奈飞在每股60美元时值得买入,在保守假设下预计19.9%的复合增长率,但如果下一份财报令人失望,股价可能迅速下跌。
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接下来,我们来看奈飞。这是第七个持仓。这是一个16,000美元的仓位,34,000美元的收益。奈飞目前交易价格为每股80美元。我为这家公司设定的买入目标价是60美元。如果奈飞是第一家达到其买入目标价的公司,它将获得额外的10,000美元。如果我们回顾奈飞何时达到60美元,那已经有一段时间了。所以,投资者通常对奈飞感到兴奋。他们喜欢这家公司,但最近你可以看到它处于下跌趋势。所以,我确实相信,如果投资者因为下一次财报而对奈飞真的感到失望,无论出于什么原因,我们可能会看到股价迅速下跌。我们以前在奈飞身上见过这种情况。
Next up, we get to Netflix. This is holding number seven. It's a $16,000 position, $34,000 in gains. Netflix currently trades at $80 per share. The buy-in target I'm setting for this company is $60. If Netflix is the first company to reach its buyin target, it'll earn the additional $10,000. If we look back at when Netflix has reached $60, it's been some time. So, investors have generally been enthused about Netflix. They've liked the company, but recently you can see that it's in a downtrend. So, I do believe there's a chance if investors get really soured on Netflix with their next earnings report for whatever reason, we could see the stock drop rapidly. We've seen it before with Netflix.
现在,如果我们从数学上看这些假设会是什么样子,如果我们假设奈飞的每股收益将以16%的速度增长,这在我认为它实际会增长的水平中属于低端。我相信它会高得多,但这是一个更温和、更保守的假设。它的每股收益增长16%。对于一家具有这种质量、这种利润率、这种增长概况、这种TAM的公司,我认为合适的倍数是24,然后当我们看这些假设,以每股60美元买入,意味着我们将获得19.9%的复合增长率,20%的复合年增长率将是不可思议的,这将是我投资组合中任何股票中最高的预期前瞻复合增长率之一,但请记住,就像其他任何股票一样,无论哪一只先达到目标,那就是我将投入那10,000美元的地方。我为这家公司设定的买入目标价是60美元。
Now, if we look at the assumptions of what this would look like just mathematically, if we assume that Netflix is going to grow earnings per share at 16%, this is on the low end of where I think it's actually going to grow. I believe it will be much higher, but this is a more moderate conservative assumption. It grows EPS at 16%. The appropriate multiple for a company of this caliber with this margin this growth profile this TAM I believe is a 24 and then when we look at those assumptions buying it at $60 per share would mean that we get a 19.9% compounded growth rate a 20% kagger would be incredible this would be one of the highest projected forward compounded growth rates of any stock in my portfolio but remember just like any of these other stocks it's whatever one gets there first that's one that I'm going to deploy the $10,000 to. The buy-in target I'm setting for this company is $60.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。