NBIS 前景光明,但由于估值过高和负自由现金流预测,应放弃。
逐段跳播
好的,现在来看排名第二的公司,它保持第二位,这家公司实际上托管并运营着 Nvidia 的许多硬件,那就是 Nebia's Group,股票代码 NBIS,其市值约为 3.3 亿美元,在投资组合中仅占 0.5%。
All right. Now, coming in at um number two here, holding number two, uh we have a company that actually houses and runs much of Nvidia's own hardware, and that's in Nebia's Group, ticker symbol NBIS, which at about $330 million is still only worth half of 1% in the portfolio.
但 Nvidia 显然在投资这家新云运营商,用于其大型高性能数据中心,这些数据中心配备了 Nvidia 最新的 GPU。Nebia's 随后将所有这些高性能计算能力出租给其他需要但缺乏相同基础设施和专业知识的公司,有时甚至包括软件或平台。
But Nvidia is clearly investing in this neo cloud operator for their giant high-performance data centers that get packed with Nvidia's latest GPUs. Which Nebia's then rents out all of that high computing power to other companies that need it, but don't have all the same infrastructure and expertise as Nebia's to run it, or sometimes even the software or platforms.
鉴于人工智能革命,几乎世界上每一家大公司都在努力寻找将 AI 整合到其运营中的新方法,对这种计算能力的需求正在飙升。
Well, given the AI revolution, where almost every large company in the world is trying to figure out new ways of integrating AI into their operations, well, demand for this compute is rising off the charts.
例如,上个季度,Nebia's 的收入同比增长超过 450%。他们现在的年化收入运行率达到了 30 亿美元。更有趣的是,Luminar 还拥有其他一些有前景的业务,未来可能会爆发,比如一家名为 AV Ride 的自动驾驶公司,已经在与 Uber Eats 合作进行机器人配送;一个名为 TripleTen 的教育科技平台,正在迅速扩展其企业项目,以培养下一代 AI 工程师;甚至还有一个名为 Toloka 的大型数据标注业务,该业务得到了 Jeff Bezos 的支持,为 AI 模型和机器人提供关键的训练数据和基准。
Well, last quarter, for example, Nebia's revenue soared by over 450% year-over-year. They're now sitting on an annualized revenue run rate of $3 billion. So, to make things even more interesting, Luminar also owns a bunch of other promising businesses that could potentially break out in the future, like an autonomous driving company called AV Ride that is already doing robot deliveries with Uber Eats, an EdTech platform called TripleTen that is rapidly expanding its enterprise programs to train the next generation of AI engineers, and even a huge data labeling business called Toloka that is backed by Jeff Bezos and provides the critical training data and benchmarks needed for AI models and robotics.
由于所有这些增长,该股也一路飙升,过去一年上涨了超过 200%。然而,这也是一家花费巨额现金来推动这一大规模扩张的公司。因此,预计自由现金流即使在 2028 年仍将为负。
Well, because of all this growth, the stock has been on an absolute tear as well, climbing over 200% over the past year. However, it's also a company that is spending enormous amounts of cash to fuel all of this grand expansion. As a result, free cash flows are still projected to be negative even going into 2028.
例如,仅上个季度,他们就花费了约 57 亿美元用于资本支出,是其实际销售额的 10 倍。我并不是说这不值得。我确实认为他们作为一家从零开始构建的 AI 云计算提供商,拥有光明的未来,这是一个非常有吸引力的产品。我们看到了对此的巨大需求。
Well, last quarter alone, for example, they spent about 5.7 billion on CapEx, which was 10 times their actual sales. I'm not saying it's not worth it. I do actually think that they have a bright future as a really, you know, compute provider through the cloud that is built with AI from the ground up, which is a very, you know, compelling offering. And we're seeing insane demand for all of that.
但鉴于其估值过高,目前比行业高出数百个百分点,我个人仍然会放弃,因为我已经持有大量高估值的 AI 股票。
But, given the rich valuation that currently trades hundreds of percent higher than the sector, it's still going to be a pass for me personally as I already own just, you know, plenty of highly valued AI stocks as it is.
但当然,鉴于其未来的巨大增长预期和多样性等,我仍会将他们排在 Gen B 之上。所以,我会把它放在中间位置。我暂时将其排在第四位。
But, I will still rank them higher than Gen B, of course, for the enormous growth projections in the future, their diversity, and so on. So, I'll place it right around the middle. I'm going to put them at number four for now.
不过在我看来,Nebius 的业务更多元化、更深远,现金状况更强,而 CoreWeave 更侧重于通过租赁设施和大量债务融资实现的原始规模。同时,CoreWeave 主要位于美国,而 Nebius 更侧重于欧洲和其他地区,其全球 GPU 网络在地理上覆盖了更多地点。
In my opinion though, Nebius has the more diversified far-reaching business with a stronger cash position as CoreWeave focuses more on raw scale that they achieve through leased facilities and extensive debt financing. While also being heavily based in the US while Nebius holds a stronger focus on Europe and elsewhere with a global GPU fabric that really spans across more locations geographically.
这个频道对 $NBIS 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。