Nike目前因竞争缺乏吸引力，但低估值（价格约40）和潜在的私募股权收购提供了上行空间；现在买入的下行风险低于在其表现良好时买入。
逐段跳播
这条视频里关于 $NKE 说的每一段，按说话顺序排列。点任意一行，上面的视频跳到那一刻。
我们讨论了耐克。我们也将提及你对耐克极度负面的评论，这与之前的情况截然相反。当股价高得多时，只有正面评论。这就是人类心理的运作方式。
We discussed Nike. We'll also touch on your extremely negative comments on Nike, which is the opposite. When the stock price was much much higher, there were only positive comments. That's how the human psyche works.
有些人正在买入耐克。如果价格进一步下跌，总有人说他们会买更多。然后耐克在年轻人中表现良好。
Some were buying Nike. If it goes lower, some always say they will buy more. Then Nike going good with the young ones.
说到难看，耐克看起来糟透了。这些品牌不可能更差了。嗯，如果你想买什么东西，最好在40美元时买入，而不是在它看起来很棒时的160美元。所以，这也是一点。我并不是说这条评论有什么不对，这是一条很好的评论。
我只是说，在它看起来很难看、只剩下上涨空间而没有下跌空间时买入会更好。
Speaking of ugly, Nike, how it looks terrible. These brands could not look worse. Well, if you want to buy something, it's better to buy it at 40 than at 160 when it looked great. So, that's something. I'm not saying nothing wrong with the comment great comment here. I'm just saying it's better to buy when it looks ugly and there is only upside left than downside.
其他一些评论说我们年纪大了，不适合我们这种四十多岁的人，年轻人更喜欢I Show Speed之类的东西。有些人说他们会在更低的位置买入，但它曾在60美元，现在是40美元，然后人们总是推迟那些买入操作。
但彼得·林奇说过，你要在一家公司开始复苏并上涨时买入。所以现在它在40美元。你可能会等到它涨到50美元，然后从50美元持有到70美元。那可能是风险最小的做法。如果现在跌得更低，你就买入上涨趋势。
Some other comments we are getting older not for us 40 something dude the youngers are going for I show speed or something like that. Some say that they will buy lower but it was at 60 now it is 40 and then always people delay those buys but Peter Lynch said you buy a turnaround when it starts to go up. So now it's at 40. You might wait for it to get to 50 and then ride from 50 to 70. That might be the least risk. If it goes lower now, you buy the trend up.
当然，关键在于竞争。Nike、Puma、Omero。以前就是那样。现在我们有十几个这样的品牌。而且我们也不知道Michael Jordan是否还能扣篮。涉及觉醒文化之类的事情。
非常有趣。Michael Jordan，谁知道他是否还能扣篮。正如我们已经提到的，市场竞争巨大。所以，这也是个问题，中国有模仿者，但他们需要在营销上针对直男群体，诸如此类。
And then of course the key is competition. Nike, Pumac, Omero. It was that was that. Now we have a dozen of those brands. And also we don't know whether Michael Jordan can still dunk. Going woke things like that. Very interesting. Michael Jordan, who knows if he can still dunk. As we already said, huge competition in the market. So, that's something copycats in China, but they would need to go to straight people in the marketing, things like that.
在下跌过程中有一些有趣的评论。也许某些私募股权基金会在700亿美元市值时将其收购。也许它必须跌得更低。但对于我个人而言，最大的获利机会往往出现在某样东西看起来很糟糕的时候。对我来说，安全边际始终是私募股权的收购价，即市盈率10倍，因为他们支付的不会超过15倍，然后他们会等待糟糕的时期。
你可以获得一些安全边际。如果事态发展不顺，那么从那个篮子来看，情况就会变得非常非常糟糕。
Interesting comments inside in the decline. Perhaps some private equity will take it over at 70 billion. Perhaps it has to go lower. But the most money you can make is when something looks ugly. For me personally, margin of safety is always the private equity takeout which is at the P ratio of 10 because they will pay not more than 15 and then they will wait for ugly times. You can have some margin of safety. If things don't develop well then it gets very very ugly from the basket there.
耐克可能稍微便宜一点。但对我来说，这不是价值投资。
Nike perhaps is cheaper a little bit. But for me, this is not value investing.
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。