MRVL 凭借定制 AI 芯片具备强劲增长轨迹,股价有望在年底前达到 325 美元。
逐段跳播
不过,让我们转向第二只我仍然认为前方有巨大增长轨迹的股票,那就是 Marvell Technology,其股票代码是 MRVL。对于 Marvell,我们面对的是一种与 AMD 完全不同的人工智能投资。
AMD 在人工智能计算领域竞争。与此同时,Marvell 越来越多地利用另一样东西:定制 AI 芯片和网络。
However, let's move on to the second stock that I still believe has a tremendous growth trajectory ahead of it, which is Marvel Technology, and its stock symbol is MRVL. With Marvel, we are facing a completely different investment in artificial intelligence compared to AMD.
AMD competes in the field of artificial intelligence computing. Meanwhile, Marvel is increasingly leveraging something else: custom AI chips and networks.
对于 Marvell,我们面对的是一种与 AMD 完全不同的人工智能投资。AMD 在人工智能计算领域竞争。与此同时,Marvell 越来越多地利用另一样东西:定制 AI 芯片和网络。
With Marvel, we are facing a completely different investment in artificial intelligence compared to AMD. AMD competes in the field of artificial intelligence computing . Meanwhile, Marvel is increasingly leveraging something else: custom AI chips and networks.
这意味着什么?Nvidia 基本上销售的是通用型 AI 加速器。它们极其强大且快速,但云巨头正越来越多地转向设计自己的芯片。为什么?因为如果你是 Google、Amazon、Microsoft 或 Meta,每年在人工智能基础设施上花费数百亿美元,你可能想要专门为你的工作负载设计的芯片。这可以带来性能、能效、成本和掌控力的提升。
What does that mean? Well, Nvidia basically sells general-purpose AI accelerators. They are extremely powerful and fast, but cloud giants are increasingly turning to designing their own chips.
Why? Because if you are Google, Amazon, Microsoft, or Meta, and you spend tens of billions of dollars each year on AI infrastructure, you may want chips that are specifically designed for your workloads.
This can lead to improved performance, energy efficiency, cost, and control.
但设计先进半导体极其困难,而这正是像 Marvell 这样的公司,甚至像 Broadcom 这样的公司发挥作用的地方。Marvell 可以被视为人工智能芯片的工程师。
But designing advanced semiconductors is extremely difficult, and that's where companies like Marvel or even companies like Broadcom come in . Marvel can be considered the engineer of artificial intelligence chips.
至于 Marvell,它帮助一些全球最大的科技公司打造自己的汽车。Marvell 提供定制芯片技术,帮助巨头公司设计专门的 AI 加速器和配套基础设施。
As for Marvel, it helps some of the world's largest technology companies build their own cars. Marvel provides custom chip technology that helps giant companies design specialized AI accelerators and supporting infrastructure.
看看 Marvell 最新的季度数据。他们实现了 27.4 亿美元的创纪录收入。这代表同比增长约 40%。但同样,看看数据中心部门。数据中心收入增长了 46%,管理层将本季度的收入结果具体归因于其数据中心产品组合的持续强劲。
公司还宣布调整后每股收益为 0.94 美元,运营现金流超过 6 亿美元。
Look at Marvel's latest quarterly figures. They achieved record revenues of $2.74 billion. This represents an increase of approximately 40% year-on-year. But again, look at the data center sector.
Data center revenues grew by 46%, and management attributed this quarter's revenue results specifically to the continued strength across its data center portfolio . The company also announced adjusted earnings per share of $0.94 and operating cash flows exceeding $600 million.
Marvell 最近扩大了与 Alphabet 的关系。这极其重要。Google 和 Marvell 已达成一项商业协议,涵盖与 Google 的“TPU”生态系统相关的全系列定制半导体产品。
这包括 AI 推理加速器、存储控制器、网络接口控制器、内存接口控制器,甚至近内存计算。这并不是 Marvell 向 Google 出售一个小部件。我们谈论的是 Marvell 有可能触及 Google 人工智能基础设施的不同部分。
Google 对这次合作如此认真,以至于它通过一种保障结构为这段关系发放了与 Marvell 相关的商业激励。
Marvel recently expanded its relationship with Alphabet. This is extremely important . Google and Marvell have entered into a commercial agreement covering a full range of custom semiconductor products related to Google's " TPU" ecosystem .
This includes AI inference accelerators, storage controllers, network interface controllers, memory interface controllers, and even near- memory computing. It's not about Marvel selling Google one small component.
