对于高风险投资者而言，Nio 值得买入，因其估值具有吸引力（远期市盈率 28.3，股价 3.60 美元，而合理价值为 8.70 美元）。
逐段跳播
NEO 在最近一个已完成的季度中，营收同比增长 69%。更重要的是，这些销售还伴随着更高的利润率，其整车利润率提升至 18.5%。
NEO reported 69% growth in its most recently completed quarter compared to the same quarter last year. What's more, these sales are coming with higher margins as its vehicle margin improved to 18.5%.
对于 NEO 来说，这是令人印象深刻的业绩，它是中国最高产的电动汽车公司之一。尽管如此，回顾过去五年，其股价仍下跌了近 90%。而且，我曾警告投资者，当年 NEO 的股价过于昂贵。
而早在今年，我也一直警告投资者，NEO 的估值过高。但最近，我将 NEO 的评级上调为买入。这是我第一次将一家电动汽车公司上调为买入机会。那么，在我一个多月前做出那次上调之后，我是否仍然认为 NEO 是一只买入机会？
These are impressive results for NEO, one of China's most prolific electric vehicle companies. Still, the share price is down almost 90% when looking back five years. And you know, I've been warning investors that NEO stock had been too expensive back in those days.
And as early as this year, I've been warning investors that Neoto was too expensive. But recently, I upgraded NEO stock to a buy. That's the first electric vehicle company I've upgraded to a buying opportunity ever.
So, do I still think NEO stock is a buying opportunity after I made that upgrade a little over a month ago?
所以，你可以看到 NEO 股价在这里的价格表现。过去五年它下跌了超过 90%。目前股价为每股 3.60 美元。在 2022 年、2021 年，这只股票曾高于 40 美元，接近每股 45 美元。
So, you can see the price performance here for NEO stock. It's down over 90% over the previous 5 years. It's now at $3.60 per share. Uh in 2022, 2021, this stock was above 40, approaching $45 per share.
当然，在这整个过程中，我一直在关注这家公司。我一直警告投资者，在那些价格下，它太贵了。这家公司前景很好，未来非常出色，它交付了很棒的汽车。我的意思是，最近的一款，我相信它叫 ES9 SUV。
这是一款了不起的车。技术比你在美国看到的很多车都要好，但价格却更低。
Of course, all throughout this time, I've been following the company. I've been warning investors that at those prices, it was too expensive. The company had great prospects. Its future was excellent.
It delivered great cars. I mean, the most recent, I believe it's called the ES9 SUV. It's an amazing car. Better technology than a lot of the cars you'll see in the United States, but at a lower price.
很多中国汽车公司能够成长到挑战美国和德国汽车公司，并在全球范围内获得可观的市场份额，这本身就是一项了不起的成就。尽管世界上大多数政府都在强烈地试图把这些中国汽车挡在门外，因为本地的汽车公司无法与这些来自中国的公司竞争。
平心而论，这些公司从中国政府获得了大量补贴，使其运营更具成本效益。因此，更低的生产成本帮助这些公司在海外竞争中获得市场份额，而在海外销售正在下滑。但中国制造的这些汽车的出口正在蓬勃发展，NEO 正是受益于这轮繁荣的公司之一。
It's just an incredible feat that a lot of these Chinese car companies have been able to grow to challenge US and German automotive companies and gain significant market share worldwide.
Even though most governments around the world are strongly strongly trying to keep these Chinese cars out because their local car companies can't compete against these companies from China.
To be fair, these companies receive significant subsidies from the Chinese government to make their operations more cost effective. And so that lower cost of production is helping competitively for these companies to gain market share outside of China where sales are declining.
But exports of these cars made in China are booming and NEO is one of the companies that's benefiting from that boom.
NEO 的销售额在过去 12 个月期间飙升至 163 亿美元。这高于不久前的 100 亿美元，也高于 2020 年的仅 20 亿美元。可以看到这家公司通过快速推出和引入新车型实现了多快的扩张。
它们的创新速度比大多数其他公司都要快。它们不仅推出了更新的汽车和更新的车型，还推出了更新的品牌。Firefly 和 Envo 品牌是相比 NEO 定价更低的品牌，而 NEO 是一个更豪华的品牌。
这不仅在中国，而且在这些汽车可及的几乎每一个市场都取得了成功。
Neo's sales soared to $16.3 billion over the trailing 12-month period. That's up from $10 billion a little while ago and up from just $2 billion in 2020. And see how quickly this company has expanded by offering and introducing new car models rapidly.
Their pace of innovation has been faster than most other companies. Not only are they offering newer cars and newer models, but they also brought forth newer brands. The Firefly and the Envo brand are lower priced brands compared to Neo, which is a more luxury brand.
And this has been successful rolling out not just in China, but in nearly every market that these cars are available.
这是因为在竞争方面，我是在整体汽车行业的角度来看汽车的。当我对其中一些车进行比价时，它们价格更低，而且看起来比很多竞争对手更好。不过，我还没能试驾过 NEO 的任何一款车，但仅从外观来看，它们看起来确实令人印象深刻。
And it's because competitively, you know, I'm looking at cars in the car industry overall. When I comparison shop some of these cars, they're at lower prices and they look better than a lot of their competition.
Now, I haven't been able to test drive any of these uh cars from Neo, but just from the looks of things, they look really impressive.
