回避NKE：其转型面临激烈竞争与执行风险，而24倍往绩市盈率的估值使其吸引力低于市场认知。
逐段跳播
Nike 是世界上最强大的品牌之一，从历史上看，它一直是市场上表现最好的股票之一。从 IPO 到 2021 年的峰值，它产生了超过 100,000% 的回报。
Nike is one of the strongest brands in the world and historically it has been one of the best performing stocks on the market. It produced over 100,000% returns from its IPO to its peak in 2021.
然而，该股目前较历史高点已下跌近 80%，而且还在继续下跌。这让许多投资者不禁发问：这只股票是看起来便宜了，还是这家企业真的出了什么问题。
However, it's now down almost 80% from its all-time highs and the stock is continuing to drop. This has led to many investors wondering if the stock is looking cheap or if there is something truly wrong with the business.
所以，过去几天我一直在翻阅 Nike 的财报，研究它的竞争对手，并试图回答这个问题：Nike 现在看起来有意思，还是这家企业已经出现了结构性失败。
So, I have spent the past couple of days looking through Nike's earning supports, looking into its competitors, and trying to answer the question if Nike is looking interesting here or if the business has structurally failed.
我们先从 Nike 最新的财报看起。从最上面看起，我们可以看到 Nike 2026 财年全年收入按固定汇率计算下降了 2%。
Let's get started by taking a look at Nike's most recent earnings report. Starting from the top, we can see that Nike's full year revenues for its fiscal year 2026 were down 2% on a constant currency basis.
具体到第四季度，收入同比下降了 4%。Nike 的毛利率同比上升了 8.9%，但其中 9% 来自关税的回收，这对企业来说是一次性收益。
In the fourth quarter specifically, revenue was down 4% year-over-year. Nike's gross margin was up by 8.9% year-over-year, but 9% of that came from recovery of tariffs, which is a one-time benefit and thing for the business.
如果没有这一项，Nike 的毛利率实际上会下降 0.1%。
And without this, Nike's gross margin would have actually been down 0.1%.
同样，剔除关税返还后，第四季度的每股收益为 20 美分。所以，简单来说，Nike 的收入、利润和利润率都在持续下滑。
Earnings per share for the fourth quarter was 20 cents without the tariff reimbursement as well. So, to put it simply, Nike's revenues, earnings, and margins are all continuing to decline.
下一张截图更详细地谈到了 Nike 的具体品牌和业务板块。在这里我们可以看到，Nike 品牌收入下降了 1%，批发收入则上升了 4%，Nike 直营收入下降了 8%，而 Converse 收入大幅下降了 32%。
This next screenshot talks more about Nike's specific brands and segments. And here we can see that the Nike brand revenues were down 1%, wholesale revenues were up 4% though, Nike direct revenues were down 8% and Converse revenue was down a whopping 32%.
全年每股收益为 2.10 美元，同比下降 3%，这其中确实包含了我们之前谈到的来自关税的 50% 增益。
Earnings per share for the full year came in at $2.10, down 3% year-over-year, and this does include the 50% gain from tariffs that we talked about earlier.
所以按真实的每股收益计算，Nike 全年大约产生了 1.60 美元，同比下降约 25%，按同比计算是大幅下滑。
So on a true earnings per share basis, Nike produced about $1.60 for the year, which is down roughly 25% and is a massive decline on a year-over-year basis.
下一张截图是一张表格，列出了 Nike 业务受到的所有损害。北美销售额同比增长了 5%。欧洲销售额按固定汇率计算下降了 3%。中国全年下降了 13%，本季度下降了 17%。
This next screenshot is a table of all of the damage to Nike's business. North American sales were up 5% year over year. EU sales were down at 3% on a constant currency basis. China was down at 13% for the year and 17% on the quarter.
亚太地区和拉丁美洲全年下跌了1%。而就整体业务而言，全年营收下降了2%，本季度下降了4%。所以在我看来，Nike的业务确实举步维艰，而且看起来已经持续了一段时间。
Asia Pacific and Latin America were down 1% for the year. And for the total business, revenues were down 2% for the year and 4% for the quarter. So from my perspective, Nike's business is really struggling and it looks like it has been for a while.
而且情况似乎还在恶化，营收下滑在加速，利润率也在持续下降。我还仔细看了Nike的电话会议记录，里面有一些亮点我想和你们分享，因为情况并非全是坏的。
It also seems like it's getting worse with revenue declines accelerating and margins continuing to fall. I also went through Nike's conference call transcript and there's some highlights that I want to share with you because it's not all bad.
所以在我这份Daniel Pronk幻灯片中的这一页，我想向你们展示Nike那边实际上哪些业务在奏效。再次说明，幻灯片中的所有要点都来自管理层在会议记录中所说的话。
So in this slide from my Daniel Pronk slideshow, I want to show you what's actually working over at Nike. And again, all of the points in the slide come from what management said in the transcript.
那么从最上面开始，跑步业务是公司转型的概念验证，并且正在显示出良好的初步信号。跑步业务已经连续五个季度实现两位数增长。
So starting from the top, the running segment is the proof of concept for the business's turnaround and it is showing good initial signals. The running segment has had five straight quarters of double-digit growth.
