看多 META;扎克伯格凭借其平台经验在 AI 对齐领域占据领先地位,支撑当前估值(远期市盈率 20.71)偏低、有望扩张至 25-26 的观点。
逐段跳播
就在几个小时前,Meta 的 CEO Mark Zuckerberg 刚刚发布了一些内容,在我看来,这恰恰说明了他为什么可能是这轮 AI 故事中的领军人物。
Just a few hours ago, Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Meta, just posted something that in my opinion showcases why he might be the leader in this AI story.
我想在今天的节目里再多解释一点,分享三只我认为能够从 Meta 的强势中受益的股票。
And I want to explain a little bit more in today's episode share three stocks that I believe can benefit from the strength of Meta.
所以,我确实相信 Mark 在 Meta 内部所拥有的东西,以及这个社交和广告平台,实际上正在非常好地转化到 AI 领域。
So, I do believe that Mark kind of has within Meta and the social and advertisement platform is actually translating really good to the AI space.
用 Mark 的话说,人们不会愿意使用那些与自己不一致、不按他们要求行事的 AI 智能体。所以,实验室有很强的天然动机让自己的模型更加对齐。
Mark's words, people won't want to use AI agents that are misaligned with them and that don't do what they asked. So, labs have a strong natural incentive to make their models more aligned.
但是,Mark Zuckerberg 说的是:“如果我有一个产品推出来,却不做客户想让它做的事,那我就没有产品了,对吧?没有人会用它的。”所以,单从财务角度看,这本身就已经是一个做出优秀对齐产品的动机。
But, Mark Zuckerberg is saying, "If I had a product that came out and didn't do what my customers wanted to do, then I wouldn't have a product, right? No one would use it." So, just financially, that's already an incentive to have a great aligned product.
然后他还说,如果实验室的模型造成伤害,它们将面临重大的责任。所以,它们同样有很强的动机去防止这种情况发生。他接着说道:“Meta 将 Muse 的发货推迟了几个月,以专注于安全和保障。
我们并没有要求其他所有人先这样做,我们才去做。我们只是把它作为日常工作的一部分去做了,因为这对人们、对我们来说显然都是正确的事。引入独立评估者和顾问是行业的最佳实践。MSL 今天已经在几个领域这样做了,因为这有助于产出更好的成果。其他实验室也完全可以这样做。”
Then they He also also that labs face significant liability if their models cause harm. So, they have a strong incentive to prevent this as well. He goes on to say, "Meta delayed shipment of Muse for several months to focus on safety and security.
We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us. Engaging independent evaluators and advisors is industry's best practice.
MSL already does this today in several areas because it helps produce better works. Other labs can just do this, too."
我认为这是 Mark Zuckerberg 一次非常出色的回应,它表明做 CEO 是有层次之分的。
I think this was such a great response by Mark Zuckerberg, and it showcases that there is levels to being a CEO.
当市场上已经有巨头,而且有些人就是按正确的方式做事,比如 Meta Platforms。而且,我确实相信 Mark 在社交平台和广告业务上的经验,给了他一些经验,知道如何创造出某种更加对齐的 AI。
when there's already big players and the people that are just doing it the right way like Meta Platforms. And and again, I do believe the experience that Mark has with its social platforms and with the advertisement business gives him some experience on how to create some form of AI that is more aligned.
因为他们从第一方、第一手的经验中知道,如果自己的产品不安全会发生什么。知道如果自己的产品不做它们该做的事会发生什么。你会面对一系列责任,财务上重大的责任,可能伤害业务,然后同样,你没有一款强大的产品,就不会有对那款产品的需求。
Because they on a first-party basis and first experience know what happens if their products are unsafe. Know what happen if their products don't do what they're supposed to do.
You have a mixture of liabilities, financially significant liabilities that can hurt the business, and then also Again, you don't have a strong product, you're not going to have demand for that product.
我实际上对 Meta Platforms 变得更加看多了。幸运的是,在这个频道里我们之前谈过 Meta,对吧?Meta 谈过很多次,尤其是在股价还在 600 多以下、在 580 多的时候。
如果你回顾一下这个夏天的大部分时间,我几乎不可能做一期每周节目,或者你也不可能在那一周里找到一期我没有谈到 Meta 的节目,对吧?
I I actually have become even more bullish on Meta Platforms. Luckily, in this channel we have talked about Meta before, right? Meta is numerous times, especially it was while the stock was below the 600s, in the 580s.
If you kind of go back through most of the summer, it would be almost impossible for me to do a week a weekly episode or for you to find that episode within the week where I didn't talk about Meta, all right?
因为我相信这个故事:第一,Meta 当时处于便宜的估值;第二,我也相信 Mark 关于能够销售 AI token 的故事是真正有可能实现的。
Because I believe the story that Meta was one sitting at cheap valuations, but two, I also believe that Mark's story of being able to sell AI tokens was really possible.
