$META

Meta 长期被低估;近期产品发布尚未引发估值重估,使其股价相对于自身潜力仍显便宜。

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《i like this stock》
Meet Kevin发布 2026-09-23 · 30 段内容
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30 段内容
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我们需要谈谈 Meta 的股票及其目标价,尤其是在 Meta Mews 时代。显然,自周一以来,围绕 Meta 和 Meta Mews 的讨论非常热烈,它登顶了应用商店,用户数达到 250 万,增长迅猛,甚至有网红用它来谈论它,等等。

Okay, we need to talk about Meta stock and its price targets, especially in the Meta Mews era. Clearly, there has been a lot of buzz about Meta and Meta Mews since Monday, with it topping the app store , reaching 2.5 million users, experiencing tremendous growth, and even influencers using it to talk about it, etc.

我还没有从 Meta 那里获得过照护,但我会很乐意接受。让我确认一下这一点。因为我真的认为这个产品很棒。但现实一点说,华尔街对 Meta 股票的估值并没有改变,其隐含波动率极低。

I have not received care from Meta yet, but I would gladly accept it. Let me confirm that. Because I really think the product is great. But let's be realistic, Wall Street's valuation of Meta's stock hasn't changed, and its implied volatility is extremely low.

我们假设华尔街预期 Meta 的平均增长率为 15%。

Let's assume that Wall Street expects Meta to grow at an average rate of 15% .

所以我想知道,自 Meta Muse 推出以来,该股的估值是否出现了上升。答案是:目前还没有出现上升。这些是预估数据:每股收益 34.85,使股价约为收益的 21 倍。

So I wanted to know if the stock had seen a rise in valuation since the launch of Meta Muse. The answer is: It has not yet seen an increase. These are the estimates: 34.85 earnings per share , making the share price about 21 times earnings.

从预期增长率来看,华尔街预计该公司利润明年增长 9%,随后是 23%,然后是 17%,再然后是 12%。这相当于每年平均约 15.7%。

Looking at projected growth rates , Wall Street expects this company's profits to grow by 9% next year, followed by 23%, then 17%, and then 12%. This equates to an average of about 15.7% per year.

在我看来,在 Meta Muse 推出之后,除了广告领域正在发生的事情,尤其是人工智能领域的激烈竞争之外,我认为对 Meta 而言 15% 太低了。

In my opinion, after the launch of Meta Muse, in addition to what is happening in the field of advertising, especially with the intense competition in the field of artificial intelligence, I think that 15% for Meta is too low.

这就是我投资 Meta 的原因,我也在这个频道上推广它,甚至说过股价即将大幅上涨,因为当时它大约在 566 美元。

That's why I invested in Meta, and I was promoting it on this channel, even saying that the stock price was about to go up significantly since it was around $566.

自己做做研究,输入“Meet Kevin meta stock August 28th”。你会发现 Meta 的股票即将大幅上涨。看看那个关于他们财务数据的详细视频,以及我为什么认为其价格太低。它已经上涨了。

Do your own research, and type in "Meet Kevin meta stock August 28th". You will find that Meta's stock is about to rise significantly. Watch the detailed video about their financial data and why I thought its price was too low. It has already risen.

现在,有趣的是,自那次上涨以来,我们没有看到该股出现任何重新估值。在我看来,这意味着重新评估仍然遥遥无期。这以一种奇怪的方式意味着,该股仍然便宜。

Now, the interesting thing is that since that rise, we have not seen any revaluation of the stock. This means, in my opinion, that a reassessment is still a long way off . This means, in a strange way, that the stock is still cheap.

现在,你能利用市场波动吗,比如:在传闻时买入,在今天和明天的 Meta 活动、马克·扎克伯格的主题演讲以及关于某某产品的公告之后卖出?当然可以。但谁在乎呢?这些只是短期波动。在我看来,这是一个极好的长期买入机会。

Now, can you take advantage of market fluctuations, for example: buy on rumors, and sell after today's and tomorrow's Meta event, Mark Zuckerberg's keynote, and announcements about such and such products?

naturally. But who cares? These are just short-term fluctuations. In my opinion, this is an excellent long-term purchase.

显然,这不是给你的个人理财建议。而且我投资了这只股票,所以如你所知,我总是把偏见和风险考虑在内。目前 Meta 在 5 日和 10 日基础上的波动率非常低。嗯,也不算很低,只是低于平均水平。

Obviously, this is not personal financial advice for you . And I invest in the stock , so as you know, I always take bias and risk into account. Volatility is currently very low for Meta on a 5 and 10 day basis.

Well, it's not quite low, it's just below average.

