MRVL受超大规模客户定制芯片需求驱动，具备强劲的看多逻辑，但估值和波动性较高，需要采用定投策略。

All right, stock number four that we wanted to talk about, Marvell. Yeah, so listen, it this is really predicated on the whole what we've been talking about so far. I mean, if if anyone's going to go toe-to-toe with Nvidia, it's going to be these large trillion-dollar companies such as Alphabet, such as Microsoft, such as Amazon, and such as Meta.

Oh, by the way, all four of those companies are customers of Marvell. And so, what does Marvell do? It is a custom silicon provider. Now, this company only has 9 billion in trailing 12-month revenue.

So, and only about 7 billion of that, somewhere in there, is actually in the custom silicon for its big customers such as Amazon and Alphabet, but you know, 7 billion, it doesn't need to take very much.

It doesn't need Tranium or the TPUs to be very successful or to see a whole lot of growth in order for that to be a big driver in its own revenue in that specific the the custom silicon part of its business.

Yeah, and this is one of these things too, we do often think about the the big hyperscalers in these custom chips just kind of going it on their own, but they don't. They do have partners like Marvell, and that's where they come in.

There's there's a number of other players in the ecosystem that are going to be, you know, critical suppliers of certain pieces of technology that they're going to, you know, maybe piece together, but that can be a really valuable place to be.

And then you do get the lock-in, and you're able to ride the growth of some of those companies that are building on top of your technology.

Some people may see customer concentration or revenue concentration among its top customers as a risk. I mean, normally that would be the case, but when you're talking about the hyperscalers, I mean, what other company would you rather hitch your wagon to than one of the most powerful, deepest moat companies in the world?

I mean, that's a good customer to have. So, I wouldn't see that as a huge negative here. I would see that as more positive than negative for Marvell. It is serving these really important customers.

And, you know, already expecting between maybe three and four billion incremental custom silicon revenue over the next couple of years. So, already seeing those tailwinds pick up nicely.

And, hey, if Nvidia was to slip at all, I mean, it could be even more and that would be a meaningful boost for Marvell.

All right, I want to end with a little bit on valuation because you look at the bigger companies that we talked about, Alphabet, trading for about 25 times forward earnings estimates, Amazon trading for about 27 times forward estimates, AMD and Marvell in a very different boat.

Uh AMD trading for about 47 times forward estimates and Marvell at about 43.

Well, maybe I should answer it like this. I mean, I think that you should expect higher beta or higher volatility with AMD and Marvell compared to Amazon and Alphabet. So, if you are looking to make a single investment today, maybe you want the lower beta stocks in Amazon and Alphabet and you're not too worried about a huge pullback because these are huge powerful companies.

If you're more concerned about the volatility, maybe Marvell and AMD are ones that you dollar cost average in, understanding that chances are they will be significantly lower at some point and also significantly higher.

You don't know where the top and the bottom is. So, you're just going to dollar cost average a position.