Meta 是首选买入标的，810 美元的公允价值意味着未来 12 至 18 个月有超过 8% 的上行空间，这得益于 AI 回报的兑现以及具吸引力的估值。
逐段跳播
Meta Platforms 的股价大幅上涨，我当然对此感到非常高兴。我的投资组合中持有 Meta 的股票，并且我将其列为今年最值得买入的股票之一。
The share price of Meta Platforms has risen enormously, and of course I am very happy about that. I own shares in Meta within my investment portfolio, and I have ranked it as one of the best stocks to buy this year.
事实上，它曾被列为今年最值得买入的股票，但我把它的排名改成了今年第二值得买入的股票。所以我很高兴看到股价在大约一个月内从每股 540 美元涨到每股 750 美元。Meta 的股票今天上涨了 13%，
In fact, it was ranked as the best stock to buy this year, but I changed its ranking to the second best stock to buy this year. So I am pleased to see the stock price soar from $540 per share to $750 per share in about one month . Meta's stock rose 13% today,
而且还有其他利好消息，一位分析师上调了该股的目标价，使其更接近我对该股公允价值的估算。让我们重新评估 Meta，看看它是否仍是一个绝佳的买入机会，还是鉴于近期股价的大幅上涨已经为时已晚。
and there was other positive news as an analyst raised the target price for the stock to be closer to my estimate of the stock's fair value. Let's reassess Meta to see if it's still a great buying opportunity or if it's too late given the recent surge in the stock price.
Meta 的股票在今年大部分时间里都处于下跌区间，几乎全年都令人沮丧。因此，看到近期股价的改善更加令人鼓舞。自 1 月以来，我一直将这只股票评为最佳投资机会。
Meta's stock spent most of the year in the red zone, and it was frustrating almost all year round . Therefore, it is more encouraging to see the recent improvement in the stock price.
I have been rating this stock as the best investment opportunity since January.
我在其中看到了机会，尽管该股表现一直令人失望，我仍继续强调买入评级。如你所见，该股在今年大部分时间里都处于下跌区间。直到最近，股价表现才从 540 美元大幅改善至今日交易中的 747 美元。
I saw an opportunity in that , and continued to emphasize a buy rating despite the stock's consistently disappointing performance. As you can see, the stock remained in the red zone for most of the year.
Only recently has the stock price performance improved significantly from $540 to $747 in today's trading.
当然，今天对 Meta 来说是重要的一天。在一位 Wells Fargo 分析师上调该公司的目标价后，该股上涨超过 12%，该分析师援引了 AI 代理应用 MetaMuse 在苹果 App Store 上排名第一这一理由。
Of course, today was a big day for Meta. The stock rose more than 12% after a Wells Fargo analyst raised the company's price target, citing the AI proxy app MetaMuse's top spot on Apple's App Store.
在给投资者的一份报告中，分析师 Kenny 将该公司的目标价从 640 美元上调至 796 美元。该分析师表示，Meta 近期成功推出的人工智能原型产品，包括其新的 Spark 产品和智能助手，证明该公司现在在人工智能能力方面有了可以讲述的故事。
In a note to investors, analyst Kenny raised the company's target price from $640 to $796. The analyst said that Meta's recent successful AI prototype launches, including its new Spark offering and smart assistant, are proof that the company now has a story to tell regarding its AI capabilities.
换句话说，Meta 在人工智能上花费的数千亿美元现在开始见到回报，而且仍处于早期阶段。因此，该分析师将其目标价上调至 796 美元，这与我今天更新的对 MetaPlatforms 的估值 810 美元公允价值非常接近。
In other words, all the hundreds of billions of dollars that Meta has spent on artificial intelligence are now starting to pay off , and it is still in its early stages. Therefore, the analyst raised his target price to $796, which is very close to my estimate for MetaPlatforms, which I updated today at $810 as a fair value.
与本视频录制时 749 美元的市场价格相比，我仍然认为 Meta 的股票在未来 12 到 18 个月内有超过 8% 的上涨潜力。
Compared to the market price of $749 at the time this video was recorded , I still see a potential for an increase of over 8% in Meta's stock over the next 12 to 18 months.
此外还要加上 Meta 明年可能实现的股权风险溢价的价值，即加权平均资本成本或股权成本，大约比 8% 的回报率高出 12%。
Added to that is the value of the equity risk premium that Meta is likely to achieve next year, i.e., the weighted average cost of capital or cost of equity, which is approximately 12% above the rate of return of 8%.
因此，按当前估值，Meta 股票的风险回报比在我看来仍然具有吸引力。
Therefore, the risk-reward ratio of Meta stock at its current valuation still looks attractive to me.
当我们用预期市盈率来评估估值时，这是给股票估值的另一种方式。在录制本视频时，该股的预期市盈率为21.4，考虑到Meta的收入增长超过20%、接近30%，这是一个相对便宜的数值。
When we look at the valuation using the forward price-to-earnings ratio, which is another way to value a stock. At the time of recording this video, the stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4, which is a relatively cheap figure considering that Meta is growing its revenues by more than 20%, approaching 30%.