正如我提到的，这些销售并非以牺牲利润率为代价。事实上，利润率正在大幅改善。这些销售是创新的结果。NEO 在研发上投入了大量资金。这就是为什么它们能在如此短的时间内向市场推出这么多新车型，以及在 NEO 之上再推出两个新品牌。
而且这些车型大多有效地进入了市场。它们获得了市场份额，赢得了消费者的认可。人们欣赏 NEO 推向市场的汽车。它们的利润率已改善至 -3.65%。65%。这高于 2025 年的 -30% 和 2024 年的 -35%。
And as I mentioned, these sales are not coming at the expense of margins. In fact, margins are improving dramatically. These sales are coming as a result of innovation. Neo has spent considerable sums of money in research and development.
That's why they've been able to just bring to market so many new models and two new brands on top of Neo in such a short amount of time. And most of these models have hit the marketplace effectively.
They've gained market share. They've gained consumer adoption. People appreciate the cars that Neo's bringing to the marketplace. Their margins have improved to -3.65%. 65%. That's up from -30% in 2025 and -35% in 2024.
因此，这些销售是来自客户有机需求的结果，因为公司推出了有吸引力且定价有竞争力的车型。当然，最近形势对它更为有利，因为中东战争以及俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的战争导致油价飙升，使电动汽车相比内燃机汽车更具吸引力。
So sales are coming as a result of organic demand from customers as the company introduces models that are attractive and competitively priced. Of course, the situation is working in its favor more recently as the war in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine has caused oil prices to surge, making electric vehicles all the much more attractive compared to internal combustion engine vehicles.
NEO 有一个有趣的客户价值主张，那就是你可以更换电池，这样大约 5 分钟就能让你重新上路，而其他电动汽车可能需要 30 到 45 分钟来充电。因此，这也一直是一个有吸引力的客户价值主张。
能够租用而不拥有电池，使用电池而不拥有电池，是另一个有吸引力的价值主张。
Neo has an interesting customer value proposition in that you can swap the battery and so that gets you moving in about 5 minutes compared to other electric vehicles that might take you 30 45 minutes to charge.
And so that's also been a compelling customer value proposition. The ability to rent and not own the battery, to use the battery and not own the battery has been another compelling value proposition.
所以，当然，我谈论 NEO 的这些事情已经好几年了。那么，为什么我最近才上调 NEO 的评级？是估值。这一直是我对很多这类公司、这些深受散户投资者欢迎的令人兴奋的公司所谈论的。
多年来我一直警告投资者 NEO 的原因之一就是估值。投资者可能看着下跌的股价，心想这是一个逢低买入的机会，但直到最近，估值对我来说从来都没有真正说得通。
So, of course, I've been talking about these things with NEO for several years. So, why did I only upgrade NEO stock recently? It's valuation. That's what I've always talked about with a lot of these companies, exciting companies that are very popular with retail investors.
One of the reasons why I've warned investors about NEO over the many years is because of valuation. Investors may have looked at the falling stock price and thought to themselves that it was a buying opportunity on the dip, but the valuation never really made sense to me until recently.
估值已经改善。目前其远期市盈率为 28.3。这是这只股票在其历史上交易过的最低估值。所以，终于，你能够以有吸引力的估值买入 NEO 的股票，同时营收正在飙升，宏观经济背景有利，油价更高，电动汽车需求上升——电动汽车在购买时可能比内燃机汽车更贵，但随后你能获得运营成本节省，而且随着全球油价和汽油价格飙升，运营成本的节省现在甚至更多。
And the valuation has improved. It's now trading at a forward price to earnings of 28.3. This is the cheapest this stock has traded for ever in its history. So, finally, you're able to buy NEO stock at a compelling valuation with revenues surging. a favorable macroeconomic backdrop with higher oil prices, increasing demand for electric vehicles, which can be more expensive than internal combustion engine vehicles on purchase.
But then you get the operating cost savings and the operating cost savings are even more now that oil prices and gas prices have surged worldwide.
同样，当我用我的现金流折现模型来看估值时，它在 3.60 美元、接近其 52 周低点时显得更具吸引力。事实上，接近该公司有史以来的最低纪录。目前它远低于我对该业务 8.70 美元的合理价值估计。
Similarly, when I looked at valuation using my discounted cash flow model, it looked more attractive at $3.60, near its 52- week low. In fact, near record lows for the company ever.
It's now well below my fair value estimate for the business at $8.70.
所以，这些就是促使我将 NEO 的评级上调为买入的因素，这在我所关注的所有电动汽车公司中对我来说是第一次。NEO 是第一家获得买入上调的公司，因为多年来我一直警告投资者电动汽车行业的问题。
它被过度炒作。对电动汽车消费者需求的估计被严重高估。我从 2020 年起就一直这么说。因此，市场需要时间来调整，这些股票的估值需要时间来适应市场的现实。所以现在我觉得，对于 NEO 来说，这些调整已经发生，其股价在过去五年下跌了 90%。
So this are these are the factors that caused me to upgrade NEO stock to a buy in a first ever for me among all of the EV companies that I'm following. NEO is the first one that earned an upgrade to a buy because I've been warning investors for several years about the EV industry.
It was overhyped. The estimates for consumer demand for electric vehicles were significantly overestimated. And I've been saying that since 2020. And so there needed to be time for the market to adjust, for the valuations of these stocks to adjust to the realities of the marketplace.
And so now I feel like those adjustments have occurred for NEO with the share price down 90% over the previous 5 years.
所以我要重申，我认为这终于是一个买入机会，适合那些风险承受能力高的投资者，因为这里仍然是有风险的生意。它是你能买到的最具风险的股票之一。所以在这里你必须要有很高的风险承受能力。但对于你们这些……来说，估值是有吸引力的。
So I will reiterate that I think finally this is a buying opportunity for investors that have a high risk tolerance because this is still risky business here. It's one of the riskiest stocks you can buy.
So you've got to have a high risk tolerance here. But the valuation is attractive for those of you that
这个频道对 $NIO 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。