We are talking about the possibility of Marvell touching different parts of Google’s AI infrastructure. Google is so serious about this partnership that it has issued Marvel- related business incentives through a safeguards structure for this relationship.
回到我的“Stock Investor's Edge”网站,看看 Marvell 未来几年的盈利增长。如果这些预测哪怕稍微接近,那么这就是一只价格将会上涨的股票。以下是最近的目标价更新。
最低目标价是 270,在我看来太低了,而三个目标价中最高的是 325。再次强调,这些只是最近三次更新。但 325 这个数字代表较今日股价上涨约 35%。对我来说,该股可能在今年年底前达到这些水平,而且我不认为这是夸大。
Returning to my "Stock Investor's Edge" site, look at Marvel's earnings growth over the next few years. If these predictions are even slightly close, then this is a stock whose price will rise.
Here's a look at the latest target price updates. The lowest target price is 270, which is too low in my estimation, and the highest of the three is 325. Again, these are just the last three updates.
But that number 325 represents an increase of about 35% from today's stock price. For me, the stock could reach those levels by the end of this year , and I don't think that's an exaggeration.
另一方面,Marvell 是巨头公司正在建设的专门人工智能基础设施中的一个战略性投资选项。你押注的是定制芯片、连接、网络、存储、内存接口,以及为巨型企业打造的更专门化的基础设施。
On the other hand, Marvel is a strategic investment option in the specialized artificial intelligence infrastructure being built by giant companies. You are betting on custom chips, connectivity, networks, storage, memory interfaces, and more specialized infrastructure for giant corporations.
我认为你不一定非要二选一。我两只都持有,而且我会通过使用期权合约来增加对它们的持仓。
I don't think you necessarily have to choose one over the other. I own both of them and I will increase my stake in them by using option contracts.
至于 Marvell,我正在关注定制芯片的收入。这些巨头公司的项目演进得有多快?对 Google 来说,这次合作有多大?对数据中心来说,增长能否保持高位?客户集中度,因为赢得巨型企业会创造巨大利润,但也会造成巨大依赖。
当然,还有利润率。定制芯片的经济效益可能与半导体业务的其他部分不同。因此,我不只是想要收入增长。我想要有利润的增长。
As for Marvell, I'm monitoring the revenue from custom chips. How quickly do the programs of these giant companies evolve ? For Google, how big is this partnership? For data centers, can growth remain high?
Customer focus, because winning over huge corporations creates enormous profits, but it also creates enormous dependency. And of course, profit margins. Custom chips can have different economics than other parts of the semiconductor business.
Therefore, I don't just want revenue growth. I want profitable growth.
这就是 AMD 让我感兴趣的地方。这就是 Marvell 让我感兴趣的地方。因为如果我们等到 AMD 获得 AI 加速器的很大份额,或者 Helios 部署完成,或者 Marvell 的定制芯片软件开始产生数百亿美元的收入,并且华尔街完全意识到这个机会,那么我们就不会处于早期阶段了。
This is what interests me about AMD. This is what interests me about Marvell. Because if we wait until AMD acquires a large share of AI accelerators, or Helios is deployed, or Marvell's custom chip software starts generating tens of billions in revenue, and Wall Street becomes fully aware of this opportunity, then we will not be in the early stages.
再次强调,我并不指望 AMD 或 Marvell 会重演那种情况。那将是一个非常高的假设。
Again, I don't expect AMD or Marvell to repeat that. That would be a very high assumption.
Marvell 让我能够接触到那些越来越多地打造自己定制 AI 芯片的云巨头。不同的业务、不同的风险、不同的机会,但两者都可能受益于同一个巨大的根本性趋势:建设人工智能基础设施。
我并不是说它们会成为下一个 Nvidia。我想说的是,Nvidia 已经教会了我们应该关注什么:数据中心收入的巨大增长、利润的快速增长、向一个可瞄准市场的扩张、巨额的客户承诺,以及直接站在一轮巨大资本支出周期前沿的产品。
这些就是我所寻找的特征,而目前,AMD 和 Marvell 是两家符合其中许多标准的公司。
Marvell gives me exposure to cloud giants that are increasingly building their own custom AI chips. Different businesses, different risks , different opportunities, but both could benefit from the same massive, fundamental trend: building AI infrastructure.
I'm not saying they're the next Nvidia. I would say that Nvidia has taught us what to look for: massive growth in data center revenues, rapid profit growth, expansion into a targetable market , huge customer commitments, and products that stand directly in front of a massive capital expenditure cycle.
These are the characteristics I'm looking for, and currently, AMD and Marvell are two companies that meet many of these criteria.
观察点
这个频道对 $MRVL 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。