MU 是一只高质量的长期买入标的，受益于 AI 驱动的结构性变化与增长，但仍会受到周期性波动影响。
逐段跳播
我同意。接下来我要说说我的选择，这只股票在过去十二个月里同样经历了显著的上涨，甚至可能在过去两年里也是如此，那就是美光（Micron）的股票。
I agree. I will now move on to my choice, which is a stock that has also seen a remarkable rise over the past twelve months, and perhaps even over the past two years, and that is Micron stock.
美光科技（Micron Technologies）的估值约为1.1万亿至1.2万亿美元，具体取决于你观看这段视频的时间，因为股价波动很大。
Micron Technologies is valued at approximately $1.1 to $1.2 trillion, depending on when you watch this video, as the stock price fluctuates a lot.
你可能会觉得自己因为美光股价太高而错过了投资机会，但如果我们看更大的图景，看看人工智能领域的资本支出——这是当下正在发生的一个巨大周期——今年的预计数字略高于1万亿美元。2027年，这一数字将接近1.4万亿至1.5万亿美元。
预计2028年增速将放缓至约1.6万亿美元，这些数字确实令人震惊。
You might think you missed out on investing in Micron because of its high price, but if we look at the bigger picture, and if we look at capital spending on artificial intelligence, which is a huge cycle happening right now, the projected figures for this year are just over $1 trillion.
For 2027, the figure will be close to $1.4 to $1.5 trillion. Growth is expected to slow to around $1.6 trillion in 2028, which are truly staggering figures.
当我们看美光时，总会想到：美光这个名字属于存储领域，它通常是周期性的。我同意这一点。如果我们回顾过去大约十五年发生的事情，就会看到上行周期之后跟着下行周期。
When we look at Micron, what always comes to mind is: "Well, the name Micron is in the memory field. It's usually cyclical." And I agree with this. If we go back and look at what has happened over the past fifteen years or so, we will see upward cycles followed by downward cycles.
现在，没有必要回溯十五年。2023年，自由现金流为负。2023年，也就是仅仅三年前，预计到2026年将达到250亿美元，或许还会略多一点。2029年，估计数字为1850亿美元。
Now, there's no need to go back fifteen years. In 2023, free cash flow was negative. In 2023, just three years ago, it was expected to reach $25 billion in 2026, and perhaps a little more. In 2029, the estimated figure is $185 billion.
让我们假设增长在2028年或2029年达到顶峰。在我看来，这里的情况完全不同，因为此前没有任何一家公司经历过类似的时期，能在仅仅一年内实现超过1000亿美元的自由现金流。
Let's assume we reach peak growth in 2028 or perhaps 2029. In my opinion, the situation here is completely different, as no previous company has ever experienced a similar period in which it achieved free cash flows exceeding $100 billion in just one year.
为什么这很重要？让我们假设我们已经进入衰退。我们目前正处于一个衰退周期，而这家公司拥有巨额现金储备。它可以，例如，派发股息或回购股票。
Why is that important? Let's assume we've entered a recession. Well, we are currently in a recessionary cycle, and this company has enormous cash reserves. It can, for example, distribute dividends or repurchase shares.
顺便说一句，它目前在12月之前不被允许回购任何股票。我认为在12月中旬或12月初，它们将被允许回购自己的股票，而且目前远期市盈率低于10，根据上一季度，毛利率高于80。我认为营业利润率也接近这个水平。
Incidentally, it is currently not allowed to repurchase any shares until December. I think that in mid-December or early December, they will be allowed to repurchase their shares, and with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of less than 10 currently, gross profit margins, based on the last quarter, are above 80.
I think operating profit margins are close to that as well.
我不认为它会在可预见的未来维持在这个高位，但即便如此，如果它们看到股价过低，它们肯定会回购股票。它们可能不会等到2027年第一季度才宣布股票回购计划。
I don't think it will stay at this high level in the foreseeable future, but still, if they see that the share price is too low, they will certainly buy back the shares. They may not wait until the first quarter of 2027 to announce the share buyback program.
目前，预计存储公司产生的自由现金流将超过所有主要科技公司的总和，这是当下一个有趣的动态。
Currently, memory companies are expected to generate more free cash flow than all major technology companies combined, which is an interesting dynamic at the moment.
但为什么美光现在仍在名单上？顺便说一句，美光将在下周公布财报。那将会非常有意思。其营收预计将增长约351%。所以，351%，相当于本财年所产生营收中的51美元。预计下一财年营收将增长200%，就算250%吧，再下一财年增长90%，而之后那个财年则仅增长13.6%。
But why is Micron still on the list now? By the way, Micron will announce its earnings next week. That will be very interesting. Its revenue is expected to grow by approximately 351%.
