预计MU在财报后下跌或表现不佳；基于需要超常利润以及历史上急涨后回落的规律，给出看空预期。
逐段跳播
你对 Micron 的财报是乐观还是悲观？我们明天会看一下预期波动，因为他们明天会公布业绩，这很令人兴奋。
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Micron's earnings? We will take a look at the expected move tomorrow, because they will announce their results tomorrow, and that is exciting.
我们会看 MU 指数，但鉴于财报公布日期临近，我们也会看一下 SPX 指数。
We will be looking at the MU index, but given the approaching earnings announcement date , we will also take a look at the SPX index.
我有一个关于 MU 的调查，想了解你是乐观还是悲观。我们会更仔细地看一下。如果你想推迟投票，可以。我们会回顾一下市场整体正在发生什么。然后我们会专门看一下 MU。这里是 MU。
I have a survey about MU to find out if you are optimistic or pessimistic. We will take a closer look at it. If you wish to postpone the vote, you can. We will review what is happening in the market in general.
Then we will take a look at MU specifically. Here's MU.
这其中的部分催化剂将是股票的表现以及像 Micron 这样的公司的财报。因此，我自己对 Micron 的预期是，我们会有些悲观。
Part of the catalyst for this will be the performance of stocks and the earnings of companies like Micron. Therefore, my own expectations regarding Micron are that we will be somewhat pessimistic .
我会给你们看 Micron 公司的利润。实际上，我们会先谈 Micron 股票，然后我会给你们看我准备的小数据表。
I will show you the profits of Micron company. Actually, we will first talk about Micron stock, and then I will show you the small data table that I have prepared.
这大体上符合我对 Micron 股票的预期。因此，我认为可能会出现大幅上涨。如果那样，我认为他会稍微回落。我们在这里看一下 Micron 的股票。
This is largely in line with my expectations for Micron stock. Therefore, I believe there could be a significant price increase. If that happens, I think he will back down a little . Let's take a look at Micron's stock here.
我们会看一些过去的财报。在这份报告和当前财报之间发生的事情中，市场在这里看起来是绿色的（如果还不明显的话）。这里我们看到过去的财报，这里是当前财报，这里是紫色的即将公布的财报，将在明天发布。
我们在今年第一季度看到的是利润上升，然后在第二季度略有企稳，接着在利润分配之后出现下降。之后，我们看到价格强劲上涨。这波上涨在当前这份财报中见顶，形成了显著的价格缺口。在此之前我们看到了大幅波动，股票频繁上涨和下跌。所以，价格先涨后跌。
We will take a look at some past earnings. Of the things that have happened between this report and the current earnings report, the market appears green here (if it is not obvious).
Here we see past earnings, here are current earnings , and here are upcoming earnings in purple, which will be released tomorrow. What we witnessed in the first quarter of this year was a rise in profits, then a slight stabilization in the second quarter, and then a decline after the distribution of profits.
After that, we saw a strong rise in price. This surge peaked in the current earnings report , which created a significant price gap. We have seen significant fluctuations before this, with the stock frequently rising and falling. So, the price rose and then fell.
我感兴趣的是财报公布之后的那段时间。不是公布本身，而是之后的那段时间。所以，我想从估值的角度来看，因为许多公司要求的估值接近 1,300 美元。所以，如果我们那样看，这可能是我们能看到的最大价格。
但我预期的是，我们需要异常高的利润。他们会实现……数字是多少？510 亿美元？510 亿美元，或者预测是 500 亿美元，而市场预测是 515 亿美元。因此，在我看来，我们实际上需要超过利润预期，公司才能有正面前景。
What interests me is the time period that followed the earnings announcement itself. It's not the announcement itself, but the period that followed it. So, I wanted to look at it from a valuation perspective, since many companies are asking for a valuation close to $1,300.
So, if we look at it that way, this might be the maximum price we could be looking at. But what I expect is that we need exceptional profits. They will achieve...what is the number?
$51 billion? $51 billion, or $50 billion is the forecast, and the market forecast is $51.5 billion . Therefore, we actually need to exceed profit expectations in order for the company to have a positive outlook, in my opinion.
因此，即使我们明天看到大幅跳涨，如果财报良好或好于预期，并且我们看到这种价格跳涨，我认为我们会看到回调。我们在上一次财报中看到了这一点；这里跳涨，然后价格在很长一段时间内下跌。
Therefore, even if we see a big jump tomorrow, if the earnings report is good or better than expected, and we see this jump in price, I think we will see a pullback. We saw this in the last earnings report ; this jump here, then the price fell for a long period.
