NBIS 极度看涨，原因是 GPU 价格自 10 月 1 日起上涨，且合约经济性强劲（短期合约 40M+ 美元/MW，回本期不足 1 年）。
逐段跳播
在今天的节目中，我真正想讲的是两家 NeoCloud 公司，Nebius 和 Core 刚刚发布了一些非常惊人的公告。
On today's episode, what I really want to cover is two NeoCloud players, Nebius and Core just reported some amazing announcements.
好，我想先从 Nebius 说起。这是社区里很受欢迎的一只股票，就在那里。这可能是目前市面上最受欢迎的 NeoCloud 股票之一。我还想说，它是表现最好的。我认为年初至今，该股上涨了约 126%。
All right, so I want to start off with Nebius Nibbius. This is a community favorite, right there. This is probably one of the most popular NeoCloud stocks out right now. I also do want to say it's the best performing.
I think year to date, the stock is up about 126%.
所以这只股票，昨晚有消息称 Nebius 将从 10 月 1 日起上调按需 GPU 价格。Nebius 正在上调 Nvidia GPU 的价格。H100 上涨了约 17%。H200 上涨了约 20%。
B200 上涨了约 19%，B300 上涨了约 21%。这太疯狂了。
So the stock, there were news last night that Nebius is raising on demand GPU prices effective on October 1st. Nebas is increasing pricing across Nvidia GPUs. The H100 saw an increase of about 17%.
The H200 saw an increase of about 20%. The B200 saw an increase of about 19% and the B300 saw an increase of roughly 21%. Which is wild.
第一点是，看到 NeoCloud 市场的 GPU 价格持续上涨真的非常令人兴奋，对吧？因为这个市场，当他们建造大量这类数据中心时，他们并没有把 H100 或任何形式的 GPU 价格上涨纳入模型，对吧？
他们实际上建模的是相反的情况。他们建模的是这些价格会随着时间推移而下降。而如果你看到的是完全相反的情况，这意味着他们建模的任何假设，相对于他们实际将要看到的一些情况来说，都是非常非常保守的。
而现在，如果他们拥有更好的自由现金流，如果他们拥有更好的经营性现金流，你很可能也会看到他们变得非常激进。但总体而言非常非常看涨。
The first thing is it's really exciting to see GPU prices continue to go up for the Neocloud market, right? Because this is a market that when they built a lot of these data centers, they did not model it where H100s or any forms of GPU prices will rise, right?
They actually modeled the opposite. They modeled that these prices would actually decrease over time. And if you are seeing the complete opposite, this means that whatever they modeled is very very conservative to some of the things that they're actually going to be seeing.
And now if they have better free cash flow, if they have better operating cash flow, you're most likely also going to see them kind of be very aggressive. But overall very very bullish.
现在如果我们看一下 Nebius 最近的财报，他们确实分享了某些合同的定价情况。他们提到，他们典型的合同是每兆瓦约 2000 万美元的交易，这些合同的回本周期不到 2 年，而且它们现在正开始上线。
如果你在选择长期还是短期合同，短期合同实际上大约在 4000 万美元以上每兆瓦，这极其极其强劲，对吧？如果你基本上为数据中心每兆瓦支付 500 亿美元，那么在某些短期合同上你几乎几乎不到一年就能回本，这相当相当令人兴奋。
Now if we kind of look at Nebia's recent earnings, they did share kind of where the pricing are of certain contracts. They mentioned that their typical contracts are about 20 million per megawatt deals and these are less than 2-year payback period and they're starting to come online right now.
If you are choosing long-term or short-term contracts, short-term contracts are actually sitting at around 40 over $40 million per megawatt, which is extremely extremely strong, right?
If you're pretty much paying what 50 billion per me uh per megawatt of data centers, you have nearly nearly a year payback on some of these short-term contracts, which is pretty pretty exciting.
所以，这些定价，我不认为一定是新消息。能真正看到结果和数字是好事，但我们之前从管理层的沟通中确实听到过，价格上涨在持续。现在，能看到这一点成为现实是很好的。而且我相信在财报期间，他们也谈到了某些定价措施从 10 月开始生效。
So, these pricings, I don't think should be necessarily new news. It's good to actually see the results and the numbers, but we did hear from management's prior communication that price increasing was continuing.
Now, it is great to kind of see this play out. And I do believe during the earnings, they also talked about certain pricing effectiveness starting in October.
而且看到每兆瓦定价上涨一个不错的幅度是很好的，对吧？短期产能超过 4000 万美元。如果我们继续看到供需平衡，对吧，在我们拥有多少算力和需要多少算力之间，你就会继续看到定价不断上涨、上涨、再上涨。
只要存在价值。而这正是让我更兴奋的地方。如果你愿意为每兆瓦支付 4000 万美元，这意味着你赚的钱要多得多，无论是作为一家销售这些 token 的 AI 公司，你以更高的价值出售这些 token。
也许你以每兆瓦 7000 万美元的价格出售它们。所以，即使价格上涨也是合理的。另一件事是，如果数据 AI 公司能够以虚高的价格出售 token，那也是因为购买这些 token 的人正在获得或得到某种形式的好处，无论他们在做什么。
我知道我们听说过金融机构，从他们为 token 向 AI 公司支付的每兆瓦 7000 万美元中，他们可能每兆瓦赚取超过 1 亿美元，对吧？所以只要终端客户仍然能够从这些 token 中获得巨大的投资回报，我就相信这种动态会持续下去，而这种动态对 NEO cloud 领域极其看涨。
And it is great to see kind of the pricing per megawatt to go up a nice amount, right? Over 40 million for short-term capacity. And if we continue to see the supply demand in balance, right, between how much compute we have and how much compute is needed, you're going to continue to see pricings go up and up and up.
As long as there is value. And that's what it's it to me gets me more excited. If you're willing to pay 40 million per megawatt, it means you're making a lot more money as in either either if you're a AI company selling those tokens, you're selling those tokens at a higher value.
Maybe you're selling them at 70 million per megawatt. So, it makes sense even if the prices increases. And the other thing is if data AI companies are able to sell tokens at an inflated price as well, it's because the person that's buying those tokens is receiving or or is getting a form of benefit whatever they're doing.
I know we've heard financial institutions out of those 70 million per megawatts that they pay the AI companies for token, they're probably making over a 100red million in per megawatt, right?
So as long as the end customer is still able to pull dramatic form of return of investments from those tokens then I do believe this dynamic is going to continue and this dynamic is extremely bullish for the NEO cloud space.
所以这里相当相当令人兴奋，因为我相信我们会在其他所有人身上看到同样的轨迹。
So pretty pretty exciting here because I believe we're going to see this same trajectory across everybody else.
这个频道对 $NBIS 的历次判断
Jose Najarro Stocks 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。