MSFT的AI收入主要来自OpenAI和Anthropic；相对于超过2600亿美元的资本支出，MSFT AI产品的有机需求疲软。
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Microsoft 在资本支出上花费数十亿美元，这能带来多少收益？
How much does Microsoft? They're spending billions of dollars on capex. How much does this make?
我认为 Microsoft 的运营支出约为 1500 亿美元。Microsoft、Google、Amazon 和 Meta 提高了价格，并改变了广告拍卖机制。
I think Microsoft's OPEX is like 150 billion Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, cranked up prices, changed ad auction stuff.
UBS、Barclays 和 Wells Fargo 等分析师的预期显示，Google、Amazon 和 Microsoft 的云收入中有 4400 亿美元来自 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等需要不断融资的无利可图的初创公司。
Analyst expectations uh from like UBS, Barkclays and uh Wells Fargo have $440 billion of cloud revenue across Google, Amazon and Microsoft coming just from open air and anthropic to unprofitable startups who need to constantly raise money
根据 Bloomberg 报道，在 2026 财年，Microsoft 从 AI 领域获得约 343.3 亿美元收入，其中 241 亿美元来自 OpenAI。这意味着 Microsoft 的软件和 GPU 租赁服务仅为个位数十亿美元级的业务，而它们在此方面的资本支出超过 2600 亿美元。
in fiscal year 26 Microsoft they made corn to Bloomberg about $ 34.33 billion on AI $24.1 billion of that is open AI which means that open uh Microsoft software and GPU rental services are singledigit billion dollar businesses and they have 260 plus billion in capex in this.
我关于 Microsoft AI 收入的观点正是基于此。刚结束的 2026 财年，AI 收入为 343.3 亿美元，其中 241 亿美元来自 OpenAI。这意味着除了向其大型关联方销售外，向其他人销售 GPU 仅是一门个位数十亿美元的业务。
But I just the point I made about Microsoft's AI revenue is where this comes in. So fiscal 26 which just ended $ 34.33 billion of AI revenue $24.1 billion of that is open AI that means that selling GPUs to anyone else other than their large fail son is a singledigit billion business
Microsoft 是软件销售的顶级掠食者，拥有数十万经销商和数万名销售人员，却无法为 Copilot 及相关产品凑齐超过个位数十亿美元的销售收入。
it's Microsoft is the apex predator of software sales they have hundreds of thousands of resellers they have tens of thousands of salespeople and they can't scrape together more than singledigit billion dollars of sales for co-pilot and all the stuff
Co-pilot及相关产品带来了数十亿美元的销售收入，这建立在GitHub Copilot这一他们为数不多的成功AI产品现已转向基于Token的计费模式这一事实之上。此前用户每月支付40美元即可消耗价值5,000美元的Token，而现在改为基于用量的计费后，这项业务已经终结。
billion dollars of sales for co-pilot and all the stuff and this is on top of the fact that GitHub copilot But one of their only successful AI products has now gone tokenbased billing, which means people were before able to spend 40 bucks a month, spend $5,000 of tokens. Now the token based billing, >> now it's usage gone. That business is dead.
此外，GitHub Copilot 是其少数成功的 AI 产品之一，现已转向基于 Token 的计费模式。此前用户每月支付 40 美元即可消耗价值 5000 美元的 Token，现在改为按用量计费，导致该业务模式失效。这项业务已经死了。
and this is on top of the fact that GitHub copilot But one of their only successful AI products has now gone tokenbased billing, which means people were before able to spend 40 bucks a month, spend $5,000 of tokens. Now the token based billing, now it's usage gone. That business is dead.
除此之外，高达 2600 亿美元的资本支出，以及所有财富 500 强客户的需求，无论具体是多少，每年仅贡献约 100 亿美元的收入。
And on top of all of that, wow, $260 billion in capex and all of that Fortune 500 demand drew on like whatever it may be is single is what $10 billion a year.
Adela可能会说再给几年时间。但我为什么要道歉呢？重点在于，我们已经给了他们几年时间，而这已经是他们能拿出的最好成绩了。
Adela would say, G, give us a couple of years. Why do I have to give sorry I'm but the point is is like we've given him a few years and this is the best he's got for us.
我们现在有一个问题：OpenAI现在是一项负债。他们的体量足够大，以至于微软实际上必须——我想微软持有他们大约27%的股份——这实际上是一个沉重的负担。
We have a li open AI is a liability now like that's they are material enough that Microsoft actually has to I think what's like 27% they own of them it's actually a deeply low bearing
他们必须将自身的财务状况合并到他们自己的损益表中。另一件事是，只有当OpenAI能够继续筹集资金时，微软才能获得报酬。
they have to consolidate their financials onto their their own income statement. The other thing is is Microsoft's only getting paid if OpenAI can keep raising money.
