NKE 值得买入，但因库存问题可能为时尚早；当前 36 美元的价格具有吸引力，但更倾向于 32 美元。
逐段跳播
我认为大家之所以都在谈论Nike股票，主要原因是它正处在52周以来的最低水平。过去几年里，该股股价已大幅下跌。相比每股超过175美元的峰值，它已经大幅回落。
Listen, I think the main reason everyone is talking about Nike stock is that it's trading at its lowest level in 52 weeks. The stock price has fallen significantly over the past few years.
It has fallen significantly from its peak of over $175 per share.
公司仍在花时间加速增长，这也是现任管理层所希望的。Nike为刺激营收增长而实施的策略之一，是重建与批发商的关系。
The company is still taking time to accelerate its growth, as the current management team hopes . One of the strategies Nike is implementing to stimulate revenue growth is to renew its relationships with wholesalers.
一种方式是通过门店的实体呈现。他们正在翻新全球批发商超过15000个展示空间。这些就是你看到的、用来向顾客展示Nike产品的陈列平台。如果你更有效地组织和陈列产品，这无疑会有助于促进销售；如果顾客能看到你的产品有哪些可选颜色，这会给他们带来想法，并激发对他们产品的需求。
One way is through physical presence in stores. They are renovating more than 15,000 showroom spaces at wholesalers around the world. These are the display platforms you see where Nike products are showcased to customers.
If you organize and display your products more effectively, this will undoubtedly help facilitate sales; If customers can see your product in the available colors, it gives them ideas and generates demand for your product.
他们还减少了“Nike Digital”平台上的折扣。这也有助于改善与批发商的关系。如果批发商看到你在自己的网站上以更低价格销售某款产品，他们就不太愿意在自己的门店里订购和陈列那款产品，因为他们意识到顾客很聪明。
他们很精明。他们会比价。他们会上网搜索，如果看到那款产品价格更低，就更有可能在网上购买。他们可能会来你的门店试穿鞋子、看看合不合脚，然后去网上以更低价格买下。因此，如果批发商看到你持续在自己的网站上以更低价格销售产品，他们就会不太愿意陈列你的产品，或为它分配空间。
所以，减少“Nike Digital”上的折扣，是一种增强批发商信心、提振其需求的方式。
They also reduce discounts on the "Nike Digital" platform. This also helps in improving relationships with wholesalers. If wholesalers see that you are selling a product at a lower price on your website, they will be less interested in ordering and displaying that product in their stores because they realize that customers are smart.
They are shrewd. They are comparing prices. They search online, and if they see that product at a lower price, they are more likely to buy it online. They may come to your store to try on the shoes and see how well they fit, and then go and buy them online for a lower price.
Therefore, wholesalers become less interested in displaying your product or allocating space for it if they see you consistently selling your product on your own website at a lower price.
Therefore, reducing discounts on "Nike Digital" is a way to increase confidence and boost demand from wholesalers.
Nike的管理层一直坚持说，以我们目前的规模，这需要一些时间。他们在与投资者的电话会议上多次重复这一点，告诉我们并提醒我们这需要时间。这需要时间。
Nike's management team has always maintained that, at our current size, this will take some time. They repeated this several times during the conference call with investors, telling us and reminding us that it would take time. It will take time.
这就是为什么，当我最近上调Nike股票评级时，我提醒所有人，当该股在175、150、125、175，甚至50或45交易时，我一直提醒投资者这不是买入机会。所以，一路下跌的过程中，我都在警告投资者，它看起来并不是买入机会。
That's why, when I recently upgraded Nike stock, I reminded everyone that when the stock was trading at 175, 150, 125, 175, and even 50, or 45, I always reminded investors that it was not a buying opportunity.
So, all the way down, I was warning investors that it did not look like a buying opportunity .
所以，如果你过去五年左右一直在看我做的那些关于Nike股票的视频，你本可以避开这次股价的大幅下跌。不过，当Nike股价达到每股约40美元时，我最近将其评级上调为买入机会。当时我把它上调为买入机会，并说：“我认为终于到了买入Nike股票的时候了。”
So, if you had been watching all those videos I’ve been making about Nike stock over the past five years or so, you could have avoided this huge drop in the stock price. However, I recently upgraded my rating on Nike stock to a buy opportunity when it reached around $40 per share .
