蔚来是一个买入机会；但由于汽车行业风险和早期波动性，信心较低。
逐段跳播
蔚来公布销售额同比增长69%，与去年同期相比。这家中国电动汽车公司还报告称，由于制造其车辆所用零部件价格上涨，成本有所上升。
New announced a 69% increase in sales compared to the same quarter last year. The Chinese electric vehicle company also reported higher costs due to rising prices of components used in manufacturing its vehicles.
尽管面临这些挑战，该公司的汽车利润率正接近20%，这在整个行业中属于最佳水平之一。然而，这一切是否使蔚来股票成为一个买入机会？
Despite these challenges, the company's car profit margins are approaching 20%, which is among the best in the entire industry. However, does all this make NEO stock a buying opportunity?
蔚来交付量在2026年第二季度达到峰值。与去年同期相比，这代表了49%的增长。新的管理团队在提升其三个品牌的销售方面做得非常出色。
NIO deliveries peaked in the second quarter of 2026. This represents a 49% increase compared to the same quarter last year . The "NEW" management team has done an excellent job in boosting sales across its three brands.
较新的品牌Firefly和Onfo为消费者提供更低价格的选择，而蔚来则是一个更高端、更精致的产品，正在获得显著的市场份额。
The newer brands Firefly and Onfo offer lower-priced options for consumers, while Neo is a more premium and sophisticated product that is gaining a significant market share.
第二季度汽车利润率达到18.5%，而去年同期为10.3%。这是我在初创公司和成长型公司中喜欢看到的结果。在扩大业务范围的同时提高其利润率。这向我证明它受益于规模经济。这也向我证明它处于持续学习阶段。
他们在自己所做的事情上越来越好。他们正在降低客户服务成本，并展现出显著的进步。
Automotive profit margins reached 18.5% in the second quarter, compared to 10.3% in the same quarter last year. This is the kind of outcome I like to see in startups and growing companies. Increasing its profit margins in conjunction with expanding its business scope. This proves to me that it benefits from economies of scale. It also proves to me that she is in a continuous learning phase . They are getting better at what they do. They are reducing customer service costs and showing remarkable progress.
该公司的营业亏损改善了十倍以上，2026年第二季度营业亏损为5120万。亏损是去年同期亏损的十倍以上。然而，该公司在净利润方面仍在亏损。其盈利能力波动不定。一个季度实现盈利，然后连续几个季度在净利润上亏损。因此，它尚未成为一家持续盈利的公司。
The company's operating losses improved by more than tenfold, with an operating loss of 51.2 million in the second quarter of 2026. The loss was more than ten times what it was in the same quarter of the previous year . However, the company is still losing money in its net profits. Its profitability is fluctuating. Profitability is achieved in one quarter, then money is lost in net profit for several consecutive quarters. Therefore, it has not yet become a consistently profitable company.
因此，查看资产负债表以了解有多少现金可用于吸收进一步亏损是很重要的。截至2026年6月30日，蔚来拥有84亿美元的强劲资产负债表，而亏损为5000万美元。这给了她一个非常长的时间窗口来运作。
在可预见的未来，它可以继续在净利润上亏损这个数额，而不会耗尽资产负债表上的现金。
For this reason, it is important to look at the balance sheet to see how much cash is available to absorb further losses. NEO has a strong balance sheet of US$8.4 billion as of June 30, 2026, compared to losses of US$50 million. This gives her a very long window of time to work. It can continue to lose this amount in its net profits for the foreseeable future without running out of cash on its balance sheet.
然而，在公司公布这些业绩后，蔚来股价略有下跌。最重要的原因是前景以及公司在下一季度将面临的情况。管理团队表示，将在即将公布的季度业绩中报告的7月和8月交付量分别为36,000辆和35,800辆。
However, NEO's stock fell slightly after the company announced these results . The most important reason is the outlook and what awaits the company in the next quarter. The management team stated that deliveries for July and August, which will be reported in the upcoming quarterly results, amounted to 36,000 and 35,800 units respectively.
该公司的投资者曾希望7月和8月有更好的表现，以及下一季度有更强的增长，但考虑到宏观经济逆风，我认为公司能够继续实现这一增长水平实际上相当令人印象深刻。
Investors in the company had hoped for better performance during July and August and stronger growth for the next quarter, but given the macroeconomic headwinds , I think the fact that the company has continued to achieve this level of growth is actually quite impressive.
蔚来一直是全球最具创新性的汽车品牌之一，不断推出新车型，而且这似乎不会很快停止。
NIO has been one of the most innovative car brands around the world, constantly launching new models, and it seems that this will not stop anytime soon.
7月9日，公司推出了全新的五座蔚来ES8，并于次日开始交付。蔚来在将吸引消费者兴趣的产品推向市场方面有着悠久的历史。事实上，这也是投资者对蔚来有些保留的原因之一，因为他们在研发以及销售和营销费用上花费巨大。
每次他们生产新车型，都会产生大量成本将其推向市场。
On July 9, the company launched the all-new, five-seater Neo ES8, and deliveries began the very next day . Neo has a long history of bringing products to market that capture consumers' interest. In fact, this was one of the reasons why investors felt somewhat reserved towards Neo, because they spend a lot on research and development, and on sales and marketing expenses. Every time they produce a new model, they incur a lot of costs to bring it to market.
