Nebius 是逢低买入的机会;尽管存在监管变化或模型集中带来的短期波动风险,AI 基础设施的长期需求依然完好。
逐段跳播
这就引出了我的选择,这实际上是一只股票,如果我们看到同样的新闻标题,情况会完全一样,那就是一家新云(neocloud),或者有些人喜欢称之为AI超大规模厂商,也就是Nebus,故事是一样的,我认为Nebus在这个周末的这则消息下也可能受到打击,因为当开源模型、开放权重模型在整个AI故事中占据越来越多的市场份额时,Nebus是一个大赢家。
他们不在乎你使用哪个模型。他们只想看到使用量上来。
which moves me into my pick which is actually a stock where if we see the same headline it's going to be the exact same thing and that's a neocloud or AI hyperscaler as some like to call it that's Nebus and it's the same story and I think Nebus with the story of of this weekend could also get hit because Nebus is a big winner when it comes to well open source models open weight models taking more and more market share in this whole AI story.
They don't care which model you use. They just want to see usage come in.
现在,Nebus是一家市值是Credo两倍的公司,而且从账面上看目前要贵得多,因为它目前的业务完全不同,对吧?Credo受益于所有的建设。Nebus是这轮建设的一部分。所以,Nebus越想增长,Credo可能也会从中获得一些业务。
Now, a Nebuse is a company worth double credo and is way way more expensive right now on paper because it's completely different business at the moment, right? Credo is benefiting from all of the buildouts.
Nebus is part of that buildout. So, the more Nebus wants to grow, probably Credo gets some business there as well.
但我确实觉得,如果我们回到deepseek时刻,我认为Nebulus有一天跌了38%。因为市场当时只是在想,哦,你知道,deepseek从中国出来,超级看空。每一家美国模型公司、每一家美国AI公司的股票都在一天内下跌了接近40%左右。
But I do feel like if we go back to the deepseek moment, I think Nebulus on one day it was down 38%. Because the market was just seeing, oh, you know, deep sea comes out of China super bearish.
Every American model, every American AI company stock was down in one day close to 40% or so.
当市场在未来几天开盘时,我们可能也会看到过度反应,因为他们把Nebus视为一家新云厂商,而如果前沿AI模型出现放缓,也许这会影响Nebus。我已经看到一些讨论,说这可能会影响新云厂商,主要还是因为它可能伤害或给开源、开放权重模型带来一些压力,而如果所有的力量、所有的集中度都回到比如说三个特定的玩家手中——尽管我们没有完全提到,呃,Google在做Gemini 4,Google的核心业务极其赚钱,Meta正在推出一些很棒的模型,它们的核心业务也极其赚钱——也许,也许这正在给其他这些AI实验室带来压力,这些实验室确实尚未上市,目前仍在亏损相当多的钱。
所以,如果我们看到整个领域的集中度或力量发生转变,从“好吧,每个人都可以发布模型,每个人都可以尽可能快地推进”,变成“等等,我们相信这不安全,所以让我们决定我们要设置什么样的防护措施”。
尽管他们确实谈到了使用第三方,呃,你们怎么称呼他们,裁判和分析师等等等等。当你增加额外的步骤、额外的障碍时,通常受益更多的是大公司,而不是小公司。
when the markets open over the next couple of days, we might see an overreaction as well because they see Nebus as a Neocloud player and if there is a slowdown in frontier AI models, maybe that could affect Nebus.
I've already seen some talk about how that could affect new cloud players again mostly because it might hurt or put some pressure on open-source open way models and if all the power all the concentration goes back into let's say three specific players although we didn't fully mentioned uh Google that working on Gemini 4 Google's core business extremely profitable meta which is coming out with some great models out their core business also extremely profitable and maybe maybe that is putting pressure on these other AI labs which yes are yet to go public are still losing quite a lot of money as of right now and so if we see a shift in let's say concentration or power this whole space from okay everybody can release a model everybody can move as fast as they can to hold on a little bit we believe this is not safe so let us decide what type of guards we are going to put it.
Although they did talk about using third party uh how do you call them referees and and analyst and etc etc. It's always when you add extra steps extra hurdles it's usually the bigger companies that benefit more than the smaller ones.
但我确实认为,正如我之前所说,我不认为你现在能阻止AI。我不认为我们能阻止其发展,尤其是在开源领域,所以无论我们从Nebus看到的过度反应是什么,在短期内,尤其是未来两年,我看不到任何东西能阻止Nebus的建设,甚至,呃,比如说CoreWeave,需求就在那里,它不会因为有些人想放慢AI而消失,而且这整个放缓是训练的一部分,是整个AI故事的一部分,当你看到推理时,你也不能放慢它。
所以,这将是一段我们会看到很多新闻标题的时期。它可能会影响其中一些名字,但我确实认为这将是一个很好的逢低买入机会。当然,预计未来几天会有很大的波动。但这些业务在其项目管线中看到了巨大的增长,而这不会很快改变。
But I do think that as I've said before I don't think you can stop AI right now. I don't think we can stop the development especially not in open source and so whatever overreaction we're seeing from Nebus and in the short run especially over the next two years I don't see anything stopping the build out for Nebus or even uh a core reef for example the demand is there it's not going to disappear because some want to slow down uh AI plus this whole slowouting is part of the training part of of this whole AI story when you look at inference you cannot slow that down as well.
So, it's going to be a period where we're going to see a lot of headlines. It could affect some of these names, but I do think that this will be a good buy the deep opportunity.
Of course, expect a lot of volatility over the next couple of days. But these are businesses that see a huge amount of growth in their pipeline and that's not changing anytime soon.
然后你还有像Nebas或其他,或者,或者其他,呃,其他新云厂商这样的公司可以受益。呃,最后我想提一件事,就是我看到的来自Nebius的一些近期消息,呃,我知道投资者会很想听到,对吧?
与Palunteer的合作,关于主权AI的好消息,这是我们越来越多从其他玩家那里听到的大事之一。然后我们看到Nvidia与Palanteer在主权AI上合作。所以以一种间接的方式,你可以看到这整个,呃,链条是如何很好地运作的,呃,以及目前正在推动的一些市场需求。
所以挺酷的。我认为与他们达成的那个合作相当酷,而且在这个领域有一些真正的大玩家可以合作。
and then you have companies like Nebas or other or or other um Neocloud players that can benefit. Uh, one final thing I want to mention is just some recent news that I saw from from Nebius um that I I know investors would love to hear about, right?
That partnership with Palunteer, great news of kind of sovereign AI and this is one of the big things that we're hearing a lot from other players. And then we saw kind of Nvidia partner up with Palanteer on sovereign AI.
So in an indirect way, you can kind of see how this whole uh chain works really well um and some of the market demands that are pushing right now. So pretty cool. I think that was a pretty cool partnership with them and some really big players to kind of work with in that space.
观察点
这个频道对 $NBIS 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。