奈飞(NFLX)是核心长期持有标的;尽管存在消费者转向短视频的风险,但其强劲的单位经济性和不断增长的内容库使其当前82美元股价相对于127美元公允价值被低估。
逐段跳播
接下来我要重点介绍的一只股票,是作为买入并永远持有的候选,那就是流媒体领导者Netflix。Netflix花了十多年时间学习如何以经济高效的方式创作消费者喜欢观看的内容。
The next stock I will highlight as a candidate to buy and hold forever is Netflix, the leader in live streaming. Netflix has spent more than a decade learning how to create content that consumers love to watch and to do so in a cost-effective way.
当然,任何工作室都能制作出精彩的内容,花数亿美元拍一部人人都爱的电影,但你能在继续制作预算数亿美元的电影的同时赚钱吗?这就是难点。
Of course, any studio can produce great content and spend hundreds of millions of dollars to make a movie that everyone loves, but can you make money while continuing to produce that movie with a budget of hundreds of millions? This is the difficult part.
我经常谈到这一点,我之前也提到过我书中的内容。前两章讲的是客户价值主张和单位经济学,它们是相辅相成的。向客户提供优质产品并以非常低廉的价格出售很容易。消费者会喜欢。这会产生可观的销售额。
但你能持续这样做吗?你能在保持盈利以维持业务运转的同时做到这一点吗?这就是棘手之处,同时做好这两件事,而Netflix几乎已经做到了完美。
I always talk about this, and I mentioned something about my book earlier. The first two chapters deal with customer value proposition and unit economics, and they go hand in hand. It's easy to offer a great product to customers and then sell it at a very cheap price. Consumers will love that. It will generate significant sales. But can you do that sustainably? Can you do that while still making a profit that keeps your business afloat? This is the tricky thing, doing both things together, and it's something Netflix has almost perfected.
它以某种方式制作内容,使其营业利润率超过30%,并且这一数字还在不断上升。
It produces content in a way that has allowed it to achieve an operating profit margin of over 30%, which is constantly increasing.
这一特点会随着时间的推移而增强,因为Netflix今天制作的内容,在5年、10年、20年甚至30年后观看,其乐趣都不会减少。
This feature is enhanced over time, because the content that Netflix produces today will be no less enjoyable to watch 5, 10, 20 or even 30 years from now.
想象一下,5年、10年或20年后,新订阅用户第一次发现《怪奇物语》。或者想象一下,5年、20年或30年后,新订阅用户第一次发现《鱿鱼游戏》系列,对吧?
Imagine new subscribers discovering "Stranger Things" for the first time 5, 10 or 20 years from now. Or imagine new subscribers discovering the "Squid Game" series for the first time 5, 20, or 30 years from now, right?
因此,娱乐价值不会随时间推移而减少,而且它年复一年地积累其资产库。她继续为她的作品集添加越来越多精彩的内容。当新订户在5年后加入Netflix时,会有更多他喜欢的内容。10年后,会有更多内容,而且这会不断累积,因为Netflix制作的内容比几乎所有其他工作室都更好,数量大且成本效益高。
Therefore, the entertainment value does not diminish over time, and it builds its library of assets year after year. She continues to add more and more great content to her portfolio. When a new subscriber joins Netflix 5 years from now, there will be more content that he will love . After 10 years, there will be more content, and this will accumulate because Netflix produces better content than almost any other studio, in large quantities and in a cost-effective way.
这种竞争优势对于任何其他服务提供商来说都难以复制。
This competitive advantage will be difficult for any other service providers to replicate.
我认为Netflix面临的最大风险是消费者行为的重大转变。我们已经看到,注意力持续时间较短的年轻一代正在转向TikTok、YouTube Shorts和Instagram Reels上的短视频内容。
The biggest risk I see facing Netflix is a major shift in consumer behavior. We are already seeing that the younger generation with shorter attention spans is turning to short-form content on TikTok, YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels.
这是我认为Netflix长期面临的最大威胁,而且这只是逐渐向这个方向转变。随着这一代人年龄增长并成为内容的主要消费者,他们将继续倾向于短视频内容,而Netflix在这种内容形式上没有竞争优势。
This is the biggest threat I see to Netflix in the long term, and it's just a gradual shift towards it. As this generation ages and becomes the primary consumers of content, they will continue to gravitate towards short-form content, a form of content in which Netflix has no competitive advantage.
所以,评级也非常有吸引力,尽管这不是我最看重的东西。Netflix股票目前交易价格为每股82美元,我计算出的公允价值为127美元。
So, the rating is also very attractive, although it is not the most important thing I look at . Netflix stock is trading at $82 per share, and I have calculated a fair value for it of $127.
Netflix是我投资组合中持有的另一只股票。它是我最大的金融中心之一,我相信它是我的第二大持仓。如果它保持在这些水平并维持很长时间,我有兴趣在未来几年增加更多。
Netflix is another stock I own in my investment portfolio. It is one of my largest financial centers, and I believe it is my second largest. I am interested in adding more over the years if it stays at these levels and is maintained for a very long time.
他说在等什么
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。