在 Meta News 出现那波飙升之后,我原本预期期权波动率会进一步上升。这实际上意味着现在买入期权很便宜。如果你看空,可以买入看跌期权。如果你看多,可以买入看涨期权,对吧?

但相比其历史波动率,现在的期权便宜得惊人。在 5 日和 10 日基础上低于平均水平,考虑到它们所面临的刺激因素,在我看来这很棒。

After the surge they saw in Meta News, I expected options volatility to rise even further. This actually means that the options are cheap to buy now. If you are pessimistic, you can buy put options.

If you're optimistic, you can buy call options, right? But the options are surprisingly cheap now compared to their historical volatility. It's below average on a 5- and 10-day basis, which is great in my opinion, considering the stimulus they're facing.

现在,我们来看看摩根大通的报告。因此,摩根大通准备了这份关于 MetaTrader 的报告,并为其设定了 820 美元的目标价。

Now, let's take a look at the JPMorgan report . Therefore, JPMorgan Chase prepared this report on MetaTrader, and set a target price for it at $820.

老实说,我认为目标价要高得多。如果我们假设 Meta 的净利润率平均为 35%,即每增加一美元净利润,那么这个净利润率将使该股的市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG)约为 2.69。

Honestly, I think the target price is much higher. If we assume that Meta's net profit margin is 35% on average for every dollar added to net profit, then this net margin would put the stock at a price-to-growth ratio (PEG) of approximately 2.69.

该公司直到最近一直在回购股票,这意味着它在消耗现金,而从现金流的角度看这并不成立。因此,你不再有多少现金流回报,这就解释了为什么市销增长比率偏低。

The company has been repurchasing shares until recently, which means it is draining cash, and this is not true from a cash flow perspective. Therefore, you no longer have much cash flow return, which explains the low price-to-growth ratio.

但如果你把 2.69 的市销增长比率乘以 3485,再把结果乘以大约 20%,那么这只股票在我眼里的价值就是 1875 美元。

But if you multiply the price- to-growth ratio of 2.69 by 3485, and then multiply the result by approximately 20%, then the value of this stock to me is $1875.

此时,股价已经达到了它的真实价值,如果这个价格因为 Intuit 或 Deal 股价突然上涨而被突然超越,那也没关系。只有当它的价值过度超过这些水平时,我才会卖出这只股票。但只要它的价格不超过 2000 美元,我连卖出的念头都不会有。

At this point, the stock price has reached its true value, and if this price is suddenly exceeded due to a sudden rise in the price of Intuit or Deal stock, that's fine. Only then will I sell the stock if its value exceeds these levels excessively.

But as long as its price doesn't exceed $2000, I won't even think about selling it.

这就是为什么我写道,JPMorgan 给出的 820 美元目标价看起来是个低价。他们在谈论 Meta Muse 的广泛流行以及围绕它的热度。他们还谈到 Meta 的发布速度,在发布后短短两周内就推出了一系列创新。

That's why I wrote that JPMorgan's $820 price tag seems like a low price. They are talking about the widespread popularity of Meta Muse and the buzz surrounding it . They also talk about the speed of Meta's launch, with a series of innovations within just two weeks of its release.

Meta Muse 已经推出了面向企业外呼的测试版。这一点极其重要,因为盈利的公司花钱是因为它们想要增长。盈利的公司会花钱。因此,如果你能把产品卖给盈利的公司,并帮助它们赚更多的钱,你也会获利。

Meta Muse has launched a beta version for outgoing calls to businesses. This is extremely important, because companies that make a profit spend money because they want to grow.

Companies that make a profit spend money. Therefore, if you can sell your products to companies that make a profit and help them make more profit, you will also profit.

企业对企业(B2B)营销是有利可图的,但它收取的费用也更高。无论如何,他们让开发者能够创建 Muse 连接器,并发布了 Mac 版 Muse。他们还加入了 Shop Pay,让支付流程更简便。

Business-to-business (B2B) marketing is profitable, but it also charges higher fees. In any case, they enabled developers to create Muse connectors and released Muse for Mac. They also added Shop Pay to make the payment process easier.

我们预计 Meta 会把采用率和参与度置于近期变现之上,同时对长期变现有着清晰的愿景。佣金模式、预订费和潜在客户开发。

We expect Meta to prioritize adoption and engagement over near-term monetization, with a clear vision for long-term monetization. Commission models, booking fees, and lead generation.