所以，我做的是创建了一个小图表，现在我要展示它。这张图表是关于 MU 股票的。我们应该叫他……是的，先生。如你所见，我在 Google Sheets 上工作。这些是 MU 公司的利润。
我提取了一些价格，它们可以追溯到 2022 年。我不想追溯太深，因为市场会随时间变化。所以，我们看的是未来预测，或者更确切地说，我们看的是 2026 年第三季度。财报公布日期是 6 月 24 日。
我想知道财报公布前的股价，因为这是它今天的价格。这是它在财报公布前一天的价格。如果我们看上一季度财报公布前的股价，是 1048。然后我想看 51 天后的股价。我特意选择 51 天，因为它们代表 11 月的合约。
So, what I did was create a small graph, and I'm going to show it now. This chart is for MU stock. We should call him... Yes, sir. As you can see, I work on Google Sheets. These are the profits of MU company .
I extracted some prices, and they go back to 2022. I didn't want to go too deep because the market changes over time. So, we are looking at future projections, or rather, we are looking at the third quarter of 2026.
The earnings announcement date was June 24th. I wanted to know the stock price before the earnings announcement, because this is its price today. This is its price one day before the earnings announcement.
If we look at the stock price before the earnings announcement in the last quarter, it was 1048. Then I wanted to look at the stock price after 51 days. I specifically chose 51 days because they represent the contracts for the month of November.
这张图表是关于 MU 股票的。
This chart is for MU stock.
我们在这里回顾一下 MU 的数据。我们会打开 MU 页面。我们会转到期权系列。如所示，我们明天有一份财报。然后在 11 月 20 日，也就是 52 天或 51 天之后。我们会选择两个期权。
两个都是赢家。我们在这里看这两个。如果我们想计算预期波动，我们会看从这里开始的预期波动是多少？是 1070。所以，我们会把两者的价格相加。我们会加上购买宽跨式期权的价值。我们把这个叫做 190。
然后我们把结果除以 190 × 0.8。计算器在哪里？我会为你做这个计算。我们会一起做。这样你就能看到我们所看到的。如果你愿意，可以用 0.75，但 0.8 是常见价格。所以，190。
你明白我从哪里得出这些计算的吗？买入双重看涨期权（Long Straddle），看涨期权的买入价和看跌期权的买入价。目前，看涨期权的价值略高，所以根据今天的价格，期权价格略有向上倾斜。
股票交易在 1072。因此，190 x 0.8。这会让我们大致了解从现在到……之间的预期波动。
Let's review the MU data here. We will open the MU page. We will move on to the options series. We have an earnings announcement tomorrow, as shown. Then on November 20, that is, after 52 or 51 days.
We will choose both options. Both are winners. Let's look at both of them here. If we want to calculate the expected movement, we will look at what the expected movement is from here?
It's 1070. So, we'll add up the price of both. We will add the value of purchasing the strangle option. Let's call this 190. Then we divide the result by 190 × 0.8 . Where is the calculator?
I will perform this calculation for you. We will do it together. So that you can see what we see. You can use 0.75 if you want, but 0.8 is the common price . So, 190. Do you understand where I got these calculations from?
Buying a double call option (Long Straddle), the purchase price of the call option and the purchase price of the put option. Currently, the value of the call option is slightly higher, so there is a slight bias towards an upward price for the option based on today's prices.