它为整体业务增加了10亿美元的收入，并在西欧和北美获得了5%的市场份额增长。
It has added $1 billion in revenue for the full business and it has gained 5% market share growth in Western Europe and North America.
利润率也在企稳，在剔除我们之前谈到的关税噪音和回拨后，与类似可比对象相比仅下降了0.1%。所以Nike的利润率崩塌似乎正在放缓并接近底部，这其实是件好事。
Margins are also stabilizing and we're only down at 0.1% against similar comparables without the tariff noise and the ad backs that we talked about earlier. So the margin collapse for Nike seems like it is slowing down and nearing a bottom, which is actually good to see.
批发收入也增长了4%，其中北美实现了两位数增长。所以并非整个业务都在下滑，它确实有一些业务板块实际上仍在增长。
Wholesale revenue also grew by 4% with a double-digit growth in North America. So not the entire business is declining and it does have some segments that are actually still growing.
现在同样需要注意的一点是，部分营收下滑是自身造成的。
Now what's also important to note about this is some of the revenue decline is self-inflicted.
而这实际上是计划中的营收下滑。Nike营收疲软有三个主要驱动因素。第一，正如我们刚才讨论的，他们在一些产品上自己造成了一些营收下滑。
And this is actually planned revenue decline. And there are three main drivers for Nike's weakness in its revenue. Number one, they are self-inflicting some revenue declines in some of their products, as we just discussed.
例如，他们将价值20亿美元的经典鞋类商品撤出市场，比如Air Force Ones。Nike还大幅削减了数字促销，这导致Nike直营销售额下降了9%，数字销售额下降了12%。
For example, they pulled $2 billion worth of classic footwear merchandise out of the market, like the Air Force Ones. Nike also gutted digital promotions, which caused Nike direct sales to be down 9% and digital sales to be down 12%.
Nike 这样做是为了扩大利润率并改善剩余收入的质量，但这在短期内导致整体营收下滑。不过，接着看下一张幻灯片，Nike 正面临一些需求方面的困境。
Nike is doing this to expand its margins and to improve the quality of the remaining revenue, but it is causing the overall top line to decline in the short term. Moving on to the next slide, though, Nike is experiencing some demand struggles.
例如，运动服饰和 Jordan 街头服饰大约占收入的一半，而这两个板块的同比销售额都出现了两位数的下滑。管理层还表示，销售这些产品线正变得困难，并且他们给出的指引是到 2027 年上半年都将出现负增长。
For example, sportswear and Jordan streetwear is roughly half of revenue, and both of these segments are seeing double-digit declines on a year-over-year basis. Management also said that selling these lines is becoming challenging, and they are guiding for negative growth through the first half of 2027.
这些品牌和产品线正是历史上支撑生活方式业务的核心，而替代品要到 2027 年春季才会推出。
These brands and lines are what carried the lifestyle business historically, and the replacements are coming in spring of 2027.
然而，这些替代品并不能保证一定奏效，也无法保证能弥补传统生活方式品牌所损失的收入。然后，影响 Nike 收入的最后一个因素是中国以及整体宏观环境。
However, these replacements have no guarantee of working or making up for the lost revenue in the legacy lifestyle brands. And then the last thing that is impacting Nike's revenue is China and the overall macro environment.
中国销售额在最近一个季度下降了 17%，中国业务确实一直举步维艰。Nike 门店的客流量也在下降，Nike 将此归咎于汽油价格上涨以及最终更高的通胀。
China sales are down 17% in the most recent quarter, and the China business has really been struggling. Consumer traffic is also declining in Nike stores, and Nike is blaming this on higher gas prices and ultimately higher inflation.
Nike 管理层还表示，他们认为宏观环境至少在接下来的 6 个月内不会改善。
Nike's management also said that it does not believe the macro conditions will improve for at least the next 6 months.
所以，基本上，由于汽油价格上涨、通胀以及整体经济的不确定性，消费者正在收紧他们的支出。而这正是 Nike 收入——至少用管理层的话说——开始下滑的原因之一。
So, basically, consumers are tightening up how they spend their money due to higher gas prices and inflation, and overall economic uncertainty. And this is one of the reasons why Nike's revenue, at least in management's words, are starting to decline.
那么，我的下一个问题是，Nike 是否正在被其竞争对手颠覆？而在我看来，答案是肯定的。这是因为 Nike 与其竞争对手的销售额清楚地表明，Nike 正在失去市场份额。
So, then my next question was, is Nike being disrupted by its competitors? And in my opinion, the answer is yes. And this is because the sales of Nike versus its competitors are clearly showing that Nike is losing market share.
这意味着，在 Nike 陷入困境的同时，其竞争对手仍在增长，这确实表明它正在把市场份额输给竞争对手。其他消费时尚和运动公司正在增长这一事实也表明，这并不完全是宏观问题。
This means that Nike's competitors are still growing while Nike is struggling too, which does suggest that it is losing market share to its competitors. The fact that other consumer fashion and sporting companies are growing also suggests that it's not entirely a macro issue.