So, 351%, which is equivalent to $51 of the revenue generated during the fiscal year. Revenues are expected to grow by 200%, let's say 250%, in the next fiscal year by 90%, and in the fiscal year after that by only 13.6%.
因此，很明显，分析师目前预计增长将大幅放缓。这可能会发生，也可能不会像分析师预期的那样迅速发生。也许这就是该股没有获得高估值溢价的原因，对吗？一家增长非常迅速、赚取巨额利润的公司，为什么其股价仍以个位数的远期市盈率交易？这不合逻辑。
Therefore, it is clear that analysts are currently expecting a significant slowdown in growth. That may happen, or it may not happen as quickly as analysts expect. Perhaps this is why the stock did not receive a high price premium, is that correct?
A company that is growing very rapidly and making huge profits, why is its stock price still trading at a single-digit future price-to-earnings ratio? This is illogical.
但正如我们所知，市场总是着眼于未来，所以市场可能已经在看向2029年和2028年。也许到那时增长会放缓。我一直坚持认为资本支出增长将会放缓。
But as we know, the market is always looking ahead, so the market may already be looking to 2029 and 2028. Perhaps then growth will slow down. I have always maintained that capital spending growth will slow down.
是的，所有这些公司，包括云计算巨头和芯片制造商，都会寻求提高内存利用率以提升效率，因为它们当然不想永远支付高昂的价格。但这并不意味着像美光、SK海力士和三星这样的公司就无法继续增长。
Yes, all these companies, including cloud computing giants and chip manufacturers, will seek to improve memory utilization to increase their efficiency, because of course they do not want to pay exorbitant prices forever.
But that doesn't mean that companies like Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung won't be able to continue growing.
利润率确实可能会下降，但我仍然相信回报会继续上升。如果这些营收最终增长，它们会认为这是一笔巨大的收益。目前，我们知道HBM内存——即被AMD和Nvidia等公司用于其庞大的图形处理单元（GPU）组件的高带宽内存——2026年的产能已完全售罄。它们预计供应短缺将持续到2027年之后。
It is true that profit margins may decrease, but I still believe that returns will continue to rise. If these revenues eventually increase, they will consider it a huge gain. Currently, we know that HBM memory, which is high-bandwidth memory used by companies like AMD and Nvidia in their massive graphics processing unit (GPU) assemblies, is completely sold out for 2026.
They expect the supply shortage to continue beyond 2027.
HBM内存的总目标市场规模估计超过一千亿美元。它们告诉我们，2027年动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）预计需求中超过75%将来自人工智能领域的这一扩张。
The total target market size for HBM memory is estimated at over one hundred billion dollars. They told us that more than 75% of the projected demand for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) in 2027 will come from this expansion in the field of artificial intelligence.
所以，如果你觉得自己投资美光晚了，请记住，它现在的数字表明增长迅速。这些数字在不断增长，我相信一旦我们到达这个经济周期的顶峰，该公司将拥有巨额现金储备，这意味着它将能够派发股息、回购股票，或进行投资以确保其在衰退期间持续增长。
So, if you think you were late in investing in Micron, remember that its numbers now indicate rapid growth. These numbers are constantly increasing, and I believe that once we reach the peak of this economic cycle, the company will have enormous cash reserves, meaning it will be able to distribute dividends, repurchase its shares, or invest to ensure its continued growth during recessions.
我认为有意思的是，像 Micron 这样的公司的商业模式已经发生了多大的变化。这在很大程度上是由这个行业的性质决定的，不是吗？以及这个行业在过去两年里发生了怎样的变化。
I think what's interesting is how much the business model of a company like Micron has changed. Much of that is due to the nature of the industry, isn't it? And how this industry has changed over the past two years.
我的意思是，这是一整类已经被重新定价的公司。存储行业长期以来一直是一个定价能力有限的行业的典型例子。如你所知，过去存在大量纯粹基于大宗商品的经济逻辑。经历过繁荣与萧条的周期。这完全正常。
I mean, this is an entire category of companies that have been repriced. The memory sector has long been a prime example of an industry with limited ability to set prices. As you know, there was a lot of pure commodity-based economics.
There have been cycles of boom and bust. This was perfectly normal.
如果你投资于这个领域，以及我们现在所看到的情况，当然，关于存储是否已经不再像大宗商品那样表现，仍然存在争论，但它确实已经成为构建人工智能系统的主要障碍之一，而 Micron 当然仍然是少数几家处于有利位置、能够利用这一转变并帮助缓解这一障碍的公司之一，可以这么说。
If you invest there, and what we are seeing now, of course, there is still debate about whether memory has ceased to behave as a commodity or not, but it has certainly become one of the major obstacles to building artificial intelligence systems, and Micron is, of course, still one of the few companies well-positioned to take advantage of this shift and help alleviate this obstacle, so to speak.
