$MKL

Markel是良好的长期持有标的;其市净率为1.2倍,赔付率改善,回购保守但可能更为积极,支撑未来表现。

看涨他说的是几年内
《Why Own a Sports Team Stock? Jonathan Boyar on MSGS, Braves & 3 Other Value Picks》
The Acquirers Podcast发布 2026-09-30 · 15 段内容
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15 段内容
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Markle是我们非常熟悉的名字。它是下一个Berkshire Hathaway吗?不是。我的意思是,我认为它是一项有吸引力的投资。我相信Berkshire Hathaway只有一个。

我认为Markle前途光明,但我不想虚伪地说它是……我知道那样说对头条新闻之类有好处,但它不是。

Markle is a name we know very well. Is it the next Berkshire Hathaway? no. I mean, I think it's an attractive investment. I believe there is only one Berkshire Hathaway. I think Markle has a bright future ahead of her, but I don't want to be disingenuous and say that she is...

I know that's good for headlines and stuff, but she isn't .

你有一家公司,其股价为账面价值的1.2倍,而这家公司在过去两年里严重错失了保险市场。她不擅长撰写保险文件,这对任何保险公司来说都是个问题,但她似乎开始有所改善。是的,他们有一位新的人负责这项任务,到目前为止初步结果看起来非常有希望。亏损与利润的比率正在下降。

You have a company whose shares are trading at 1.2 times their book value, and it is a company that has significantly missed the insurance market over the past two years. She wasn't good at writing insurance documents, which is a problem for any insurance company, but it seems she's starting to improve.

Yes, they have a new person in charge of this task, and so far the initial results look very promising. The ratio of losses to profits is decreasing.

它由Tom Gaynor经营,他在股票回购方面一直有些保守。我认为他未来会更加大胆。否则,我认为Markle和Jana会让他们非常难受。

It is run by Tom Gaynor, who has been somewhat conservative in share buybacks. I think he will be bolder in the future. Otherwise, I think Markle and Jana will make things very difficult for them.

所以,我认为有很多积极的方面。我认为这可能是一家你可以长期持有股票并获得良好业绩的公司。它会变得像Berkshire Hathaway吗?不会,但它可能是一只不错的股票。

So, I think there are a lot of positive aspects. I think it could be a company where you can hold shares for a long time and achieve good performance. Will it become like Berkshire Hathaway? No , but it might be a good stock.

他们是如何错失艰难的保险市场的?那里发生了什么?我的意思是,他们在发展业务方面做得不好,你知道,在签发保单方面。他们没有提高他们打算签发的文件数量。他们进入了再保险领域,结果是一场灾难。

如你所知,唯一表现良好的部门是国际部门,而这正是新任经理来自的领域。所以,他们错过了这班车,这就是现实。

How did they miss the tough insurance market ? What happened there? I mean, they didn't do a good job of developing their business, you know, in issuing insurance policies. They did not improve the number of documents they intended to issue.

They entered the reinsurance field, and it was disastrous. As you know , the only department that performed well was the international department, which is the area from which the new manager comes.

So, they missed the train, and that's the reality.

但未来,如果他们能降低赔付率,这本质上就是他们的利润率,从而提高利润率,他们可能会在长期表现良好,尤其是如果他们在账面价值的1.2倍回购自己的股票。此外,他们拥有工业公司和金融资产。

他们有一个表现相当不错的股票投资组合,而讽刺的是,或者也许并不讽刺,Berkshire是他们最大的投资。所以,这个标的有许多他们喜欢的地方。

But in the future, if they can reduce their loss ratio, which is essentially their profit margin, thus increasing their profit margin, they may perform well in the long run, especially if they repurchase their shares at 1.2 times their book value.

In addition, they own industrial companies and financial assets. They have a stock portfolio that has performed reasonably well , and ironically, or perhaps not ironically, Berkshire is their largest investment. So, there is a lot they like about this name.

我只是觉得把它与几乎任何其他公司相比并说它将成为下一个Berkshire Hathaway是不公平的。但我认为投资者应该更深入地研究一下。

I just think it's unfair to compare it to almost any other company and say it's going to be the next Berkshire Hathaway. But I think investors should take a deeper look.

过去几年里,Markle的股价相对于其账面价值是如何表现的?我相信它们都走过了2020年,因为它们的价值跌破了账面价值。是的,我相信从历史上看,市盈率是其账面价值的1.7或1.8倍。

是的,与Berkshire和Fairfax相比,市盈率在大多数时候都相当高。

How has Markle's stock traded compared to its book value over the past years ? I believe they all passed 2020, as their value fell below their book value. Yes, and I believe that historically the price-to-earnings ratio was 1.7 or 1.8 times its book value.

