步回应。好的,让我们看下一张截图。这是我在 X 平台上找到的一张图表,显示 Meta 每位员工的收入。你可以看到,自 2023 年第一季度以来,这一指标已经翻了一番。
因此,Meta 每位员工产生的收入显著增加,表明它正在通过使用和利用人工智能获得效率和收入。
I think this is a good initial response from an expert in this field. Okay, let 's move on to the next screenshot. This is a chart I found currently trading on the X platform, showing Meta revenue per employee. You can see that this metric has doubled since the first quarter of 2023. So, Meta is generating significantly more revenue per employee, indicating that it is gaining efficiencies and revenue from using and leveraging artificial intelligence .
我认为这表明 Meta 在人工智能方面有投资回报,从长远来看,我相信其利润率将继续扩大,因为它每位员工产生的收入要高得多。我相信这最终将带来未来的运营效率。
I think this indicates that there is a meta return on investment in artificial intelligence, and in the long run, I believe that its profit margins will continue to expand because it generates much higher revenue per employee. I believe this will ultimately lead to operational efficiencies in the future.
好的,让我们看下一条新闻。马克·扎克伯格还在 X 上宣布,“Muse Code”现已退出测试版,人们可以开始使用它。这是 Meta 的编程模型,它使其与 Anthropic 的“Cloud”和 OpenAI 的“ChatGBT”编程模型直接竞争。
Okay, let's move on to the next news item. Mark Zuckerberg also announced on X that "Muse Code" is now out of beta and people can start using it. This is Meta's programming model, and it puts it in direct competition with Anthropic's "Cloud" and OpenAI's "ChatGBT " programming models.
我们必须看看这将如何随着时间的推移而发展,但似乎他们也将对其编程模型收取订阅费,这可能是另一个收入来源,使他们进一步深入订阅领域。
We will have to see how this plays out over time, but it appears they will also be charging subscriptions for their programming models , which could be another source of income that pushes them further and further into the subscription space.
看下一张截图,Meta 还推出了一种新的音频模型,可以复制声音,并且处于这些技术的前沿。它实际上是目前用于将语音转换为文本的领先模型。你在屏幕上看到的图表基本上代表了错误率。因此,数字越低越好,在将音频转换为文本时发生的错误就越少。
你可以清楚地看到 Meta 现在处于领先地位。他们新的用于语音转文本的“Muse”模型处于技术前沿。
Moving on to the next screenshot, Meta has also launched a new audio model that copies sound and is at the forefront of these technologies. It is literally the leading model currently available for converting speech to text. The graph you see on your screen essentially represents the error rate. Therefore, the lower the number , the better, and fewer errors will occur in converting audio to text. You can clearly see that Meta is now leading the way . Their new "Muse" model for converting speech to text is at the forefront of the technology.
转到下一张截图。这张截图向我们展示了 Meta 的新图像生成模型在性能与价格方面的位置。基本上,是质量与价格。你可以看到,新的 Meta 模型只需一分钱就能生成高质量的图像。质量与价格的比率已成为最重要的因素,并且也处于领先地位。
Turning to the next screenshot. This screenshot shows us where Meta's new image generation model stands in terms of performance versus price. Basically, quality versus price. You can see that the new Meta model generates high-quality images for just one cent. The quality-to-price ratio has become paramount and is leading the field as well.
你可以想象这个模型对 Meta 的广告业务有多有用,帮助小企业创建广告以在 Meta 平台上使用。总的来说,Meta 发布的新模型要么处于前沿,要么非常接近前沿。它似乎每天都在发布新模型,至少根据我在 X 平台账户上看到的情况是这样。
You can imagine how useful this model is for advertising businesses in Meta, helping small businesses create ads to use on Meta platforms. In general, Meta releases new models that are either at the forefront or very close to it. It seems to be releasing new models daily, at least based on what I see on my X platform account.
此外,Meta 正在为企业、消费者代理、图像生成和编程模型推出几项新的订阅服务。这些都是该公司全新的收入来源,可以分发给超过 30 亿的日活跃用户。
Furthermore, Meta is launching several new subscription offerings for businesses and consumer agents, image generation, and programming models. These are all entirely new revenue streams for the company that it can distribute to more than 3 billion daily active users .
在我看来,Meta 的股价没有考虑到这些未来的收入潜力,因为它已经为当前业务折价,Meta 的远期市盈率为 18。
In my opinion, Meta's share price doesn't take into account any of this future revenue potential because it's already discounted for the current business, with Meta trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18.
这就是为什么在过去几个月里我继续购买大量 Meta 股票,并使其成为我投资组合中更大一部分的根本原因,因为我认为我没有为我们讨论过的所有未来潜力付费。
This is the ultimate reason why I've continued to buy a lot of Meta's shares over the past few months and make it a larger part of my portfolio, because I don't think I'm paying for all of the future potential we've talked about.
再次强调,仅仅是因为我相信当前业务在当今市场上已经被低估了。
Again , simply because I believe that current business is already undervalued in today's market.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。