$MU

美光被低估,由于云资本开支繁荣和长期供应协议降低周期性,其股价有超过56%的上涨空间至1473美元。

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3 Undervalued AI Stocks You Can Buy With 40% Upside or More
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA发布 2026-09-05 · 6 段内容
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6 段内容
4:2210:53

下一只具有显著上涨潜力的AI股票是美光。我计算出该公司的公允价值为1473美元。当前市场价格为941美元。因此,考虑到这一差异,我计算出美光在未来12至18个月内潜在上涨超过56%。

The next AI stock with significant upside potential is Micron. I calculated the fair value of this company at $1473 . The current market price is $941. Therefore, considering this difference , I calculate a potential upside of over 56% for Micron over the next 12 to 18 months.

美光明显的上涨因素是来自美国超大规模云计算公司的资本支出热潮。这些公司如亚马逊、微软、Alphabet和MetaPlatforms,它们将在2026年合计花费超过8000亿美元的资本支出。

这一估计将在2027年升至1.3万亿美元。因此,资本支出已经连续几年出现巨大且大规模的增长,预计2027年将再次出现巨大增长。

Micron's obvious upswing factor is the capital spending boom from ultra-large- scale cloud computing companies in the United States . These are companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet , and MetaPlatforms, which together will spend more than $800 billion on capital expenditures in 2026. That estimate will rise to $1.3 trillion in 2027. So, there has been a huge and massive increase in capital spending for several consecutive years now, and 2027 is expected to see another huge increase.

我们对2028年还了解不够,但美光已多次告知投资者,他们已签署了几项延伸至2030年之后的战略客户协议。因此,投资者对2027年之后会发生什么有一点信息,但不多。

We don't know enough about 2028 yet, but Micron has informed investors several times that they have signed several strategic customer agreements that extend beyond 2030 . Therefore, investors have a little information about what will happen after 2027, but not much.

这很好地引出了美光最大的下行因素,即周期性波动。当然,现在业务蓬勃发展,但当这些公司觉得自建数据中心很舒服,当他们觉得已经足够时,业务会怎样?美光的销售会怎样?是会急剧崩溃,还是只是停止显著增长,同时保持已达到的水平?

This leads us well to Micron's biggest downside factor , which is cyclical volatility. Certainly, business is booming now, but what will happen to business when these companies feel comfortable building their own data centers, and when they feel they have enough? What will happen to Micron's sales? Will it collapse sharply, or will it simply stop growing significantly, while maintaining the levels it has achieved?

已经提到了战略客户协议,这让投资者对公司的长期销售有了更好的了解。一个管理团队表示,半导体行业正在发生一点变化,波动性将降低,因为他们对未来几年的销售数据有了更好的了解,因为客户与美光的互动更加频繁,并进行长期规划。

而之前的计划只涵盖一年,这些客户现在如此重视供应,以至于他们联系美光并签署协议以确保未来几年的供应。因此,美光管理团队表示,这使得工作风险降低;因为他们不仅对下一年的销售有更清晰的认识,而且对三年或五年后的销售也有更清晰的认识,这使他们能够更有效地进行规划。

他们可以更有效地调整可用产能,从而使公司业务不易受到周期性波动的影响。并非完全不受经济周期影响,半导体行业由于其与该行业增长的紧密联系,将始终与某种周期性相关。但至少不会像过去那样严重,因为整个生态系统提前数年进行规划,而不仅仅是期待近期的销售繁荣。

Strategic customer agreements have been mentioned, giving investors a slightly better view of the company's long-term sales. A management team said the semiconductor industry is changing a little and will become less volatile because they have a better view of sales figures for several years into the future, as customers interact with Micron more frequently and plan for the long term. Whereas previously the plans covered only one year, these customers now feel the importance of supplies so much that they are reaching out to Micron and signing agreements to secure supplies for several years to come. Therefore, the Micron management team stated that this makes the work less risky; Because they have a clearer view of sales not just for the next year, but for three or five years beyond, which allows them to plan more effectively. They can adjust their available production capacity more effectively, thereby making the company's business less vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations. Not entirely immune to economic cycles, the semiconductor industry will always be linked to some kind of cyclicality due to its close connection to the growth of the sector. But at least it won't be as severe as it was in the past, because the entire ecosystem is planning years in advance instead of just looking forward to a near-term sales boom.

当然,当美光在9月底公布季度财务业绩时,我们将对人工智能领域有更多了解。

Of course, we will know a lot more about the artificial intelligence sector when Micron announces its quarterly financial results at the end of September.

他说在等什么

季度财务业绩公告
为AI行业提供更多清晰度
9月底财报
将为论点有效性提供进一步信息

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Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-09-05看涨本条
下一只具有显著上涨潜力的AI股票是美光。我计算出该公司的公允价值为1473美元。当前市场价格为941美元。因此,考虑到这一差异,我计算出美光在未来12至18个月内潜在上涨超过56%。
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