鉴于其稀释性的资本配置和资产出售,MSTR的溢价估值是不合理的;其资本结构已破裂,需要重置。
逐段跳播
我最喜欢的公司发布了新的8-K文件,我不得不谈谈这家公司继续以溢价交易以及其资本配置有多么疯狂。
My favorite company they published new 8K and I just had to talk about how crazy it is that this company continues to trade at a premium and the capital allocation there.
所以,我将从谈论我痴迷的公司开始。这家公司就是前身为MicroStrategy的Strategy。披露一下,我少量做空了Strategy的股票,并少量做多了优先股,但我就是无法释怀这家公司,我发誓我会坚持到底,我会把整个Strategy的事情贯穿始终,贯穿这整个随意的漫谈。
So, I'm going to start off talking about the company I'm obsessed with. The strategy formerly known as MicroStrategy. Disclosure, I'm short a little bit of strategy and long a little bit of the prefs, but I just cannot get over this company and I swear I'm going to land I'm going to stick the landing and I'm going to pull this strategy thing as a whole through for this whole random ramblings.
但是,你知道,他们今早发布了一份8-K文件。哦,让我看看我能不能在我说话的时候调出这份8-K,但他们发布了一份8-K,8-K上说:“嘿,我们卖出了3亿美元的Strategy股票。”
我的意思是,这是一家大型公司,所以这不算什么大事,但你知道,这是3亿美元的股票,我们还卖出了1亿美元的比特币,我们用所得款项购买了大约8000万美元的Stretch优先股。
But, you know, they published an 8-K this morning. Oh, let me see if I can pull up the 8-K while there while I I'm talking, but they published an 8-K and the 8-K says, "Hey, we we sold 300 million of strategy stock." I mean, this is a massive company, so it's not like this is a giant thing, but you know, it's 300 million of stock and we also sold 100 million of Bitcoin and we took the proceeds and we purchased like 80 million of stretch preferreds.
所以,现在Strategy的情况是,这家公司的交易价格高于资产净值,它在稀释股东,并出售其比特币,以便在公开市场上以小幅折价回购优先股,并将大量现金留在资产负债表上。你只要看看它,就会想,这家公司怎么会以溢价交易?这对我来说太疯狂了。我无法释怀。
So, what you have in strategy now is you have a company that's trading over nav that is diluting shareholders and selling their Bitcoin in order to buy back prefs at a slight discount on the open market and to park a lot of cash on their balance sheet. And I just you just look at it and you're like, how is this company trading at a premium? Like it it it's just it's so crazy to me. I can't get over it.
但这将成为贯穿主线的原因是,你知道,我作为一个持有仓位的人,读了他们的财报电话会议记录,就像持有仓位的人应该读的那样。他们能像变魔术一样谈论这件事,真是疯狂,对吧?他们说:“嘿,看,Strategy在一年前、6个月前、2年前,当我们刚开始购买比特币时,已经进化了。
我们是一个单向资本发行者。”那意味着他们只是发行股票来买回比特币,来购买比特币。现在他们说我们是一个多向资本发行者,对吧?我们会发行股票以折价购买优先股,或者我们会卖出比特币以折价购买股票。
他们说得好像自己是天才一样,而我的意思是,他们谈论的只是良好的资本配置。我的意思是,甚至不是良好,而是正常的资本配置,对吧?
But the reason this is going to be a through line is you know, I read their earnings call as someone with a position in them should read their earnings call. And it's crazy how they can talk like it's magic, right? They say, "Hey, look, strategies evolved a year ago, 6 months ago, 2 years ago, when we first started buying Bitcoin. We were a one-way capital issue." And what that means is they were just they only issued stock to buy back Bitcoin to buy Bitcoin. And now they say we're a multi-way capital issue, right? We'll issue stock to buy that preferred at a discount or we'll sell our Bitcoin to buy stock at a discount. And they're saying it like they're some genius and what that I mean all they're talking about is good capital allocation. I mean not even good, like normal capital allocation, right?
现在,这成为本期播客贯穿主线的原因是,你知道,无论你对加密货币持什么看法。你可以是加密货币多头,加密货币怀疑者,无论什么。我总体上对加密货币一直相当怀疑。但MicroStrategy在2020年做出比特币转向时的底层观察是好的,对吧?