相反，这是 Nike 自身特有的问题。如果这真的是宏观问题，那么现在就不会有任何消费时尚品牌实现增长。但实际上有很多品牌都在增长。
Instead, it is a Nike-specific issue. If it were truly a macro issue, then no consumer fashion brand would be seeing growth right now. But many actually are.
在 Stock Unlock 上，我还制作了一张图表，展示了所有这些不同的消费时尚品牌自 2021 年第四季度以来的总营收增长。
On Stock Unlock, I also made a chart of all of these different consumer fashion brands total revenue growth since the fourth quarter of 2021.
在这张图表中，我们可以看到 Nike 排在最后一名，在过去大约 5 年里总营收增长仅为 0.2%。所以，你再次可以清楚地看到，Nike 在这里排在最后，营收增长最低，在过去大约 5 年里基本上没有营收增长。
And in this chart, we can see that Nike comes in dead last with only 0.2% total revenue growth over the past about 5 years now. So again, you can clearly see that Nike is coming in last here with the lowest amount of revenue growth and basically no revenue growth over the past about 5 years now.
Nike 可能是全球最具标志性的品牌之一，而即便是它如今也撞上了墙，难以继续增长。
Nike is probably one of the most iconic brands globally, and even it has now hit a wall and is struggling to continue growing.
那么，以下是我对 Nike、乃至整个时尚行业的最终看法。Nike 现在是一个困境反转的故事，这么说确实感觉有点奇怪，但它同时也面临着激烈的竞争，而它似乎正在输掉这场竞争。
So, here are my final thoughts on Nike and really the entire fashion industry. Nike is now a turnaround story, which does feel kind of weird to say, but is also seeing fierce competition that it seems to be losing.
竞争对手正在抢占市场份额，并且增长速度远快于 Nike。Nike 实际上是自 2021 年以来同行中增长最弱的，过去 5 年销售额增长持平。
Competitors are taking market share and growing much faster than Nike. Nike has actually seen the weakest growth out of its peers since 2021 with flat sales growth over the past 5 years now.
其主要的生活方式品牌——约占公司营收的一半——也在苦苦挣扎，营收正以两位数的增长率持续下滑。
Its main lifestyle brands, which make up roughly half of the company's revenues, are also struggling and the revenue is consistently declining by double-digit growth rates.
这迫使 Nike 不得不转向重新聚焦其运动品牌，它正努力打造尽可能最好的运动服饰，并重新成为高端运动服饰品牌。
This is causing Nike to have to pivot to focusing on its sports brands again and it is trying to make the best sportswear possible and become the premium sportswear brand again.
这意味着投资 Nike 就是在押注其业务能够成功实现困境反转，而这并不保证一定会发生。此外，在剔除一次性关税收益后，Nike 目前的市盈率仍约为过去 12 个月盈利的 24 倍。
This means that investing in Nike is betting on a successful turnaround of the business, which isn't guaranteed to happen. Now, in addition to this, Nike is still trading for about 24 times trailing 12-month earnings when you factor out the one-time tariff benefits.
如果 Nike 确实成功实现了困境反转，其每股收益回升至 3.80 美元的历史最高水平，那么按今天的价格计算，其市盈率仍约为 10 倍。
If Nike does execute a successful turnaround and its earnings per share gets back to an all-time high of $3.80, then it's still trading for about 10 times earnings today.
但是，在每股收益回升至历史最高水平之前，该业务还有大量工作要做。
But, the business has a lot of work to do before its earnings per share get back to all-time highs.
这完全有可能成功，但我并不认为这只股票像看起来那么便宜，而且它确实承载着很大的执行风险。归根结底，时尚行业对我来说仍然不具备投资价值。
It could very well work out, but I don't think the stock is as cheap as it looks and it does carry a lot of execution risk. And at the end of the day, fashion does remain uninvestable for me.
那么，这些就是我对 Nike、乃至整个时尚行业的看法。
So, those are my thoughts on Nike, and really the entire fashion industry.
简单来说，我不会买入 Nike，也不会买入 Lululemon。我确实理解它们的股票现在看起来可能很便宜，但它们已经变成了困境反转型企业，而我不知道这个反转能否被很好地执行。
So, to put it simply, I'm not going to be buying Nike, I'm not going to be buying Lululemon. I do understand that their stocks could look cheap right now, but they've turned into turnaround businesses, and I don't know if the turnaround is going to be executed well.
尤其是当这个行业的竞争看起来如此激烈，而竞争对手们——再次强调——实际上正在胜出的时候。说了这么多，今天的视频就到这里，这只是我对Nike以及这个行业研究的一个简要概述。你们觉得Nike现在值得一赌吗？
Especially when it seems like the competition in this industry is so fierce, and the competitors, again, are actually winning. And with all that being said, that is going to wrap up today's video, and that's just a quick overview of my research on Nike and this industry.
Do you guys think that Nike is worth the bet right now?
观察点
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Daniel Pronk 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。