我讨厌 JP Morgan,但这实际上是对 Meta 非常公允的一份分析。我认为他们对 Meta 持悲观态度,但我认为这是一份非常好的分析。他们甚至谈到 Meta 如何能从智能体之间的互动中获利,这很棒。如你所知,再一次,企业对企业交易是赚钱的。

I hate JP Morgan, but this was actually a very fair analysis of Meta. I think they are pessimistic about Meta, but I thought this was a very good analysis. They even talk about how Meta can profit from interactions between agents, which is great .

As you know, once again, business-to-business transactions make money.

现在,Meta 智能眼镜已经出现,我们就 Meta 智能眼镜能以智能体方式为你提供什么进行了一场实时对话。我已经有好几副不同的 Meta 眼镜。我把它们用于各种用途。我会在这里推广它,尽管我并没有得到 Meta 的赞助。

我只在我认为某样东西对你有用时才会去推广。这很重要。

Now, Meta Smart Glasses have emerged and we had a live conversation about what Meta Smart Glasses can offer you on an agent basis. I already have several different Meta glasses .

I use it for various purposes. I will promote it here, even though I am not sponsored by Meta. I only like to promote things when I think they are useful to you. It's huge.

显然,如果你像我一样远视力不好,它会很有帮助。不知为何,我擅长看股票图表和近处的东西。但看远处就稍微困难一些,所以作为一名喷气式飞机飞行员,我当然得戴这副眼镜。

Obviously, it's helpful if you suffer from poor distance vision like me. For some reason, I'm good at reading stock charts and things up close. But seeing from a distance is a little more difficult, so as a jet pilot, I had to wear these glasses, of course.

对于戴眼镜的人来说,这显然非常有用,因为戴眼镜往往是必要的。不过,除了日常眼镜之外,你还可以配其他眼镜;我在滑雪甚至水上活动时都用这副眼镜。太棒了。我喜欢这副眼镜,因为中间有摄像头。

它们非常适合在滑雪或休闲活动时拍家庭照片,甚至给孩子拍。我有七个孩子,所以有很多东西要记录。

It is obviously very useful for those who wear eyeglasses, as wearing them is often necessary. However, you can get glasses other than everyday glasses; I use these glasses for skiing or even for water activities.

It's wonderful. I like these glasses because of the camera in the middle. They are excellent for taking family photos while skiing or during recreational activities, or even for your children.

I have seven children, so I have a lot to document.

至于他们推出的智能眼镜,内置了一个程序可以与 Meta AI 对话,只需问它:“我看到了什么?”或者问一些类似于普通聊天中会问的一般性问题。说实话,这非常糟糕。这是他们为 Meta 眼镜能想出的最糟糕的软件营销方案。

所以我觉得这个市场完全没有被开发,因为他们的产品一开始就非常糟糕。

As for the smart glasses they launched with an integrated program to talk to Meta AI and simply ask them: "What do I see?" Or ask general questions similar to those asked in a general chat.

Honestly, it's very bad. It's the worst software marketing program they could have come up with with Meta glasses. So I feel that this market was completely untapped because their product was very bad to begin with.

Meta 在这一领域拥有 86% 的市场份额。

Meta has a market share of 86% in this field.

部分原因可能是 Meta 即将推出并以其所谓的慷慨来发布;JP Morgan 提供了免费档,而 Grok 没有。

Part of this may be due to the fact that Meta is coming and launching with what they call generosity; JP Morgan has offered a free tier, while Grok does not.

而 Meta 平台上有大约 32 亿用户,对吧?

and you have about 3.2 billion users on the Meta platform, right?

我想我会对此坦诚。我通常的意思是,这些股票现在日内已经上涨了 3%,这很棒。但我会对此坦诚。我希望它在活动之后会有所下跌。因为如果活动之后下跌,我就能在变现真正体现在他们财报之前逢低买入。

所以如果人们因为活动之后势头放缓而卖出,那对我来说没问题。我是个买家。

I think I'll be honest about this . I usually mean that the stocks have risen 3% during the day now, which is great. But I'll be honest about this . I'm hoping it will decrease somewhat after the event.

Because if it drops after the event, I can buy the dip before the monetization actually shows up in their earnings. So if people sell because of a slowdown in momentum after the event , that's fine with me. I am a buyer.

这个频道对 $META 的历次判断

Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 19 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-24
MetaConnect 活动刚刚结束,以下是我对此次活动的总结。首先,对于关注该股的人来说,是的,这种情况很可能是一次“利好传闻时买入、消息落地后卖出”。
原话 00:00 ›
2026-09-23看涨本条
我们需要谈谈 Meta 的股票及其目标价,尤其是在 Meta Mews 时代。
2026-09-21看涨
不只是Meta和AMD这两只股票,它们今天的表现非常出色。
原话 00:09 ›
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