但当然，客户喜欢它，消费者也喜欢它。人们购买新车的主要原因之一是新的创新、新产品、新设计、新颜色和新尺寸。否则，人们为什么要买新车？如今道路上的大多数汽车可以使用长达15万英里甚至超过20万英里，但人们在达到这些里程之前就更换汽车并购买新车，因为他们看到自己喜欢的新车型、喜欢的新颜色或更喜欢的设计，所以他们更换汽车并购买更新的车。
许多购买行为并非由必要性驱动，而是由消费者想要新东西的选择驱动。这是蔚来成功利用的一点。
But of course, customers love it, and consumers love it. One of the main reasons people buy a new car is the new innovation, the new product, the new design, the new colors, and the new size. Otherwise, why would people buy a new car? Most cars on the roads today can last their owners up to 150,000 miles or even more than 200,000 miles, but people replace their cars and buy newer ones before reaching those distances because they see a new model they like, a new color they like , or a design they prefer, so they replace their car and buy a newer one. Much of the purchasing activity is not driven by necessity, but rather by consumers' choice to want something new. This is something that Neo has successfully exploited.
对于第三季度，蔚来表示预计总交付量将在108,000至111,000辆之间。他们已经向我们提供了第三季度两个月的销售数据。只剩下一个月，即9月，他们预计9月售出的车辆数量将与此类似。
For the third quarter , New says it expects total deliveries to range between 108,000 and 111,000 vehicles. They have already provided us with sales figures for two months of the third quarter. Only one month remains, September, and they expect similar figures for units sold in September.
在我审阅的电话会议中，管理团队表示他们预计第四季度整个汽车行业将恢复增长。我不知道这是否属实。在我看来，影响第三季度汽车行业的逆风很可能持续到第四季度，但也许管理团队看到了我没有看到的东西。
中国市场可能有一些特定因素可能导致第四季度环比第三季度增长，但这些影响汽车销售的经济逆风，例如零部件成本上升、消费者因在各方面支出而导致可支配收入降低，从而减少了剩余收入，此外还有利率上升等等。
所有这些因素很可能持续到第四季度，除非全球地缘政治紧张局势发生根本性变化，而目前我看不到这样做的动力。
During the conference call that I reviewed, the management team stated that they expect the fourth quarter to return to growth for the automotive sector as a whole. I don't know if that's true. The headwinds affecting the automotive sector in the third quarter, in my opinion , are likely to continue into the fourth quarter, but perhaps the management team sees something that I do not. There may be something specific to the Chinese market that could lead to sequential growth in the fourth quarter compared to the third, but these economic headwinds affecting car sales, such as rising component costs, lower disposable income for consumers due to their spending on everything, which reduces surplus income , in addition to rising interest rates and others. All of these factors are likely to continue through the fourth quarter unless we see a radical change in geopolitical tensions around the world, something for which I see no incentive at the moment .
因此，在价格超过35万元人民币的类别中，“NEO”在中国乘用车市场排名第一。所以，在高端、更高价位的细分市场中，“NEO”正在获得较大的市场份额，目前占据第一的位置。
Therefore, "NEO" ranked first in the Chinese passenger car market for categories with prices exceeding 350,000 yuan. So, in the premium, higher-priced segment, "NEO" is gaining a large market share and now occupies the number one position.
与此同时，Firefly在中国高端小型车市场中已连续15个月保持市场份额第一。再次向管理团队致敬，他们研发和打造了消费者欣赏并渴望购买的汽车和品牌。
Meanwhile, Firefly has held the top spot in market share within China's premium small car market for 15 consecutive months. Once again , a salute to the management team for researching and developing cars and brands that consumers appreciate and are eager to buy.
管理层还指出，由于他们预期推向市场的大部分产品和品牌已经推出，研发支出正在减少。请记住，Firefly和Onfo是相对较新的品牌，因此他们不需要再次承担所有这些费用来将这些品牌推向市场。
他们已经完成了大部分艰苦的工作。管理层再次指出，研发成本的下降是由于该领域人员成本的下降，此外，设计和开发成本的下降主要源于不同的开发阶段和效率提升。
The administration also noted that research and development expenditures are decreasing as a result of the vast majority of products and brands they expect to deliver to the market being launched. Remember that Firefly and Onfo are relatively new brands , so they don't need to bear all those expenses again to bring these brands to market . They have already done most of the hard work. Once again, the management team points out that the decrease in research and development costs is due to the decline in personnel costs in this sector, in addition to the decrease in design and development costs resulting mainly from the different stages of development and efficiency improvements.
在今天的报告发布以及随后的股价下跌之后，NEO股票目前的远期市盈率为23.4。这是该股票根据这一估值指标交易多年来的最低、最便宜的水平。
Following today’s report and the subsequent price drop, NEO stock is now trading at a forward P/E ratio of 23.4. This is the lowest and cheapest level at which the stock has been trading according to this valuation metric for several years.
为了回答我在标题中提出的问题，我认为Neo股票是一个买入机会吗？我会说是的，但我对这一评估的信心程度较低。
To answer the question I posed in the title, do I think Neo stock is a buying opportunity? I would say yes, but my level of confidence in this assessment is low.
如你所知，汽车行业是我通常最不喜欢的行业之一。再加上全球地缘政治紧张局势，这些不利因素可能会在2026年继续对汽车行业产生更大的影响。除此之外，NIO是一个新兴品牌，仍处于增长的早期阶段，而成长型公司具有更大的波动性和风险。
然而，如果你是一位寻求高回报潜力并愿意承担高于平均风险的投资者，Neo可能适合你投资。
As you already know, the automotive industry is one of the industries I generally dislike the most . Added to this are global geopolitical tensions, and these headwinds are likely to continue to affect the automotive industry even more in 2026. Added to all this is that NIO is an emerging brand still in its early stages of growth, and with growth companies there is greater volatility and risk . However, if you are an investor looking for the potential to achieve high returns and are willing to take above-average risks , Neo may be a suitable investment for you.
这个频道对 $NIO 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。