MRVL 是强力买入,得益于与谷歌的大规模定制硅合作、数据中心收入快速增长(同比增长 75%),以及尽管供应受限但需求旺盛。
逐段跳播
接下来我想仔细看看的公司是Marvell。现在,Marvell刚刚公布了财报,我认为财报很棒。股价下跌了大约10%。市值1900亿美元。年初至今,股价上涨了142%,但从52周高点来看,股价下跌了近30%。
The next company I actually want to take a closer look at is Marvell. Now, Marvell just recently reported earnings, and I thought earnings were great. The stock is down roughly 10%. Market cap of 190 billion. Year-to-date, the stock is up 142% but from its 52-week high, the stock is down nearly 30%.
现在,我想谈论Marvell的原因是Marvell是NVLink Fusion的一部分。他们也有很多内存控制器解决方案。他们与亚马逊和AWS也有很好的合作关系。所以,如果英伟达和亚马逊合作更紧密,亚马逊和Marvell合作更紧密的可能性也会增加。
Now, the reason I want to talk about Marvell is Marvell is part of the NVLink Fusion. They have plenty of memory controller solutions as well. They also have a great partnership with Amazon and AWS. So, if Nvidia and Amazon are working closer together, the probability of Amazon and Marvell working closer together also increases.
所以,这不是一个保证,对吧?这不是一个保证的种子,而且AWS还有其他选择,但这只是让我更加相信,他们取得成功的可能性是真实存在的。
So, it's not a guaranteed, right? It's not a guaranteed seed and there's other players AWS can go with but it just helps me believe that the opportunity for them to be some success is truly, truly there.
我们知道英伟达在Marvell上投资了很多,对吧?20亿美元,并提到这是下一个万亿美元的机会。如果他们与亚马逊合作得很好,英伟达也可以成为那个销售点,那个中间人。看,我们实际上已经与Marvell在NVLink Fusion上合作过。
我知道你们已经在训练平台上与他们合作了。也许你们可以扩展我们正在进行的许多NVLink Fusion合作伙伴关系,并以某种方式与他们合作。
And we know Nvidia invested big in Marvell, right? $2 billion and mentioned this was the next trillion dollar. If they're working really good with Amazon as well, Nvidia can also be kind of that seller point, that middleman. Hey, look, we've actually worked with Marvell on NVLink Fusion. I know you work with them already for the training platform. Maybe you can extend a lot of these NVLinks Fusion partnerships that we're doing and work with them as well, one way or another.
所以,Marvell是我非常非常喜欢的一家公司。
So, Marvell is one that I really, really do enjoy as well.
现在,我认为财报并不算太差,对吧?公司确实将今年的营收指引提高了约5亿美元。这并不疯狂,对于明年,他们又提高了约15亿美元,这一切都依赖于谷歌定制硅片合作关系,而这个关系刚刚变得更大。
Now, earnings I thought weren't that bad, right? The company did increase revenue guidance for this year by about $500 million. Nothing crazy and for next year, they increased it by about 1.5 billion, all riding on the Google custom silicon relationship that just got a lot bigger.
对于那些不熟悉的人来说,英伟达、Marvell和谷歌最近达成了一项重大合作。许多人在看待这些合作的数字时,会试图平均分配,对吧?如果理论上五年内是1000亿美元,我这里给的是一个虚构的数字,市场会说:“好吧,你现在每年额外获得200亿美元。”
但计算领域的故事并不是这样的,对吧?而且我很确定对于大多数企业来说,这更像是一个倒金字塔,一开始很小,然后变得越来越大。我认为用冰淇淋蛋筒来比喻可能更好。它很小,对吧?它开始很小,然后开始变得越来越大。
这就是我们应该期待的。也许一些投资者期望它更像一个矩形,对吧?在这个多年时间框架内均匀分布,但实际上它只会随着时间的推移变得越来越大。而且有时候市场是缺乏耐心的,在我看来。
For those who are not familiar, Nvidia and Marvell and Google recently had a big partnership. And many people when they kind of make do look at the numbers of of these partnerships, they try to divide it evenly, right? If in theory it's a hundred billion dollars in five years, which is I'm giving a fake number here, the market would say, "Okay, you're getting 20 extra billion dollars every year now." But that's not how the story goes with the compute side, right? It's and and pretty sure with most businesses, it's more like an upside down pyramid where it starts off, I think a cone is probably a better ice cream cone. It It small, right? It starts small and then it starts to get bigger and bigger and bigger. And that's what we should expect with this. Maybe some investors were expecting it to be more like a a rectangle, right? Where it's evenly throughout this multi-year time frame, where instead it's just going to get bigger and bigger over time. And sometimes the market is impatient, in my opinion.
数据中心营收上升了,对于下个季度,他们预计环比增长20%,同比增长75%。他们在光学领域非常强大。他们最近收购了Celestica AI,并提到CPO和NPO比一个季度前他们想象的要大得多。所以,这是一个正在扩大的市场。
Data center revenue is up it and for next quarter, they expect it to be up 20% sequentially and 75% year-over-year. They are really big in the optics space. They recently acquired the Celestica AI and they mentioned that CPO and NPO is much larger than they just thought a quarter ago. So, that's a market that's scaling up.
谷歌的合作将是巨大的,他们相信,对吧?他们提到2029财年的硅片将翻倍。他们相信这将远远超过这个数字,对吧?之前指导的是100亿美元以上,而且变得比任何人都能建模的还要大。
Uh the Google partnership is going to be massive and they believe, right? That they mentioned that the silicon in fiscal year 2029 was going to double. They believe that's going to be much greater than that, right? It was previously guided at $10 billion plus and got a large larger than anyone can model.
现在,他们确实在10月6日有一个AI投资者活动,那时我们将获得更多信息。但是,从我们听到的以及从Marvell CEO那里得到的消息来看,我相信这个市场将很快变得疯狂。
Now, they do have a AI investor event on October 6th and that's when we're going to get a lot more information. But, from what we heard and the pieces that we got from Marvell's CEO, I believe this is a market that's going to get insane pretty, pretty quickly.
还有其他一些可能对投资者感兴趣的事情。他谈了一点关于铜和光学。是铜还是光学?Murphy说:“不,不是那样。这将是两者的混合。”我们在许多其他解决方案中也看到了这一点,仅仅因为你拥有更高层级的东西并不意味着较低层级会下降,对吧?两者都有机会,这两个领域都会有巨大的收入。
There were a few other things that kind of might be interesting to investors. He talks a little bit about copper and optics. Is either copper or optics. And Murphy says, "No, that's not the thing. It's going to be a mixture of both." We're seeing it in a lot of other solutions where just because you have a higher tier of something doesn't mean that the lower tier goes down, right? It's you you there's opportunities for both and there's going to be great revenue in both these segments.
最后,Murphy提到,最大的问题之一显然是供应。供应是限制因素,即使需求在加速。
Finally, Murphy mentions that one of the biggest issues is obviously, obviously, supply. Supply is the limiting factor even as demand accelerates.
所以,现在我们有三只股票,对吧?我们有英伟达、亚马逊和Marvell。
So, now we have three stocks, right? We have Nvidia, we have Amazon, we have Marvell.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $MRVL 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。