Netflix 在下跌 40% 后是好的买入标的；预计未来 5 年每年回报 10-15%，因为风险可控且存在潜在收购兴趣。

Today we have veteran “Fools,” Jason Hall and Rick Monarez, to evaluate a traditional favorite stock on a 1 to 10 scale, which is now close to its 52-week low at the time of recording this episode. It's Netflix stock, and its symbol is "NFLX".

We will try to determine if it is a good time to buy some shares. We will start by examining Netflix's business strengths, including factors such as industry and competition. Yes, did the late fees incurred from Reed Hastings' rental of "Apollo 13" really give birth to Netflix more than two decades ago? No no. This has been largely refuted as mere media propaganda. However, Hastings and his team created a remarkable local distribution system for DVDs , shocking the world with a radical 180-degree shift towards live streaming about 20 years ago. With approximately 325 million paying subscribers worldwide, it is a leading company with the advantages of scalability. I love invisible trenches , and I can't lie, but it's still a highly competitive market.

Yes, I think what's interesting to me about Netflix is this: it's a company that started as a game-changer in video rentals, changed itself by moving into live streaming, but also made another huge transformative move by shifting from buying other people's content to building its own and taking on a huge amount of new risk. And she succeeded every time she did it. That's why I gave it an eight, but it may be heading downwards. It's one thing to be in the driver's seat of this content trends bus, but people are heading to other stops, such as short-form content, and there are many different ways people consume content. Can Netflix do a fourth season? Time will tell, but I believe the company is in good hands to be able to continue to keep up with customer trends.

I choose to believe that Reed Hastings did indeed have a delay charge, but it wasn't " Apollo 13," it was something like "Encino Man" or something similar, and he's simply too embarrassed to admit it . In terms of management, Grade 10 is Warren Buffett, and Grade 1 is Homer Simpson. Once again , you both chose number 8, Rick. Yes, Hastings stepped down as co- CEO three years ago. In June of this year, he relinquished his position as chairman of the board. Netflix is still in good hands. Ted Sarandos, who has been head of content at Netflix for 26 years, was promoted by Hastings to co- CEO six years ago to be in a position to lead the company as he does today. Content is king, and Sarandos is considered one of the most powerful figures in Hollywood as a gatekeeper to hundreds of millions of homes. So, he's serving as co- CEO again, this time with Greg Peters, and while I'm not always a fan of the co-CEO structure , they have an 85% employee approval rating on Glassdoor, which isn't bad. I'm excited that "Happy Gilmore 2" is coming.

Yes, I mean that Sarandos and King have been a big part of Netflix culture for decades. And I think that losing the Warner Bros. deal to Paramount is, for me, a victory because it proves that discipline is more important than vanity. And I think that's one of the things that the role of co-CEO achieves , where there are checks and balances in an industry full of big egos of people who all want to be the biggest. Disruption and a willingness to change are part of the company's DNA. These are the people who built it. But the bottom line is that Netflix, as much as it is disruptive and innovative, is not in a hurry . They do not rush into making big, bad decisions that the company cannot reverse. That 85% employee satisfaction rate... I mean, obviously the stock price has gone up, so that helps you get a good valuation over time . But ultimately, it is a diligent and hardworking company. They are...they are...they are. Yes. They're not... You work at Netflix, so an 85% satisfaction rate is really impressive.

Regarding the financial situation , a score of 10 means a stronghold , and a score of 1 means a disaster. Jason gave seven, Rick, you're at six. Yes, Netflix has been profitable for 23 consecutive years. Most broadcasting companies are just beginning to grasp how to achieve this. Growth is strong, but it is slowing down. Netflix's targeted 11.7% revenue growth rate is its weakest annual growth in three years. Add to that a debt-laden budget, and I'm keeping my least enthusiastic rating, a six, for this category.

Yes, even with everything Rick said, I agree with him, but even with the slowdown in growth, the profit margin profile is still really impressive . The debt is large, but I believe it is also manageable. As much as the debt has grown, the company also has huge amounts of cash on its balance sheet , and enjoys impressive cash flows as well.

Okay, Jason. Let's talk about the magic question, evaluation. How will Netflix stock perform over the next five years ? How safe is it ? A score of 10 means something certain, and a score of 1 means a lottery ticket. Yes, I believe that two things can be true at the same time. The company faces an even more competitive environment than ever before in the future. As the media mentioned, there are short video platforms such as TikTok and Instagram , and to some extent YouTube as well. There is a shift in the places where people go to consume content. This makes competition more difficult for Netflix. That's why my safety rating is six, but I think the assessment takes those risks into account, and the opportunity is really good for what is still a great business, even in a changing landscape. Therefore, I think a 10 to 15% figure is perfectly reasonable for what the company can achieve over the next half of the decade.

Yes, I chose 10 to 15 % as a return for 5 years. So, if Netflix is trading at new record highs while its growth slows, and is considering rolling out ad-supported packages outside the US as it is doing now, I would be less optimistic here. However, the company's stock has fallen by more than 40% over the past year. Starting points are important. Therefore, I believe that even with the growth difficulties, Netflix can outperform the market from this point. My security level is seven. Not because I think Netflix is invincible. But because if she continues to suffer, someone will take possession of her. Given the acquisition premium we saw in the cases of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount, as an investor I see this as a win-win scenario if you look at the safety net.

Thanks to Rick and thanks to Jason. They gave Netflix a strong overall score of 7.3 out of 10. This is close to the average score Netflix has received on previous scoreboards. Rick, I know you were optimistic about Netflix and Disney. Now, if you are going to invest new money, and you have no prior ownership. Does either of them represent a buying opportunity for you, and which one would you choose?

I think it's between the two at the moment, and again, I'll probably remain optimistic about these two companies forever. I think Netflix right now... I mean, Disney has also been badly hurt over the past year, but I think they have more to prove. As for Netflix, I think it's just a matter of a rapid shift in momentum. This is not going to happen to a company like Disney, which is growing at a snail's pace and living in a state of flux, you know. I mean, I like the new CEO, but I prefer Netflix between the two.