你可以从很多不同的层面来说。我认为当他们做出转向时,比特币的交易价格大约在2万美元,而今天是6.5万美元。它曾达到大约12万美元的高点,对吧?但在6年内翻了三倍多,这是一个非常好的结果,对吧?
现在,我们将忽略他们有点在顶部堆积的事实。所以,他们整体购买实际上是亏损的。但如果你只看第一件事,6年内翻三倍是一个非常不错的结果。顺便说一句,他们的主题也是对的。他们的主题是:“嘿,有些股票投资者想要以某种方式、某种形式接触加密货币,但他们无法获得。”
回到2020年,很容易忘记比特币很难获得,对吧?你可能会被黑客攻击。当时没有比特币ETF,诸如此类。一家上市公司去做这件事,并且能够在你的经纪账户中交易它们,就像,你知道,我当时很怀疑。
我说:“嘿,这些是金融市场。”就像人们会……但他们赌的是人们想要一个一键按钮来购买比特币,他们是对的,对吧?所以,他们在这方面大获成功。
Now, the reason this is the through line for this podcast is you know, say what you will about crypto. You can be a crypto bull, a crypto skeptic, whatever it is. I I've generally been pretty skeptical of crypto. But MicroStrategy's underlying observation back in 2020 when they made the Bitcoin pivot was a good one, right? And you can say that on a whole host of different levels. I think Bitcoin was trading at like 20,000 when they made the pivot and it's at 65,000 today. It peaked at like 120,000, right? But a triple inside of I suppose that 6-year, more than a triple inside of 6 years is a very good result, right? A A Now, we're going to ignore that they kind of piled in at the top. So, they're actually underwater on their overall purchases. But if you just take the first thing, uh a triple in 6 years is a very good result. And by the way, they were also right on their theme. Their theme was, "Hey, there equity people who want exposure to crypto in some way, shape or form and they cannot get it." Back in 2020, it's very easy to forget Bitcoin was hard to get right. You get hacked. There were no Bitcoin ETFs, all this sort of stuff. A public company going and doing this and being able to trade them in your brokerage account, like you know, I was skeptical. I said, "Hey, these are financial markets." Like people get But they were they were betting that people wanted a one-click button to buy to buy Bitcoin and they were right, right? So it So they they hit it out of the park with that.
但他们从未卖出。他们从未交易,甚至从未考虑过,直到最近,对吧?他们进化了,我认为他们进化是因为他们的资本结构,我个人认为他们完全搞砸了他们的资本结构。呃,我认为如果他们坚持他们讲述的故事,坚持那种永远持有的方式,他们会更好。他们有点跌倒了,但现在他们在卖出。
But they never sold. They never traded and they never even considered it until recently, right? Where they've evolved and I think they evolved cuz their capital structure I personally think they completely bungled their capital structure. Uh I think they would have been better off with the kind of holdle forever thing just on the story they're telling. They kind of fall, but now they're selling.
就像Strategy以前是机械的,我们卖出股票,买入比特币,我们从不做其他任何事情。
And in the same way that strategy before was mechanical, we sell our stock and buy Bitcoin and we never do anything else.
你知道,再说一次,这个Strategy的事情很疯狂,每次这家公司的估值都让我觉得好笑,对我来说很明显,这是一个完全破碎的资本结构,需要重置,需要融资。但仅仅他们说了“嘿,我们要开始考虑卖出。
我们要开始考虑进化”这一事实,就让我觉得好笑。我不敢相信他们竟然能把它糊弄过去,但这也让我开始考虑卖出。
And you know, again, this strategy thing is crazy and it cracks me up every time this the company's valuation it seems so clear to me that this is a completely busted capital structure that needs to be reset and it needs to be financed. It But just the fact that they said, "Hey, we're going to start thinking about selling. We're going to start thinking about evolving." was hilarious to me. I can't believe they managed to pull it over, but it also, you know, got me thinking about selling.
这个频道对 $MSTR 的历次判断
Yet Another Value Podcast 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。