而现在随着 Muse 上线并真正展现出实力,加上他们拥有庞大的算力,我相信他将能够卖出极具价值的 token。
And now with Muse being up there and really showcasing the strength and them having the massive compute, I believe he will be able to sell tokens that are great value.
而 Meta 的市值不到 2 万亿美元,在我看来仍然相当便宜。所以,我现在喜欢它,但我在 540 多、550 多、560 多的时候要喜欢得多。
And Meta sitting at a market cap of less than $2 trillion is still pretty cheap in my opinion. So, I like it now, but I liked it a lot better at 540s, 550s, 560s.
如果我们看估值,Meta 现在的远期市盈率是 20.71。它曾经一度接近 17。
If we look at valuations, Meta right now is trading at a forward PE ratio of 20.71. At one point, it was closer to 17.
所以,外面并没有多少、并不是疯狂疯狂的增长,但我仍然相信这只股票有多个机会涨到 25、26 倍的远期市盈率。而单是这一点,就仍然是仅靠估值扩张带来的 20% 或 30% 的上涨。
So, not much not crazy crazy growth out there, but I still believe there's multiple opportunities for this stock to go to a forward PE ratio of 25, 26. And that alone is still what 20 or 30% rise just on valuation expansion.
而这还没有算上,如果他们通过销售 token 获得收入的大幅增长。以及来自他们的智能体工具,以及来自新闻整体的增长。
And that's not counting if you got massive growth in the revenue from them selling tokens. And and from their agentic tools and from news overall.
Alexander Wang 也发帖表示:“人们和企业只会使用与自身意图和价值观一致的智能体。如果我们不构建与人和企业一致的模型,他们就会转向更一致的选择。每个实验室都应在训练和部署环节拥有强有力的治理框架。”
Alexander Wang also kind of posted he said, "People and businesses will only use agents that are aligned with their intent and values. If we do not build models aligned with people and business, then they will move to more aligned options.
Every lab should have strong governance frameworks across training and deployment."
在我看来,Meta 今天确实大涨了不少。再说一次,我本来就非常看好这家公司。我可能是少数在 Meta 还在 600 出头时就谈论它的内容创作者之一。而且是因为我找到了看涨的理由。
我确实相信他们能够销售 AI token,我认为这一定会成为一个现实。
I Meta really jumped a lot today in my opinion. Again, already very bullish in this company. I was one of the maybe few content creators that was talking about Meta in the low 600s.
And for the reasons that I found bullish. I did believe that they would be able to sell AI tokens and I think that is going to be a scenario for sure.
而现在看到这一点,对吧?看到 AI 领域其他 CEO 所处的这种疲软和恐惧,你在短短几年、甚至可能更短的时间里,就从一家几十亿美元的公司变成了市值数万亿美元的公司。所以,他们必须学很多东西,而对 Meta 来说幸运的是,Mark 在这个领域已经深耕了非常非常久。
而且一直在努力以安全的方式结合他们的整体产品来开发东西。所以我真的非常喜欢这一点。
And now seeing this, right? Kind of seeing this weakness and fear that other CEOs in this AI space are in, you went from a few billion-dollar company to now being trillions of dollars of companies market worth in just a few years if that, maybe even shorter than that.
So, there is they had to learn a lot and luckily for Meta, Mark has been in this side for a very very long time. And it's been trying to develop stuff safely with their overall products. So, I really really do like that.
现在,我想更仔细地看看三只我认为能从中受益的股票。我确实认为第一只股票是 Meta。就像我提到的,对吧?Meta 目前的估值非常不错,为 20.71。
Now, I want to take a closer look at three stocks that I believe can benefit from this. I do believe the first stock is Meta. Like I mentioned, right? Meta right now is sitting at some really great valuations of 20.71.
显然,Meta 与 Nvidia 以及其他一些参与者有着牢固的合作关系,但我确实相信来自 AMD 的益处以及来自 AMD 的合作关系,将真正帮助他们在营收和利润数字上大幅增长。
Obviously, meta has a strong partnership with Nvidia and some other players as well, but I do believe the benefit from AMD and the partnership from AMD will actually help them grow dramatically in forms of top and bottom line numbers.
所以,有三只股票,我相——我相信能够从 Meta 在 AI 故事中的强势中受益。如果这一势头持续下去,那显然会是 Meta,会是 AMD,也会是高通,这既是因为它们所需的算力,也是因为它们彼此之间某些类型的合作关系。
Uh so, there were three stocks that I can be- I believe can benefit from Meta's strength in the AI story. If it continues, it would be obviously Meta, it would be AMD, and it would be Qualcomm just between on the compute that they need and the certain types of partnerships that they have with each other.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。