MSG估值合理；NAV折价已收窄至约20%，通过折价重新扩大获得进一步上行空间的可能性不大。
逐段跳播
我可以谈谈MSG。我会尽量简短。我觉得有一些有趣的事情可以说，但也不是太多。这是我昨天整理的一张图表。对于不熟悉麦迪逊广场花园体育的人来说，我的看法是，这很酷。这是个人投资者能够买入主要职业体育特许经营权所有权的少数方式之一，因为它是公开交易的控股公司，主要资产是纽约尼克斯队，他们刚刚赢得了NBA总冠军，还有纽约游骑兵队，他们在NHL中是一支历史悠久的球队。
Uh, I could do MSG. I'm I I'll try to keep it I'll try to keep it brief. Um, I think there's some interesting things to say. Uh, but it's not too too much. So, uh, this was a chart that I I I actually put together uh yesterday. And so, the way I think about for anybody not familiar with Madison Square Garden Sports, um, it's pretty cool. It's uh one of the few ways that you can um buy ownership into a major professional sports franchise as an individual investor because uh it's publicly traded and it's a holding company and the primary assets are the New York Knicks uh who who just won uh the NBA title uh and then uh the New York Rangers who are you know a pretty historic franchise uh in in the NHL.
所以，在北美四大主要体育联盟中的两个联盟中，有两支著名的球队，位于北美最大的市场。这些体育特许经营权对于富有的亿万富翁来说是非常奢侈的资产，或者说是战利品资产，这些业务的实际经济状况往往并不好。
它们不太盈利。运营这些球队和支付薪水非常昂贵。因此，它们可能并不像你预期的那样盈利。
Um, so two you know two two prominent franchises uh in two you know two of the four u major sports in in North America um in the biggest market in North America. Uh and and these sports franchises are are very much luxury assets uh or sorry trophy assets um for for wealthy billionaires where uh the actual economics of these businesses is often not that good. They're not very profitable. Uh it's incredibly expensive to uh to to run these teams and to pay the salaries. And so they're actually not maybe as profitable as you might expect.
我们刚刚看到湖人队有一些法律上的障碍，关于交易是否会完成，但我认为湖人队的估值是125亿美元。我认为尼克斯队被认为是仅次于湖人队的第二或第三最有价值的球队。
Um, we just saw the Lakers, uh, you know, get a there's some legal hiccups, uh, about whether the deal is going to close, but I think there was a 12.5 billion dollar valuation on on the Lakers. Um, I think the Knicks are considered the second or third most valuable uh, franchise behind the Lakers.
而且，存在一种税收漏洞，使得购买体育特许经营权更具吸引力。你可以将整个购买价格在若干年内摊销。因此，你基本上可以获得显著的税收优惠，因为你可以让你的收入看起来严重扭曲，尽管这些资产实际上并不会折旧，对吧？这些球队不会折旧。
Uh, and so part of uh, there is this tax loophole that makes buying uh, sports franchises a little bit more attractive. um you can amvertise the entire purchase price over um a certain number of years. Uh and so you get basically a sign a significant tax benefit uh because you can make the income look uh you can make your income look um significantly distorted even though there really would be they're not depreciating assets, right? Like you're these teams are not depreciating.
但无论如何，有一种税收漏洞使得亿万富翁进行这些大额购买更具吸引力，此外，说你自己拥有尼克斯队，可以去看比赛等等，这真的很酷。
But so anyways, there's sort of a tax loophole that makes it attractive for billionaires who want to make these big purchases on top of the fact that, you know, it's just really cool to say that you own the Knicks and you can show up to the games and whatever it is.
所以，当你查看麦迪逊广场花园体育的资产时，我加总了福布斯对尼克斯队和游骑兵队的隐含估值或估计估值，然后我扣除了总负债，得到了公司的隐含净资产价值。
Uh so when you look at the assets of uh of Madison Square Garden Sports, um I added up the Forb's implied valuation or their estimated valuation for the Knicks and the Rangers and then I just took out the total liabilities to get the implied net asset value for the company.
重要的是，在不同时期，该公司的市值与福布斯的净资产价值估计之间存在显著差距。福布斯在估计球队价值方面有很好的记录，这与它们未来最终出售的价格相符。因此，我对福布斯的估计有很高的信心。
Um and the big story is is that at different times um there has been a significant gap between the market cap uh valuation of these companies uh of his company um and the Forbes net asset value estimation. And so, um, Forbes actually, it's sort of another tangent to go on, but, um, I'll just say in short that they have a very good track record of estimating, um, what teams are worth, uh, and that has matched up well for, you know, what they end up selling for at in the future. Uh, so I have a good bit of conviction in the the Forbes estimations.
