$MSFT

MSFT 具备强劲增长潜力,预计将突破 510 并上探 518-535,但在 490-494 下方不买入。

看涨他说的是几周内
《MSFT Upgrade Points to Margin Strength, Bullish AI Profit Path》
Schwab Network发布 2026-09-23 · 12 段内容
00:02/ 打开原视频

逐段跳播

12 段内容
0:024:08

我们来看一下微软的年度走势图。其股价同比下跌了2%,但较6月底的低点上涨了40%。我们记得此前曾出现大幅下跌,但随着包括微软在内的投资者对软件板块的兴趣增强,股价已从那些低位回升。公司盈利表现良好,其股票今晨还获得了正面评级。

Let's focus on Microsoft 's annual chart . Its shares have fallen 2% year-on-year, but are up 40% from their lows in late June. We recall that we saw a significant decline, but it recovered from those low levels as investors, including Microsoft, became more interested in the software sector .

The company made good profits, and its shares received a positive recommendation this morning.

Sam,我想说微软的表现仍然略胜一筹。这在很大程度上归因于公司今天从分析师群体获得的强烈关注,Stifel将其评级从“中性”上调至“买入”,并将目标价从530美元上调至575美元。

Sam, I would say that Microsoft's performance is still slightly superior. Much of that is due to the strong interest the company is receiving from the analyst community today, with Stifel upgrading the stock from "neutral" to "buy" and raising its price target from $530 to $575.

公司在声明中表示,对微软维持15%至17%营收增长的能力越来越有信心,依据是开源人工智能模型的快速发展,以及一项不一定依附于任何主要语言模型供应商的战略。

In its statement, the company indicates its growing confidence in Microsoft’s ability to maintain revenue growth of between 15% and 17%, based on rapid developments in open-source artificial intelligence models and a strategy that is not necessarily tied to any major provider of language models.

声明还强调了微软在成本管理上的严格纪律,称高效的运营费用将有助于维持稳定的利润率,而强劲的现金流则降低了对任何外部融资的需求。

It also highlights Microsoft’s strong discipline in cost management, asserting that efficient operating expenses will help maintain stable profit margins, while strong cash flow reduces the need for any external financing.

这位分析师还指出,他此前对毛利率的一些担忧有所缓解,因为Azure效率的提升、4月合同审查后部分开源AI相关付款的到期、资本支出的合理化,以及对运营费用的严格控制,预计将支撑当前的利润率水平。

The analyst also points to a relaxation of some of his previous concerns about gross margins, as improved Azure efficiency, the expiration of some open-source AI-related payments following the April contract review , rationalization of capital spending, and tight control of operating expenses are expected to support current margin levels.

简而言之,Steffel认为微软在人工智能领域的战略、云计算效率的提升以及财务实力,将在未来支撑其盈利能力和可持续增长。

In short, Steffel believes that Microsoft’s strategy in artificial intelligence, improved cloud computing efficiency , and financial strength will support profitability and sustainable growth in the future.

我们知道,该股在财报公布后大幅反弹,表现惊人,并在很大程度上守住了这些涨幅。是的,这是对的。正如我提到的,它的表现不像今天其他股票那么糟糕,并凭借此前的涨幅为标普500指数做出了贡献,但仍面临轻微压力。

We know that the stock performed amazingly after its great recovery following the earnings announcement, and has largely maintained these gains . Yes, this is correct. As I mentioned, its performance was not as bad as the rest of the stocks today, and it contributed to the S&P 500 index with its previous gains, but under slight pressure.

是的,该股的增长潜力令我印象深刻。他们给它施加了很大压力,但你知道,它已经在509至515的区间内站稳,而我最关注的几个价位是497,或者最低494。

Yes, I am impressed by the stock's potential for growth. They have put a lot of pressure on them, but, you know, they have settled in a range between 509 and 515, and the most notable prices I am watching here are 497 , or 494 as a minimum.

因此,如果微软股价继续升破这些水平,我对微软10月9日到期、行权价512、价格在750或更低的看涨期权非常看好。确实,风险很高,达到约75%,但我预计股价将升至518附近,这将使这些合约接近100%。

我预计会从这个水平突破,并最好强劲上涨至535。

Therefore, if Microsoft shares continue to rise above these levels, I am very impressed with Microsoft’s October 9 half-term buy options at 512 at 750 or lower. It is true that the risk is high, reaching about 75%, but I expect the stock to rise to around 518 , which will make these contracts close to 100%.

I would expect a breakout from this level and a strong rise towards 535 at best .

这一区间存在价格缺口,这正是我们在股票的上涨轨迹中看到的情况,这些股票瞄准高位,并能在短时间内实现目标。如你所知,在微软这类跨境交易中,它们之间的协同效应正在增强。

There is a price gap in this range, and this is what we have seen in the upward trajectories of stocks, where these stocks targeted high levels and were able to achieve them in a short period of time .

As you know, with this type of cross-border trading with Microsoft, the synergy between them is increasing.

因此,如果价格确实跌破490或494水平,我们就不会想买入。如果价格突破510并开始向518附近上涨,市场将完全打开。

Therefore, certainly if the price drops below the 490 or 494 level, we will not want to buy. If the price breaks above 510 and starts rising towards approximately the 518 level, the market will be wide open .

微软可能需要一个催化剂,但总体而言,如你所知,它们正在遵循所谓的“最大涨幅”,在我看来,这是一个积极的长期指标,尤其是如果市场将迎来复苏的话。

Microsoft may need a catalyst, but overall, as you know, they are following what is called " maximum rise ," and in my opinion, this is a positive long-term indicator, especially if the market is going to see a recovery.

观察点

价格相对关键技术水平位的走势
突破510并升向518(看涨),或跌破490/494(看跌/不买入)
近期图表
突破510支持看涨突破逻辑;跌破490则削弱该逻辑

这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-09-23看涨本条
我们来看一下微软的年度走势图。其股价同比下跌了2%,但较6月底的低点上涨了40%。
2026-09-22
我认为,Microsoft 仍是整个人工智能生态系统中一个关键要素。
原话 00:30 ›
看完整历史 ›
美股听风