NFLX 估值偏低，可能已超卖；直播活动与院线发行是可改善增长的两个抓手。

You know, Netflix has been one of those names that it just hasn't been the king of streaming in terms of how shares have been viewed now as they were in the past. Yeah, I think that this is one that we've been tracking for a little while now where we've seen consumer demand growth just kind of slow down a bit and this tracks in revenue as well.

I think revenue growth last quarter came in about 13% higher year-over-year. It was nearly 18% higher year-over-year two quarters ago and the forecast for this upcoming quarter is a bit lower than last. Whenever we look at consumer demand for Netflix, we have that down by about 4% year-over-year, but I will say Netflix today, whenever we look at this, this is kind of the opposite of what we were watching when we looked at Casey's yesterday. This is an instance where now we have a valuation that is much lower and even though demand isn't growing at the pace that it was growing, we're we're starting to ask questions of at what point is this a name that is still a streaming giant, though it may not be the king it once was that is a bit oversold at this point.

And so, this is one where overall the trend for Netflix, while you see that -4% year-over-year, um, that actually is better than it was last quarter. We had it down about 10% year-over-year.

And it's interesting because we're starting to see Netflix pull some other levers. I think that Netflix is airing a big NFL game tomorrow. Um, there's a a large fight at the Sphere in a couple of weeks. So, it's starting to lean into live events, but it still doesn't have that big live event exposure that some other large players and streamers do have and we really see that drive retention.

Um, and another lever that's interesting that's been in the news lately is Netflix's strategy toward theatrical releases. This is something that we'll really be watching over the next year as it plans some extended theatrical releases and it's really leaning into the premium experience. I think Narnia will be released in IMAX and we saw that do really well over the last summer. Consumers willing to pay a bit more for that experience. So, this will be something that Netflix will also give a lot of insight into. So, I think it'll be interesting to see how Netflix executes this, if that can help kind of drive some of that growth and then thus drive some streamer some users into its platform after.

But, for now I think that the story, as you mentioned, is it's a bit of a maturing market um, and Netflix is still trying to pull those levers to keep those users on board because as we know whenever we look at Netflix while advertising it does have an advertising segment. I think it's expected to double to 3 billion for the full year. That's still only a fraction of its overall user base. You know, those those recurring revenue that subscription is really what drives its overall revenue.

So we'll see. I think that these live events will certainly help and could be a temporary boost and and also will be very fun to watch how these theatrical releases are rolled out.

And Netflix, you know, at a high level I think that I just haven't heard it hasn't had the virality that it once had with some of its content releases.

So, like any expansion in this area can help drive that retention and we know I think there's a stat over the last 5 years that six of the 10 largest new member sign-up days have been driven by live events. So, I think that this is an area where Netflix can potentially gain a bit more exposure. As you mentioned though, at a cost.

So, um, for now for us, I think that when we look at this name, you know, we've seen the stock pull back pretty significantly from um, 52-week highs. I think it's down almost 40% from those highs. And so, this is something where we start to say, "Okay, this is still a company that has millions of users, that still has an advertising unit that is really small as a portion of total revenue and is growing the fastest perhaps. So, I think that there are still levers that Netflix can pull for growth and and we're certainly watching those catalysts right now, especially where the stock is trading because um, this is one that seems to be starting to show signs of improvement and some of these live events and some of the other um, creative theatrical releases could help kind of boost those user numbers, too."