Micron已接近业绩峰值，利润率不可持续；鉴于未来需求与供给可能发生变化，建议部分获利了结。
逐段跳播
但当今人工智能领域最热门的公司之一呢？它就是 Micron，一家市值 1.2 万亿美元的公司。看 Micron 的图表，很难不对其业务中正在发生的事情印象深刻。
But what about one of the most popular companies in the field of artificial intelligence today? It is Micron, a company with a market capitalization of $1.2 trillion. It's hard to look at Micron's charts without being extremely impressed by what's happening in its business.
我们来看看营业利润。如你所见，营收大幅增长，但随之而来的是什么？营业利润和毛利。这是因为该公司只是提高价格。它并没有增加所生产产品的数量，也没有增加所生产的存储器的数量，也没有增加成本，而是把这笔钱加到了净利润里。
Let's take a look at operating profit. As you can see, revenue has increased significantly, but what followed? Operating profit and gross profit. This is because the company simply raises prices.
It does not increase the quantity of products it produces, nor the quantity of memory it produces, nor does it increase its costs, but rather it adds this money to its net profits.
市场认为这将在未来持续下去。我认为很难想象一个 Micron 无法取得出色业绩的世界，至少在接下来的几个章节里是这样。
The market believes this will continue in the future. I think it's hard to imagine a world where Micron doesn't achieve outstanding results, at least in the next few chapters.
但投资者至少应该以 6 到 18 个月的周期来思考。到那时情况会是什么样？他们能维持毛利率吗？
But investors should think at least for a period of 6 to 18 months. What will the work look like then? Will they be able to maintain a gross profit margin?
他们的毛利率是 86%，而从历史上看，我们来看看 Micron 的年度数据。历史上，他们从未接近过这个数字。我们可以回溯到 2005 年。毛利率最高时约为 60%，但会周期性地跌到零以下。
Their gross profit margin is 86%, while historically, let's look at Micron's annual figures. Historically, they have never come close to this number. We can go back to 2005. The gross profit margin peaked at around 60%, but periodically falls below zero.
这是一个大宗商品市场，其中发生的情况是，2026 年的全部需求在年初就已经被计入价格了。如果你是 Nvidia、Apple 或 Amazon，你为 2026 年设计的芯片到 2026 年 9 月不会改变。
会改变的是下一代芯片的设计。因此，它们对高带宽存储器（HBM）的依赖将会下降。
This is a commodities market, and what happens in it is that all the demand for 2026 was already factored in at the beginning of the year. If you are Nvidia, Apple, or Amazon, the chips you designed for 2026 will not change by September 2026.
What will change are the designs of the next-generation chips. Therefore, their reliance on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) will decrease.
这种存储器已经变得极其昂贵，而传统动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）面临的挑战是……你正在把硅芯片从 DRAM 转换为高频率随机存取存储器（HBM）。因此，如果 HBM 的需求相对于供给开始下降，这将增加传统 DRAM 的供给，从而恢复市场平衡。
This memory has become extremely expensive, and the challenge facing traditional Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) is...you are converting silicon chips from DRAM to High Frequency Random Access Memory (HBM).
Therefore, if the demand for HBM starts to fall compared to the supply, this will increase the supply of conventional DRAM, which will restore market balance.
这是从需求端来看。价格已大幅上涨，这将推动芯片需求以不同方式重新设计，比如在 iPhone 中放入更少的存储器。这将导致存储器需求略有下降，但更重要的是，新的产能将投产，尤其是在 2028 年和 2029 年。
This is from the demand side. Prices have risen significantly, which will drive demand for chips to be redesigned differently, such as putting less memory in iPhones, for example.
This will lead to a slight decrease in demand for memory, but more importantly, the new production capacity that will come online, especially in 2028 and 2029.
所以，随着我们进入2027年，市场的关注点将在于：2028年和2029年将发布多少新的硅芯片？来自中国的供应情况如何？
So, as we enter 2027, the market's focus will be on this: how many new silicon chips will be released in 2028 and 2029? What is the supply situation from China?
我们知道，大公司会投资资本支出以增加产量，试图利用这个市场，但这是大宗商品市场中会发生的情况。没有任何一家公司有能力做到这一点。它们无法永远控制供应，但它们也无法控制需求。
We know that large companies invest in capital expenditures to increase their production, trying to take advantage of this market, but this is what happens in the commodities market.
No single company is capable of that. They will not be able to control the supply forever, but they will not be able to control the demand.
所以，我认为我们正接近Micron业绩的顶峰，而该股看起来非常便宜。如果只看市盈率，我们会发现它目前只有七倍。这对Micron股票来说看起来非常便宜。
So, I think we're approaching the peak of Micron's performance, and the stock looks very cheap. If we look only at the price-to-earnings ratio, we find it is currently only seven. This looks very cheap for Micron stock.
但请记住，如果毛利率从83%降至40%，它们的利润将不只是下降50%，而是下降90%。到那时它们可能会亏损。
But remember, if the gross profit margin drops from 83% to 40%, their profits will not only drop by 50%, but by 90%. They might lose money at this point.
所以，Micron真正的危险在于，如果它最好的日子已经过去，如果需求状况在未来几年开始发生变化，请记住它们签订的那些长期合同，其中包含价格限制。这意味着它们无法将价格提高到某一限度之上，而客户将不得不支付一个固定价格。
这将保护它们的一部分盈利能力，但如果市场开始注意到需求下降，如果现货市场价格开始下跌，将会产生可怕的后果。市场会对此作出反应。
So, the real danger for Micron is that if its best days are over, and if the demand situation starts to change over the next couple of years, remember those long-term contracts they sign, which include price restrictions.
This means they cannot raise their prices above a certain limit, and customers will have to pay a set price. This will protect part of their profitability, but if the market starts to notice a decrease in demand, and if spot market prices start to fall, there will be dire consequences. The market will react to this.
所以，我认为如果你是Micron的股东，今天撤出部分利润是个非常好的主意。
So, I think withdrawing some profits, if you are a shareholder in Micron, is a very good idea today.
在这种背景下显得估值过高的公司包括Oracle、Korwef、Micron、Amazon和Tesla。我认为所有这些股票都
Among the companies that appear to be overvalued in this context are Oracle, Korwef, Micron, Amazon, and Tesla. I believe all these stocks are
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