MSFT 是一只高质量的“名人堂”级股票，估值指标处于合理至低估水平，但对于新增资金配置而言，其上行空间不及 PLTR。
逐段跳播
Palanteer 创造的营收只占 Microsoft 整体营收的极小一部分，但已经实现了利润率，取决于你看的是哪个指标，比 Microsoft 还要好。
Palanteer is generating a tiny fraction of the overall revenues that Microsoft is generating, but is already earning a profit margin, depending on the metric you look at, better than Microsoft.
这是否意味着，在当前市场价格下，Palunteer 的股票比 Microsoft 的股票是更好的买入机会？Microsoft 在过去 12 个月期间创造了 3320 亿美元的营收。
Palunteer 只占其中极小极小的一部分，为 61.56 亿美元。
Does that make Palunteer stock a better buying opportunity than Microsoft stock at current market prices? Microsoft generated $332 billion in revenue over the trailing 12-month period.
Palunteer a tiny tiny fraction of that at 6.156 billion.
如果我们聚焦于最近 12 个月期间，Palunteer 创造的营收增速是 Microsoft 营收增速的三倍以上。
If we were to zoom in to the most recent 12-month period, Palunteer generated revenue growth that was over three times the rate of revenue growth of Microsoft.
Palunteer 的业务增长速度远快于 Microsoft 的业务增长速度，而且 Palunteer 的增速还在加快。
Palunteer is growing its business much more quickly than Microsoft is growing its business and the rate of increase is improving for Palunteer.
所以 Palunteer 与 Microsoft 之间增速的差距正朝着有利于 Palunteer 的方向发展。
So that difference between the growth rates of Palunteer and Microsoft is working in Palunteer's favor.
尽管规模无疑存在显著差异，Palanteer 的 60 亿大约相当于 Microsoft 3310 亿营收的 2%。
Although the scale is unarguably significantly different, Palanteer's six billion is about 2% that of Microsoft 331 billion in revenue.
话虽如此，Palanteer 的利润率在某些情况下甚至更好，或者已经接近 Microsoft，即便它的规模小得多。
That being said, Palanteer's profit margins in some cases are even better or approaching that of Microsoft even at its much smaller scale.
而 Microsoft 的营业利润率一直徘徊在 40% 到 50% 之间，尽管公司规模极其庞大，却没有增长多少。
While Microsoft's operating profit margin has hovered between 40 and 50% while not increasing by all that much despite the company's very massive scale.
别误会我的意思，47% 的营业利润率非常出色。就营业盈利能力而言，它几乎属于最顶尖之列。
Now, don't get me wrong, an operating profit margin of 47% is excellent. It's almost among the best of the best in terms of operating profitability.
所以，Microsoft 的营业利润率在 40% 多，就营业盈利能力而言几乎属于最顶尖之列。所以，Palanteer 还没有维持住 Microsoft 那样的营业盈利水平。它还没有证明自己能在 5 年或 10 年的时间跨度内做到这一点，这对投资者来说是需要考虑的重要一点。
So, Microsoft with an operating profit margin in the mid-40s is almost among the best of the best in terms of operating profitability. So, Palanteer hasn't sustained the level of operating profitability that Microsoft has.
It hasn't yet proven that it can do this over a 5year stretch or a 10-year stretch, which is important for investors to consider.
所以我提到过，在某些指标上 Palunteer 已经超过 Microsoft，其中一个指标就是投入资本回报率，过去 5 年 Palunteer 在这一指标上持续改善，而 Microsoft 则一直呈下降趋势。
So I mentioned in some metrics Palunteer is already exceeding Microsoft and one of those metrics is the return on invested capital where Palunteer has continued improving on this metric over the previous 5 years whereas Microsoft has been trending downward.
Microsoft 以在人工智能数据中心上投入数千亿美元而闻名。这提振了公司的营收。它提振了公司的绝对利润水平，同时却降低了公司的投入资本回报率，因为如此多的资本被投入到这项业务中。
Microsoft is famously investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers for artificial intelligence. That's boosting the company's revenue. It's boosting the company's absolute level of profits while reducing the company's returns on invested capital because so much capital is being put into the business.
