若不依赖持续的自由现金流生成，Microsoft缺乏足够的即时流动性来覆盖其年度义务。
逐段跳播
就像我们刚才说的，Microsoft 现在没有足够的钱来支付它的账单，这话说出来简直离谱。光是 Microsoft 一家就占了整个股市大约 4.2%，老兄。这太疯狂了。而且他们今年真的是现金用光了。
like we were saying, Microsoft doesn't have enough money to pay its bills right now, which is like wild to say. Microsoft alone makes up about 4.2% of the entire stock, dude. That's crazy.
And they're they're literally out of cash for the year.
Moody's 昨晚的报告显示，Amazon、Microsoft、Google、Oracle 以未来释放的形式存在高达 2.8 万亿的表外承诺，这个数字令人瞠目。相比 2023 年增长了八倍。
Moody's report last night indicated an eyepopping 2.8 trillion of offbalance sheet commitments uh for Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle in the form of future releases. That's an eight-fold jump from 2023.
Microsoft 占整个美国股市的百分比是多少？就问 Satya Nadella，Satya Nadella，好先生，你的公司市值相比整个美国股市是多少？各位，答案是 4.1% 到 4.6%。
约占整个 S&P 500 的 7%。大约是那个互联网泡沫例子的的一半，仅仅一家公司。
what percentage of the entire US stock market is Microsoft? Just Satya Nadella, Satya Nadella, good sir, how much is your company worth compared to the entire US stock market? Folks, the answer is 4.1 to 4.6%.
Represents about 7% of the entire S&P 500. About half of that internet bubble example, just one company.
你知道谁没有很多钱吗？Microsoft。现在我知道我是在抨击一只有持仓的股票。我的天。但这就是我在这个频道做的事。我倾向于直说心里话，即使这对我的持仓不利。但没错，我对 Microsoft 有持仓，我心想，天哪，老兄，这里变得有点紧张了。
怎么回事，我是说，看看这个。我有 958 亿美元的账单，768 亿美元的现金和短期投资。这个数字比这个数字小。这可不妙。不过，公平地说，他们有 144 亿美元的自由现金流。抱歉，那是季度还是全年的？
让我看看。自由现金流。哦，那是全年的。是吗？不，那是季度的。好，好，好，好，好。好，那是厂房物业。对。对，那是季度的。好，公平地说，这些账单一年内到期，而他们每季度确实有 144 亿美元的自由现金流。
所以，这不错。但是，你知道，这不是最干净的船。他们现在从技术上讲仍然没有足够的现金来支付今年所有的账单。所以，他们必须依赖自由现金流，这意味着他们可以用来实际投资、偿还债务或回购股票的钱就更少了。值得想一想。
You know who doesn't have lots of money? Microsoft. And now I know I'm bagging on a stock I have exposure to. My goodness. But that's what I do on this channel. I have a tendency of just speaking my mind, even if that's bad for the book.
But yeah, I've got exposure to Microsoft and I'm like, "Oh man, dude, this is getting a little tighter here. What's going I mean, look at this. I got $95.8 billion in bills, $76.8 billion of cash in short-term investments.
This number is smaller than this number. That is not good. Now, in fairness, they've got $14.4 billion of uh free cash flow. Sorry, was that in the quarter or the year? Let me look.
Free cash flow. Oh, that was for the year. Is it? No, it was for the quarter. Okay, good, good, good, good, good. Okay, that is plant property. Yeah. Yeah, it was for the quarter.
Okay, in fairness, these bills are due in a year and they do have 14.4 billion of free cash flow per quarter. So, that's good. But, you know, it's not the cleanest ship. They still technically right now do not have enough cash to pay all their bills this year.
So, they have to rely on free cash flow, which means it's less money that they can turn around and actually invest or use to pay down debt or buy back stocks. Something to think about.
这个频道对 $MSFT 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。