在去年2025年我们查看时，球队的净资产价值有近50%的折扣，基本上市值是45亿到50亿美元，而体育特许经营权的价值是100亿美元。所以，你基本上是以折扣价买入尼克斯队，而免费获得游骑兵队，这说起来有点疯狂。
Uh and so at one point when we looked at it last year in 2025 um the there was the biggest uh there was a almost a 50% discount um to the net asset value of of the franchises where basically um you know the market cap was was uh what four and a half five billion um and the value of the sports franchises was 10 billion. So, you're basically um buying the Knicks at a discount and getting the Rangers for free, which is sort of a crazy thing to say.
事后看来，我必须承认，对我们来说，这是我们播客中报道的第一家公司。我不想开创先例，买入那些没有良好基础运营指标的企业，其中存在投机成分，你说，亿万富翁会越来越富有，他们会不断提高这些战利品资产的价格。
还有一些税收漏洞，你可能不会利用，或者不知道它们是否会关闭。
Uh so, in hindsight, um yeah, I just have to admit like for me, we were this is one of the this was actually the first company we covered on the podcast. Um, I didn't want to set a precedent of of of buying into businesses that didn't have great, you know, underlying operating uh uh metrics where like, you know, there is a speculative component of it of you're you're saying, hey, you know, billionaires are going to keep getting richer and they're going to, you know, bid up the price of of these uh trophy assets more and more and more. And then there's some tax loopholes that you do that you don't do or don't know whether they'll uh they'll close.
无论如何，事后看来，能够以福布斯估计的净资产价值50%的折扣买入，相对于公司的市值，那真的很有吸引力，而我们错过了。我太谨慎了。
And so anyways, um, in hindsight, being able to have bought, uh, at a 50% discount to Forb's estimated NAV, uh, relative to the market cap of the company, that was, uh, really attractive and and we just missed that. Uh, I was too I was too cautious.
而今天，既然尼克斯队取得了成功，他们赢得了NBA总决赛，那个折扣已经大幅缩小。所以现在只有大约20%的折扣。当你考虑到摩擦成本和一些不确定性，以及福布斯的估计并非100%精确，这有点啰嗦地说，MSGS可能大致公允估值。
And so today, now that the Knicks uh, have had success, they, you know, won um, you know, they won the NBA uh, finals. Um, now that discount has has closed dramatically. Uh, so there's only a 20% discount roughly. Uh, and when you think about the friction costs and some of the uncertainties and the fact that, you know, the Forbes estimate isn't exactly isn't 100% precise, that's kind of a rambling way to say that u MSGS is is probably about fairly valued.
所以这只是一个非常有趣的案例。我们错过了。我不知道，鉴于尼克斯队最近表现这么好，我怀疑我们是否还会有机会。
Uh, so this is just one that was really interesting. We missed it. Um, I don't know. I I doubt given how good the Knicks are have done recently that we'll get um an opportunity.
球队的表现情绪与折扣的宽度确实存在相关性。所以，你是在押注体育特许经营权将继续升值，在高层面上，我觉得没问题。
You know, there's really a correlation with like the sentiment around how the teams are doing and how wide the discount becomes. Um, and so it's sort of a mean you're you're betting on the the sports franchises to continue to appreciate in value, which at a high level, you know, I'm comfortable with.
如果去年我们买了，我们就是在押注折扣的均值回归。我昨天还在想不买是否是个错误。现实是，你不知道这些折扣何时会关闭，需要多长时间。所以你不知道你签的是什么，这并不完全是好的投资实践。
Uh and then in last year if we had bought it uh we would have been betting on um a mean reversion in the discount you know and I was thinking about it actually yesterday of whether not buying was a mistake. Um and the reality is you just don't know when these discounts are going to close and how long it's going to take. So you don't you don't know what you're signing up for and that's not exactly great um great investing practice.
碰巧尼克斯队有一个不可思议的赛季，一路打到了最后。这极大地改变了球队的叙事。但如果球队表现糟糕，如果他们的赛季很糟糕，折扣可能会再维持50%一年。然后你就是在押注你的投资依赖于球队的表现。
It just so happened that uh you know the Knicks um had an incredible season um and and and went all the way. Uh and so that you know dramatically changed the narrative around the franchises. Um but if they had had a if the team had tanked, if they'd had a terrible season, um the discount probably would have stayed at 50% for another year. And then now you're betting on um your investment is dependent on the performance of a
我们谈到了耐克、MSG。所以，我不知道。是的，我对排名感觉很好。
Um, we talked about Nike, MSG. So, I don't know. Yeah, I feel good about the rankings.
这个频道对 $MSG 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。