Yes, the price-to-earnings ratio was rather high most of the time , compared to Berkshire and Fairfax.

但他们股票的账面价值有点误导人。我不想说它误导人,但他们有其他类型的业务。因此,很难必然把账面价值视为最优的倍数,但如果你能以账面价值的1.2倍买入一家盈利的保险公司,并且能够在未来两年提高保费,我认为你会取得良好的结果。

But the book value of their shares is a bit misleading. I do n't want to say it's misleading, but they have other types of businesses. Therefore, it is difficult to necessarily consider book value as the optimal multiple, but if you can buy a profitable insurance company at 1.2 times its book value, and be able to increase insurance premiums over the next two years, I think you will achieve good results.

你认为你会看到公司价值的增长,还是说它只是一个具有良好基础增长的合理价值?我认为你不能仅仅依靠利润翻倍。那可能是可能的,但我相信运营业绩会改善,整体情况会改善,这将导致公司价值的增长。

但我不认为那是唯一的标准。你应该拥有一家会持续改善或表现卓越的好企业。

Do you think you will see an increase in the company's value, or is it just a fair value with good underlying growth? I think you can't rely solely on doubling profits. That may be possible, but I believe that operational performance will improve, and the overall situation will improve, which will lead to an increase in the company's value.

But I don't think that's the only criterion. You should have a good business that will continue to improve or perform excellently.

如果你是长期持有者,而他们理性地管理资本,你会每天都希望公司的价值下降。只要他们在买入股票,他们做得还不够快,但确实如此。但如果你有钱可投资,你会希望你的持股比例下降,直到你完全投入这家公司。

If you are a long-term owner, and they manage capital rationally, you wish every day that the value of the company would decrease. As long as they are buying stocks, they haven't done it quickly enough, but yes.

But if you have money to invest, you want your stake to decrease until you are fully invested in the company.

Tom Gaynor多大年纪?我想是六十多岁末,也许我记错了。对吗?我认为比那更小。我想他可能会说:我不想给他多加几岁。啊,但现在……他们也任命了他……哦,有趣的是Markle不是一家控股公司。Markle……三人中的最后一位……63岁。

How old is Tom Gaynor? I think it was in the late sixties, maybe I'm wrong. Is this correct? I think it's smaller than that. I think he might say: I do n't want to give him extra years.

Ah, but now...they've also appointed him...oh, the interesting thing is that Markle is not a controlled company . Markle...the last of the three...is 63 years old.

啊,它不是一家控股公司。我相信Steve Markle刚刚离开了董事会,Tom现在是董事长兼CEO。我通常不喜欢这种情况,但这就是现实。可能会有人收购这家公司。嗯,我不知道是谁,但据我了解,日本保险公司,或者更确切地说是企业集团和保险公司,有强烈的意愿收购美国保险公司。

Ah, it's not a controlled company. I believe Steve Markle has just left the board, and Tom is now chairman and CEO. I generally don't like these situations, but that's the reality.

Someone might buy this company. Well, I don't know who, but as I understand it, Japanese insurance companies, or rather conglomerates and insurance companies, have a strong desire to acquire American insurance companies.

这就是投资逻辑吗?不是,但如果股价持续低迷,没人知道会发生什么,不过有些人可能会误以为马克尔家族控制着这家公司,事实并非如此。

Is this the investment hypothesis? No, but if the shares remain low, no one knows what will happen, but some may mistakenly think that the Markle family controls this company, which is not true .

如果你想要一些免费报告,我相信在Madison Square Garden Sports和Markel上可以找到。

If you would like to get some free reports, I believe they are available on Madison Square Garden Sports and Markel.

观察点

赔付率下降以及股份回购活动
赔付率下降且回购力度加大
未来两年财报
若利润率改善且资本回报加速,则支持看涨逻辑

这个频道对 $MKL 的历次判断

The Acquirers Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-30看涨本条
Markle是我们非常熟悉的名字。它是下一个Berkshire Hathaway吗?不是。我的意思是,我认为它是一项有吸引力的投资。我相信Berkshire Hathaway只有一个。我认为Markle前途光明,但我不想虚伪地说它是……我知道那样说对头条新闻之类有好处,但它不是。
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