因此，Microsoft 的增长依赖于 OpenAI 和现在的 Anthropic 的支出。除此之外，他们没有显著的需求。这甚至不是观点，而是一篇 Bloomberg 文章明确指出的事实。
So, Microsoft's growth is dependent on OpenAI and now anthropic spending. Outside of that, they don't have significant demand. This isn't even an opinion. This is a Bloomberg article that spelled this out.
这甚至不是一种观点。这是一篇彭博社的文章明确指出的内容。Microsoft 并没有来自其自身客户对其原生 AI 产品的需求，达到足以证明其合理性的规模。我不是说完全没有需求，他们确实找到了一些，但这还是在他们骚扰客户并进行大规模推销之后才有的结果。
This isn't even an opinion. This is a Bloomberg article that spelled this out. Microsoft doesn't have the demand for its own AI native products from its own customers at the scale that they would need to justify like I'm not saying there's zero demand they have found but this is also after them harassing their customers and massive sale
我必须明确一点，微软的销售团队……只有一家公司比他们更让人讨厌，那就是Oracle，而Oracle是另一个完全不同的问题。
I must be clear Microsoft sales teams are there's only one level higher of more annoying and that's Oracle and Oracle is a whole other problem
如果 OpenAI 占其收入的 30%，我或许还能接受这种下滑。但 OpenAI 占其 AI 收入的 70% 是存在性危机。他们有 2500 亿美元的 Azure 支出承诺用于此，数额巨大。
if this was a case where 30% of their revenue was open AI I would be like all right maybe my kind of falling But 70% of their AI revenue being open AI is existentially bad. They have $250 billion of Azure spend committed to that's so much that's
他们有2500亿美元的Azure支出承诺，这个数字非常大。我记得微软上个财年的总营收大概是3310亿美元。但现在他们解除了与OpenAI的独家协议，这使得情况变得更糟，因为现在OpenAI需要在八年内向Amazon花费1380亿美元，向Cabus花费200亿美元，向CoreWeave花费224亿美元。我们与Oracle有超过3000亿美元的合同。
They have $250 billion of Azure spend committed to that's so much that's Microsoft was uh 331 billion I think last fiscal year but now they've divorced themselves from the exclusivity agreement with open AAI which only makes it worse because now OpenAI needs to spend 138 billion over eight years with Amazon 20 billion with Cabus 22.4 4 billion with core. We have 300 billion plus with Oracle.
我要澄清的是，我在2024年错了。为什么？因为我太天真了。我以为市场是个理性的地方。我认为Microsoft、Google、Amazon和Meta不会毫无理由地花费数千亿美元。
To be clear, I was wrong back in 2024. And why? Cuz I was naive. I was like, the market's a sensible place. Microsoft and Google, Amazon, Meta wouldn't spend hundreds of billions of dollars for no goddamn reason.
到目前为止，除了Microsoft之外，它们都不得不开始承担债务。
Other than Microsoft at this point, they're all having to take on debt.
这并不能改变一个非常明显的事实，即Microsoft、Google、Meta和Amazon的整体增长正在放缓。否则，他们绝不会采取这些行动。他们正在减速。而且，Microsoft 2026财年收入的7%来自OpenAI。
It doesn't fix the fact that it's very clear that Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon, their overall growth is slowing. Otherwise, they would have never done this. They are slowing down. and m 7% of Microsoft's fiscal year 26 revenue was from OpenAI.
基于Anthropic和OpenAI的支出，他们的云收入在本季度加速增长。
Their cloud revenues are accelerating this quarter based on anthropic and OpenAI spend.
我提到Meta并不是为了争论，你会注意到Meta并没有像火箭一样增长。Oracle做到了，OpenAI也做到了，Microsoft也做到了。
The reason I brought up meta was not not to be argumentative is you'll notice that Meta didn't grow like gang busters. Oracle did, open AI, um Microsoft did.
我关于云增长的观点是，Amazon、Google和Microsoft的大部分增长——尽管Amazon的广告业务出奇地好——来自于云，而这些增长的大部分来自于Anthropic和OpenAI。
如果没有这些，他们的增长故事就结束了，我实际上认为最终他们会……
the point I'm making around cloud growth, which is most of the growth for Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, though Amazon has a surprisingly good ad business comes from cloud and most of that growth comes from anthropic and open AI. Without that, their growth story ends and they I actually think will eventually
还有Microsoft，
And Microsoft,
这就是为什么Microsoft在过去几年里进行了多次涨价。Google和Meta也是如此。
that's why Microsoft has done multiple price increases the last few years. Same with Google, Meta.
GitHub Copilot有两百万客户，在今年6月1日，Microsoft直接撤掉了他们的地毯（釜底抽薪）。对客户这样做简直是疯狂的。
GitHub Copilot had two million customers and on June 1st of this year, Microsoft just went pulled the rug out from under them. That is an insane thing to do to customers.
Amazon、Google、也许还有Microsoft，以及肯定包括Meta，都将不得不借入大量债务。
Amazon, Google, maybe Microsoft, definitely Meta are going to have to take out a bunch of debt.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。