微软是一家高质量的“名人堂”级企业，长期买入价值良好，但当前价格限制了进一步加仓。
逐段跳播
微软已启动一项重大新举措，将6000名工程师直接派驻到客户现场，以交付可衡量的业务成果。此外，管理团队强调，其Azour AI业务在短短3个多月内新增了500亿美元的积压订单。
Microsoft has launched a major new initiative embedding 6,000 engineers directly with customers to deliver measurable business outcomes. Additionally, the management team highlighted that its Azour AI business added $50 billion in backlog in just over 3 months.
但这一切是否使微软股票成为买入机会？在整个颠覆性的人工智能技术繁荣期间，微软持续实现营收增长。在最近结束的季度中，其营收增长接近20%。多年来，其营收已从2017年的大约750亿美元增长至最近12个月期间的超过3320亿美元。
But does all of this make Microsoft stock a buying opportunity? Throughout this disruptive AI technological boom, Microsoft has delivered continued revenue growth. In the most recently completed quarter, its revenue growth approached 20%. Over the many years, its revenue has grown from roughly $75 billion in 2017 to over 332 billion in the most recent trailing 12-month period.
其各业务部门持续实现显著增长，而人工智能领域的投资进一步增强了这一增长。
It continues to generate significant growth throughout its business segments and that growth is enhanced with the investments in artificial intelligence.
微软管理团队表示，人工智能计算能力的供需动态仍然紧张。这意味着公司建设得越多，产生的营收就越多，因为客户正在排队等待消费这些服务。
Microsoft's management team said that the supply demand dynamics for computing for artificial intelligence remains constrained. That means the more the company builds, the more revenue it will generate because customers are waiting in line to consume those services.
该业务的盈利能力不断提升，经营现金流与销售额之比也在不断提高。在最近12个月期间，该比率达到55%，创下公司过去十年乃至更长时间以来的历史新高。
The business is generating increasing profitability and increasing cash flow from operations to sales. In the most recent trailing 12-month period at 55%, this is record highs for the company over the previous decade and more.
这也是微软如此积极地投入建设其人工智能能力的原因之一。投资者担心，这些数据中心的前期投资规模过大，难以抵消这些建设带来的回报。
This is one of the reasons why Microsoft is spending so aggressively to build out its AI capabilities. Investors are concerned that the upfront investments in these data centers are too large to offset the returning investments from those buildouts.
然而，微软管理团队表示，投入资本回报率非常有效，且情况依然稳健。
However, Microsoft's management team has said that the return on invested capital is very effective and the situation remains robust.
管理团队认为有效的情况与市场认为有效的情况之间存在错位。从历史上看，微软在资本配置方面相对擅长。过去十年，其投入资本回报率平均约为20%，高于公司的加权平均资本成本。
There is a mismatch between what the management team believes to be effective and what the market believes to be effective. Historically, Microsoft has been relatively good at allocating capital. The return on invested capital has averaged around 20% over the previous decade. And that's above the company's weighted average cost of capital.
当你像微软这样投入数千亿美元的大规模资金时，要产生足够的投入资本回报率就更加困难。微软已经证明，尤其是在首席执行官Satiana Dela的领导下，它是一个有效的资本配置者。
And when you're investing in large quantities like Microsoft in the hundreds of billions of dollars, it's more difficult to generate sufficient returns on invested capital. Microsoft has proved, especially under the leadership of CEO Satiana Dela, that it is an effective allocator of capital.
以远期市盈率衡量，微软的估值仍相对具有吸引力，为21.5倍。根据这一估值指标，该水平大约处于自2024年以来该股交易区间的中部。
Microsoft's valuation remains relatively attractive when measuring on a forward price to earnings basis at 21.5. It's about the middle of where the stock has traded for according to this valuation metric going back to 2024.
围绕微软股票的看法一直在变化。几年前，由于与Open AI的合作以及从Open AI获得的大量积压订单，投资者对该公司的情绪一度高涨。而时至今日，这些情绪已不那么热烈，其与Open AI的关系现在更多是逆风而非顺风。
There's been shifting opinion surrounding Microsoft stock. Investor sentiment surrounding this company was euphoric a couple of years ago with its connection with Open AI and the large backlogs it was getting from Open AI. And fast forward to today, those feelings are less enthusiastic now with its relationship to Open AI being more of a headwind than a tailwind.
因此，与2024年初相比，现在的估值处于较低区间。当时其远期市盈率接近32倍。同样，我计算了该公司的公允价值估计，约为每股451美元。与当前市场价格57美元相比，我认为这处于合理估值的外围。
我认为，使用贴现现金流方法衡量时，它正接近略微高估。
So the valuation now is on the lower end of where it's been compared to earlier in 2024. It was trading at a forward price to earnings close to 32. Similarly, I calculated a fair value estimate for the company which came to about $451 per share. Compared to the current market price of $57, I would say it's on the outer stretches of what's fairly valued. I would say it's approaching a slight overvaluation when measuring using a discounted cash flow approach.
使用远期市盈率方法衡量时，它看起来略微低估。因此，根据我用于评估的估值指标不同，我得到的是一个混合的图景。因此，回答我在标题中提出的问题：微软股票看起来是买入机会吗？我认为是的。
还要记住，这是一家名人堂级别的企业。所以，即使你能以合理的价格获得这样一家名人堂级别的企业，对于长期投资来说也是一笔好交易。
When measuring using the forward price to earnings approach, it looks slightly undervalued. So, I'm getting a mixed picture here depending on which valuation metric I'm utilizing to make this evaluation. So to answer the question I posed in the headline, does Microsoft stock look like a buying opportunity? I would say so. Still remember this is a Hall of Fame business. So, even if you can get one of these Hall of Fame businesses at a fair price, it's a good deal for long-term investment.
微软仍处于我所说的合理价格区间内。按折现现金流衡量，它正触及该区间的上限，但按远期市盈率衡量，它处于该区间的下限。
Microsoft is still in the range of where I would call fair price. It is hitting the upper bound of that range when measuring on a discounted cash flow basis, but it's on the lower bound of that range when measuring on a forward price to earnings basis.
今年早些时候我买入了微软股票。记得在2026年首批财报发布后的第二天，股价暴跌了12%至13%。几天后我买入了微软股票。
I bought Microsoft stock earlier this year. remember when the stock price crashed by 12 13% on the day after one of its first earnings reports of 2026. A few days after that is when I bought Microsoft stock.
我没有兴趣卖出微软股票，但也不打算在当前市场水平上增加持仓。
I'm not interested in selling my Microsoft stock, but I'm also not interested in adding any more to my position at these market
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。