3M的买入机会已过，因估值偏高（现价180美元对比公允价值147美元）；适合长期持有，但新买入的优先级较低。
逐段跳播
3M 与微软建立了战略数据中心合作伙伴关系，将其专利的扩束光学技术部署在数据中心。该技术可将电路安装时间缩短 85%，当然，任何与数据中心相关的事物都在蓬勃发展。
3M entered a strategic data center partnership with Microsoft to deploy its patented expanded beam optical technology in data centers. The technology reduces circuit installation time by 85% and of course anything related to data centers is booming.
话虽如此，投资者不应对此过于兴奋，因为这仍然是 3M 业务中相对较小的一部分。即使基于 3M 在 2026 年上半年的强劲表现，管理团队也预测有机收入增长率将超过 3.5%。
That being said, it's important for investors not to get too excited about this because it's still a relatively small part of 3M's business. Even based on the strong first half performance for 3M in 2026, the management team is forecasting revenue growth organic revenue growth of greater than 3 and 1/2%
所以，这是一个目前正在蓬勃发展的业务。但新的合作伙伴关系和低至中个位数的有机销售增长，是否使 3M 成为股息股票投资者眼中具有吸引力且相对安全的买入机会？
So this is an a boot business that's booming right now. But does the new partnership and organic sales growth in the low to mid single digits make 3M an attractive relatively safe buying opportunity for dividend stock investors?
3M 是那种大型企业集团，由于资产剥离、收购和合并，其销售数据波动较大。在公司业绩中可以看到，由于资产剥离，销售额从 350 亿美元一路下降至 250 亿美元。
So 3M is one of those large conglomerates that generates volatile sales figures because of divestitures and acquisitions and mergers. And you see that here in the company's results sales falling from $35 billion all the way down to $25 billion as a result of a divestiture.
销售额再次增长，正如我提到的，2026 年预计至少增长 3.5%。长期来看，如果 3M 在五年或十年期间报告中等个位数的收入增长，投资者会感到满意。
Sales are growing again as I mentioned 3 and 1/2% at least expected for 2026. Longer term, investors would be happy with 3M if they reported mid single digit revenue growth for a five or 10 year period.
这意味着在那段时间内收入增长 4%、5% 或 6%，凭借其历史水平的经营杠杆，每股收益增长几乎是收入增长的两倍到两倍半，这意味着每股收益可能会以 10%、11%、12%，甚至 13% 的速度增长，而收入增长仅为 4%、5% 或 6%。
That means four or five or six percent revenue growth over that time period with its historic levels of operating leverage that generates earnings per share growth almost two two and a half times its revenue growth, meaning that earnings per share will likely come in at 10, 11, 12, maybe 13% growth on revenue growth of just 4, 5, or 6%.
所以，如果这种模式能够持续并长期保持，那么对于长期股东价值的增长来说是非常非常好的。从历史上看，3M 的营业利润率约为 20%。
So, that kind of formula is very, very good for long-term shareholder value growth if it's consistent and longer term. Historically, 3M generates an operating profit margin around 20%.
围绕这一指标存在波动，但如果我们排除 2024 年资产剥离带来的噪音，并更关注其长期平均水平，投资者可以合理相信公司能够实现约 20% 的营业利润率。
There's been volatility surrounding this metric, but if we exclude that noise around 2024 with the divestiture, and we focus more on its longer-term average, investors would be reasonably confident that the company can generate operating profit margins around 20%.
所以，如果我们谈论的是 3%、4%、5% 或 6% 的收入增长，加上 20%、21%、22%，甚至可能高达 25% 的营业利润率，那是一个成功的公式。
So, again, if we're talking about 3, 4, or 5, 6% revenue growth combined with 20, 21, 22, maybe as high as 25% operating profit margins, that's a formula for success.
3M 今年到目前为止表现相对成功。股价上涨超过 12.4%，加上股息，投资者对这种风险水平的业务所带来的回报感到满意。
3M is having a relatively successful year so far. It's up over 12.4% plus dividends, so investors are happy with this kind of rate of return with a business with this level of risk.
我将 3M 股票评为买入机会，我上次更新该评级是在 2026 年 4 月 13 日。该股的表现实际上比 2026 年全年要好得多。如果只看自上次我于 4 月 13 日将其评为买入机会以来，当时股价约为每股 148 美元，现已上涨至每股 180 美元。
I ranked 3M stock as a buying opportunity, and I last updated that ranking on April 13th, 2026. The performance of the stock is actually much better than the full year 2026. If you just look at since the last time I ranked it as a buying opportunity on April 13th, it was trading around $148 per share, and it's increased to $180 per share.
因此，自上次我将该股评为买入以来，股价有了显著的改善。这也伴随着企业估值的上升。从远期市盈率来看，目前交易价格为 18.4 倍。这是该股多年来最贵的水平。
So, meaningful share price improvement since the last time I ranked the stock as a buy. So, that's also coincided in an increase in the valuation of the business. When looking at it on a forward price to earnings basis, it's now trading at 18.4. This is the most expensive this stock has been going back several years.
同样，我今天更新了公司的贴现现金流估值，我的计算得出的公允价值为每股 147 美元。
Similarly, I updated my discounted cash flow valuation for the company today, and my calculation arrived at a fair value of $147 per share.
与当前180的市场价格相比，它看起来估值偏高。而且无论我看远期市盈率还是我的贴现现金流估值，得到的答案都是一样的，它们都指向一只略微高估或适度温和高估的股票。
Compared to the current market price of 180, it looks richly valued. And I get the same answer whether I'm looking at the forward price to earnings ratio or whether I'm looking at my discounted cash flow valuation, they all point to a stock that's slightly overvalued or moderately modestly overvalued.
所以，我认为买入3M股票的机会已经结束了，对吧？我认为今年年初股价下跌的时候，是积累3M股票的好时机。现在，我认为这是一个很好的持有机会。如果你持有该股10年、20年，我认为市场价格将比今天高得多。
And so, I think the buying opportunity for 3M stock is over, right? I think the beginning parts of the year, when the share price was dipping, was a great time to accumulate shares of 3M. Now, I think it's a good holding opportunity. If you keep the stock for the next 10, 20 years, I think the market price will be meaningfully higher than where it is today.
然而，如果我在考虑下一笔增量投资，下一只要买入的股票，考虑到市场价格和当前公允价值估计，3M不会出现在我感兴趣买入的股票名单的前半部分。
However, if I'm thinking about that next incremental investment, that next stock to buy, I'm not thinking about 3M anywhere near the top half of my list of stocks that I would be interested in buying compared to the market price and current fair value estimates.
这个频道对 $MMM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。