其ROIC已从2022年的约33%下降至过去12个月期间的26%。而Microsoft和Palanteer则都轻松高于这些门槛。就Microsoft而言，其ROIC与WACC之比接近2:1。
Its ROIC has dropped from around 33% in 2022 to 26% over the trailing 12-month period. And for Microsoft and Palanteer, they are comfortably above those thresholds. For Microsoft, its ROIC to WACC ratio is nearly 2:1.
因此，无论我们是单独看这一指标，还是将其与WACC进行比较，按照这一指标，Palunteer的盈利能力都优于Microsoft。
So regardless if we look at it individually or compared to the WACC, Palunteer's profitability according to this metric is better than that of Microsoft.
那么现在让我们来看估值，不出所料，Palunteer的估值比Microsoft更贵。我提到过，Palunteer的收入增速大约是Microsoft的三倍。其利润率已经超过Microsoft。
相比Microsoft，它有更大的上行空间。因此，通常你会预期这样一家企业以溢价交易。
So now let's look at valuation and unsurprisingly Palunteer is trading at a more expensive valuation than Microsoft. I mentioned Palunteer is growing its revenue at roughly three times the rate of Microsoft.
Its profit margins are already exceeding Microsoft. it has bigger upside compared to Microsoft. And so typically you would expect to see a business trading at a premium.
我不知道它是否配得上相对Microsoft这么高的溢价。它的远期市盈率为73，而Microsoft的远期市盈率为21。因此，按远期市盈率衡量，它的估值是Microsoft的三倍多。
I don't know if it deserves this much of a premium over Microsoft. It's trading at a forward PE of 73 whereas Microsoft is trading at a forward PE of 21. So it's trading at more than 3x the value of Microsoft when measuring on a forward price to earnings basis.
同样地，我为Microsoft计算了一个公允价值。作为这一计算的一部分，我计算了加权平均资本成本，Microsoft为10%。它是一家风险较低的企业。正如你可以想见的，这就是加权平均资本成本。
对于一家风险较低的企业，折现率更低，为10%。而正如我之前提到的，26%的ROIC，ROIC与WACC之比接近2比1，更接近2.5比1。
Similarly, I calculated a fair value for Microsoft. As part of this calculation, I computed a weighted average cost of capital which came to 10% for Microsoft. It's a lower risk business.
As you would imagine, it's weighted average cost of capital. The discount rate is lower for a lower risk business at 10%. And as I mentioned earlier, 26% ROIC, a nearly two closer to 2 and a half to one ROIC to WACC ratio.
话虽如此，我计算出的Microsoft公允价值为440美元，而当前市场价格为492美元。按这一指标衡量，Microsoft股票看起来略微高估。当然，这落在我判断一只股票是定价合理、高估还是低估时所采用的安全边际5%至10%之内。
Microsoft几乎就在那个10%区间之内，只是略微超出。
That said, I calculated a fair value for Microsoft at $440 compared to the current market price of $492. Microsoft stock looks slightly overvalued measuring using this metric. Of course, this is within my margin of safety of 5 to 10% I like to incorporate when making a determination whether a stock is fairly priced, overpriced, or underpriced.
Microsoft is almost in just barely outside of that 10% range there.
所以，我会说，我认为按DCF模型衡量，Microsoft股票看起来估值合理；而按远期市盈率倍数来看，我会认为Microsoft股票看起来被低估了。
So, I would say I would argue Microsoft stock looks fairly valued using a DCF model and I would argue Microsoft stock looks undervalued when looking at the forward PE multiple.
第一，它们都是高质量的公司。我会说，Microsoft是一家名人堂级别的企业。
Number one, they're both highquality companies. Microsoft, I would argue, is a Hall of Fame business.
Microsoft在我的名人堂排名中赢得了一席之地。我实际上同时持有Palunteer和Microsoft。所以，与其只选其中一只，我两只都选了。我的投资组合中两只都持有。
Microsoft has earned a spot in my Hall of Fame rankings. I actually own Palunteer and Microsoft. So rather than picking only one of them, I picked both of them. I own both of them in my portfolio.
但如果今天我必须加仓，并且必须在这两个持仓中选择一个加仓，我会先加仓Palunteer，然后才会加仓Microsoft。
But if I had to add to my positions today and I had to pick between which one of the positions I would add to, I would add to my position in Palunteer before I would add to my position in Microsoft.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。