The stock is trading at 1072. Therefore, 190 x 0.8. This will give us a rough idea of the expected movement between now and
我现在有一笔交易正在进行中，而且规模相当大，这也是我对它感兴趣的原因之一。但如果我们看这一系列数据，先把它完全清空，我们来看11月20日的数据，我有一笔非常大胆的交易。我在1100卖出，在1350买入。
那么，我们在这里会看到，这笔交易现在，如果我们看模拟器，最大亏损为837美元，最大盈利为6000美元。盈利概率为66.74%，这意味着它落在我对盈利或亏损的预期范围内。现在，基于此，预期波动为150点。
好，我们再回到计算器。我们有152加上当前股价。那么，我们假设价格是1072。这笔交易是不久前开始的，所以它并不取决于今天的入场价。10分钟后，价格将是1072加上150，也就是根据我们计算得出的预期价格。
现在，预期价格是1222。如你所见，盈亏平衡点是1162。如果我们走到1222，这笔交易的盈亏值将是6000美元。这就是我押注的东西。我相信，如果我们达到预期价格的上限，根据我已经投入的金额，风险回报比将是相等的。
我的最大盈利是6000美元，最大风险超过18000美元，但预期回报是约6000美元的亏损。这笔交易是无风险的，这是有意为之的。我的投资组合中已经有一些多头头寸，所以主要目标是判断市场走势的方向。
我想知道的是，这也是我制作这个小图表的原因，这些走势重复出现的可能性有多大。说实话，这有点令人担忧。如果我在开始这笔交易之前就做了这个分析会更好。但我是在今天早上还在交易中的时候做的，而且我还没有平仓，这意味着我已经决定继续持有它。
这些绿色阴影的位置表示市场在财报前一天之后的52天，交易在7.19%水平以下的时候。这是市场水平。这是7.9%的水平，因为那是我的盈亏平衡点，而这是141或1141的水平。所以，我想知道的是：这种情况发生的频率有多高？
重要的是要认识到，我们见证了巨大的价格波动。例如，我们看到了14、16、33、59、71的高点。股价从100美元涨到了1065美元。该股已经大幅上涨。我认为，在这次大涨之后，我们在最新财报公布后的第二天看到了一次跳涨，随后是下跌。
我预计会看到类似的价格走势。幅度可能不会很大，可能是轻微的。在我们于第三季度见证的大幅上涨之后，我们经历了20%的下跌，随后在2024年第四季度又经历了23%的下跌。我们取得了正回报，但仍低于盈亏平衡点处的预期涨幅，即7.19。
这就是我得出的结论。那么，现在，如果价格疯狂上涨，我们再看到70%的涨幅，我无法想象那会发生。这就是我设置止损的原因。我不想承担如此大的风险，以至于如果市场彻底崩盘我可能损失50000美元。
这不是明智的做法。因此，我很少做空。我经常设定一个风险水平，但这里的想法是，根据我从图表和其他来源看到的情况，我预计市场波动会小于7%。
I have a deal in progress right now, and it's quite large, which is one of the reasons I'm interested in it. But, if we look at this series, let's wipe it clean completely, and we'll look at the November 20 data , and I have a very bold deal.
I sold at 1100 and bought at 1350. So, we will see here that this trade now, if we look at the simulator , has a maximum loss of $837 and a maximum profit of $6000. The probability of profit is 66.74%, which means it falls within my expectations of profit or loss.
Now, the expected movement now, based on that, is 150 points. Okay, let's go back to the calculator again. We have 152 plus the current share price. So, we'll assume the price is 1072.
This trade started a short time ago , so it doesn't depend on today's entry price. After 10 minutes, the price will be 1072 plus 150, which is the expected price based on our calculations.
Now, the expected price is 1222. As you can see, the breakeven point is 1162. If we move to 1222 , the profit and loss value of this trade will be $6000. That's what I'm betting on .
I believe that if we reach the upper limit of the expected price, the risk-to- reward ratio will be equal based on the amount I have raised. I have a maximum profit of $6,000 and a maximum risk greater than $18,000 , but the expected return is a loss of about $6,000.
This transaction is risk-free , and this was done intentionally. I already have some long positions in my portfolio, so the main objective is to determine the direction of market movement.
What I wanted to know , and that's why I created this little chart, is how likely these moves are to repeat. To be honest, it's a bit worrying . It would have been better if I had done this analysis before starting this deal.
But I am doing it this morning while I am still in the deal, and I have not closed it yet , which means that I have decided to continue with it. These green-shaded positions indicate times when the market, 52 days after the day before earnings, was trading below the 7.19% level.
This is the market level. This is the 7.9% level, because that's the breakeven point for me, and this is the 141 or 1141 level. So, what I wanted to know is: how often does this happen?
It is important to recognize that we have witnessed enormous price movements. For example, we saw highs of 14, 16, 33 , 59, 71. The stock price rose from $100 to $1065. The stock has made a significant rise.
I think that after this big rise, we saw a jump the day after the latest earnings announcement, and then a decline. I expect to see a similar price movement. The height may not be large , it may be slight.
After the significant rise we witnessed in the third quarter, we experienced a 20% decline, followed by a 23% decline in the fourth quarter of 2024. We achieved a positive return, but it was still below the expected rise at the breakeven point, which is 7.19.
This is what I have concluded. Well, now, if the price goes up crazy and we see another 70% increase, I ca n't imagine that happening . That's why I put a stop to the loss. I don't want to take such a big risk that I could lose $50,000 if the market crashes completely.
This is not a wise course of action . Therefore, I rarely trade short positions. I often set a risk level, but the idea here is that I expect the market to move less than 7% based on what I see from the charts and other sources.
I do not expect, for any reason whatsoever, that Micron's stock price will fall below $800. They make huge profits regardless, and their price may never drop . It may rise gradually, but my overall outlook for this stock is short.
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
Drawbridge Finance 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。