其营业利润率正接近50%，而且这家企业在竞争优势方面正在改善。如前所述，Meta已花费数千亿美元来增强其人工智能能力，包括推荐系统和广告定向。
Its operating profit margins are approaching 50%, and the business is improving in terms of competitive advantage. As mentioned, Meta has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to enhance its artificial intelligence capabilities, including recommendation systems and ad targeting.
它提高了广告支出的回报，也改善了用户体验。Meta在这些领域投入的规模远大于其较小的竞争对手，包括Pinterest、Reddit、Snap和X。
It improves the return on advertising spending. It also improves the user experience. Meta can invest in these categories on a much wider scale than its smaller competitors, including Pinterest, Reddit, Snap, and X.
因此，它增强了自己的竞争优势，而它本来就已经是所有可用地区中全球最好的社交媒体平台。但它与竞争对手之间的差距正在扩大，因为Meta能够以竞争对手无论如何都无法匹敌的规模，投入资金来提升其核心效率、能力和竞争优势。
Therefore, it enhances its competitive advantage, and it was already the best social media platform in the world wherever it was available. But the gap between it and its competitors is widening because Meta is able to invest in improving its core efficiency, capabilities and competitive advantages on a scale that its competitors cannot match in any way.
因此，Meta下跌并以如此便宜的估值交易，唯一的原因就是人们担心那些人工智能投资被浪费了，以及担心其负的自由现金流会持续很多年，而我认为这并不属实。
Therefore, the only reason for Meta's decline and trading at such a cheap valuation was the fear that those AI investments were wasted, and the fear that its negative free cash flows would continue for many years , which I don't believe is true.
事实上，我估计Meta今年的现金流将为负60亿美元，明年会大幅恶化，达到负240亿美元，但到2028年将转为正31.6亿美元，然后在2029年开始收获可观的回报，达到500亿美元。
In fact, I estimate that Meta's cash flow will be negative this year by $6 billion, and will get much worse next year to reach negative $24 billion, but it will turn positive in 2028 by $3.16 billion, and then start to reap significant rewards in 2029 to reach $50 billion.
如果你认为Meta实现500亿美元的自由现金流是不现实的，那么这正是该公司在开始大规模投资人工智能之前所录得的水平。2024年，该公司录得495亿美元的自由现金流。
If you think achieving $50 billion in free cash flow for Meta is unrealistic. This is the level the company was recording before it began its massive investments in artificial intelligence.
In 2024, the company recorded $49.5 billion in free cash flow.
因此，我对2029年自由现金流为500亿美元的估计，不过是回到此前的水平。然后在此基础上继续增长，到2030年达到680亿美元，此后持续增长。
Therefore, my estimate of free cash flow in 2029 at $50 billion is simply a return to that previous level. Then building from that point, to reach 68 billion in 2030, with continued growth thereafter .
短期内，我看到Meta在数据中心投资和提升人工智能能力方面会带来显著的负面影响。这些是我预计在2026年、2027年和2028年最大的影响。
In the short term, I see a significant negative impact on Meta's investments in its data centers and improving its artificial intelligence capabilities. These are the biggest impacts I expect in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
是的，连续三年对其现金流造成重大负面影响，然后回到历史水平，届时它们每年都能实现巨额自由现金流，因为它们是一家非常赚钱的企业。
Yes, three years of a major negative impact on their cash flows, then a return to historical levels where they achieved huge free cash flows annually because they are a very profitable business.
用户生成内容的商业模式非常赚钱。是使用这些应用的人创造了互动。Meta并不为此向他们付费，却从他们的互动中获利。
The user-generated content business model is very profitable. It is the people who use the apps who create the interaction. Meta does not pay them for it , but profits from their interaction.
平台上的人越多，就越促使其他人花更多时间待在那里，因为那里是朋友和家人所在的地方。
The more people there are on the platform, the more it encourages others to spend more time there because it is where friends and family are.
如果你想联系他人、查看最新动态、评论照片，甚至评论你周末和朋友们参加的一场派对，你都会转向Meta旗下的某个平台，要么是Facebook，要么是Instagram。
If you want to connect, see the latest status updates, comment on photos, or even on a party you attended over the weekend with your friends, you will turn to one of the Meta platforms, either Facebook or Instagram.
而Meta从所有这些互动中获利。一个极其赚钱的商业模式，拥有非常高的利润率，加上显著的扩张和网络效应的运用，任何竞争对手都很难渗透进来，尤其是在人工智能投资的情况下。
And Meta profits from all that interaction. A highly profitable business model, with very high profit margins, and with significant expansion and the use of network effects, it is difficult for any competitor to penetrate it, especially in light of artificial intelligence investments.
所以，是的，我将重申我把Meta列为目前最值得买入的十大股票之一。事实上，我可以说它是前五大股票之一。我把它列为目前第二值得买入的股票，并且我在今天，9月21日，重申了这一排名，即便该股股价在一天内上涨了一个百分点。
So , yes, I will reaffirm my ranking of Meta as one of the top 10 stocks to buy right now. In fact, I can say that it is one of the top five stocks. I have ranked it as the second best stock to buy right now, and I reaffirmed this ranking today, September 21, even after the stock price rose by a percentage point in one day.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。