所以，Micron 不仅把业务经营得更好了，而且整个行业的底层结构也在发生变化。我认为它是一家高质量的公司，但它的增长模式，尤其是在最近几个季度，与几年前相比已经非常不同，你知道，如果你长期持有这只股票的话。
So, not only is Micron running its business better, but the underlying structure of the entire industry is changing. I think it's a high-quality company, but it has seen a very different growth pattern, especially in recent quarters, than it did a few years ago, you know, if you've owned this stock for a long time.
长期持有这只股票。所以，如你所知，我认为投资者应该关注的是，这只股票很可能会经历剧烈波动，因为我们预计人工智能市场的增长会出现大幅起伏。我认为从长期来看这是一个可持续的趋势，但我们很可能在某个时点看到放缓，尤其是最近人工智能领域正在就安全担忧和其他问题展开许多讨论。
所以，我认为这很可能会发生，但我并不认为长期来看增长会大幅放缓。放缓可能只是表面上的。
owned this stock for a long time. So, as you know, I think what investors should be watching is that this stock will likely experience significant volatility, as we anticipate sharp fluctuations in the growth of the artificial intelligence market .
I believe this is a sustainable trend in the long term, but we are likely to see a slowdown at some point, especially with the many discussions taking place recently in the field of artificial intelligence about safety concerns and other issues.
So, I think this is likely to happen, but I don't think growth will slow down significantly in the long run . The slowdown may only appear superficially.
所以，如你所知，我认为投资者应该关注的是，这只股票很可能会经历剧烈波动，因为我们预计人工智能市场的增长会出现大幅起伏。
So, as you know, I think what investors should be watching is that this stock will likely experience significant volatility, as we anticipate sharp fluctuations in the growth of the artificial intelligence market.
我认为从长期来看这是一个可持续的趋势，但我们很可能在某个时点看到放缓，尤其是最近人工智能领域正在就安全担忧和其他问题展开许多讨论。所以，我认为这很可能会发生，但我并不认为长期来看增长会大幅放缓。放缓可能只是表面上的。
I believe this is a sustainable trend in the long term, but we are likely to see a slowdown at some point, especially with the many discussions taking place recently in the field of artificial intelligence about safety concerns and other issues.
So, I think this is likely to happen, but I don't think growth will slow down significantly in the long run. The slowdown may only appear superficially.
因此，我认为 Micron 是在这个领域投资的好公司，但可以理解的是，任何押注人工智能存储需求的人都清楚，这个领域历史上经历过频繁的繁荣与萧条周期。随着人工智能这一组成部分的减弱，我们很可能会看到一些大幅下跌，但我认为从长期来看这是一个很好的商业领域。
Therefore, I think Micron is a great company to invest in this area, but it is understandable that anyone betting on demand for AI memory is aware that this field has historically experienced frequent boom-and-bust cycles.
As the artificial intelligence component declines, we are likely to see some significant drops, but I believe it is a great business sector in the long run.
是的，正如我提到的，下周的财报很可能是 Micron 在这个领域首次领跑的时刻之一。虽然有人可能会说它直到上个季度都是人工智能领域的领导者，但我认为当前的情况，加上围绕人工智能的预期起伏不定，可能意味着下周将是该公司的关键时刻，当然也是整个人工智能板块的关键时刻。
Yes, and as I mentioned, next week's earnings report is likely to be one of the first times Micron leads the way in this area. While some might say it was a leader in artificial intelligence until last quarter, I believe that the current situation, with fluctuating expectations regarding artificial intelligence, could mean that next week will be a crucial moment for the company, and certainly for the AI sector as a whole.
是的，这正是关键所在。你知道，我们今天谈到的这些股票，比如 TransDigm Group、Micron 和 Marvell，都是过去几年里大幅上涨的公司。但这背后有一个增长故事。
如你所知，我们谈到过要超越股价去看问题的重要性。估值确实重要，但更重要的是去看底层的增长故事，以判断这个估值是否合理。我相信这三家公司在未来三到五年内已经为其增长提供了强有力的依据。
这正是我们今天想谈论它们的原因。我们不想谈论那些我们认为没有可持续增长故事的公司。我相信这些公司仍然有巨大的增长机会。
Yes, and that's the point. You know, these stocks we talked about today, like TransDigm Group, Micron, and Marvell, are companies that have seen significant gains over the past few years.
But there is a growth story behind it . As you know, we talk about the importance of looking beyond the stock price. It is true that evaluation is important, but what is more important is to look at the underlying growth story to see if that evaluation is justified.
I believe these three companies already have strong justifications for their growth over the next three to five years. That's precisely why we wanted to talk about it today. We don't want to talk about stocks that we don't believe have sustainable growth stories.
I believe these companies still have great opportunities for growth.
观察点
这个频道对 $MU 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。