At that time I upgraded its rating to a buy opportunity and said, "I think it's finally time to buy Nike stock."
自那以后，股价进一步跌至36美元。因此，它目前的交易价格比我最初将Nike股票上调为买入时低了约10%。我在上调Nike股票评级时强调的主要风险之一，是我在这次上调中可能有点过于仓促。
即便股价从175美元暴跌至40美元，我最大的担忧仍是我把它上调为买入有点太早，原因是我在公司基本面中看到的情况。
Since then, the price has dropped further to $36. Thus, it is now trading at a price about 10% lower than when I initially upgraded Nike's stock to buy . One of the major risks I highlighted when upgrading Nike's stock was that I may have been a little too hasty in this upgrade.
Even after the stock price crashed from $175 to $40, my biggest concern is that I was a little too early in upgrading it to a buy because of what I see in the company's fundamentals.
我意识到，还需要一些额外时间，至少再一个季度，可能再两个季度，Nike的业务才能真正到达那个拥有坚实根基、可以从那里开始增长的状态。
I realize it will take some extra time, at least one more quarter, and possibly two more quarters, before Nike's business really gets to that point where it has a solid foundation to start growing from there.
根基还不稳固，而不稳固的原因之一是市场上有很多库存，顾客对它们的想要程度并不像Nike以为的那么高。因此，Nike被迫对其中大量库存打折，尤其是在中国，以便让事情运转起来、把这些产品卖出去。
The foundation is not solid yet, and one of the reasons it is not solid is that there is a lot of inventory in the market that customers do not want as much as Nike thought they would.
Thus, Nike is forced to discount much of that inventory, especially in China, in order to get things moving and sell those products.
当市场上有很多打折库存时，以全价销售你的新库存就变得困难。因为顾客会看着比如促销价215美元一双的新款Jordan鞋，然后把它与其他可能卖40美元的Nike运动鞋作比较，对吧？因此，在这种情况下，很难按全价卖出你的产品。
When you have a lot of discounted inventory on the market, it becomes difficult to sell your new inventory at full price. Because customers look at, say, the new Jordan shoes on sale for $215 a pair, and then compare them to other Nike sneakers that might be selling for $40, right?
Therefore, it is difficult to sell your product at full price under these circumstances.
因此，把这些库存从系统中清掉需要更多时间，减少他们生产和订购的库存量，通过这种方式让市场上的库存更符合市场需求，而市场需求正在变得更差。不是这样吗？
Therefore, it will take more time to clear that inventory from the system, reducing the amount of inventory they build and order, and in this way the inventory in the market is more in line with market demand, which is getting worse. Isn't that so?
在之前的视频里，我们谈到了Nike，以及全球各地的经济逆风如何让消费者的处境更加艰难。人们的可支配收入减少了。这让Nike这类销售可选产品的零售商吸引力下降，这些是人们并不真正需要的东西，对吧？
人们不需要200美元的网球鞋，对吧？这是一种可选消费，人们买它是因为想要，而不是因为有任何需要。因此，当消费者对自己的财务状况感到压力和焦虑时，他们不会出去做这类购买。
In the previous video, we talked about Nike, and how the economic headwinds around the world are making things more difficult for consumers. People have less disposable income.
This makes it less attractive to retailers like Nike, who sell optional products, things people don't really need, right ? People don't need $200 tennis shoes, do they? This is an optional purchase that people make because they want it, not because they need it in any way .
Thus, when consumers feel stressed and anxious about their finances, they will not go out to make such purchases.
正如我之前提到的，我在40美元的水平把它上调为“买入”评级。我认为在36美元这些水平上，该股变得更有吸引力。因此，我目前正在仔细研究这件事。我正在寻找进入Nike股票的方式。
As I mentioned earlier, I upgraded it to a "buy" rating at the 40 level. I believe that at these levels of 36, the stock becomes more attractive. Therefore, I am currently studying the matter carefully. I am looking at ways to get into Nike stock.
考虑到我认为这可能涉及更多风险，而且可能有点早，我正在考虑的一种进入方式是卖出Nike股票行权价为32或30的看涨期权。如果价格跌到那些水平，我会乐意以那些价格持有Nike股票。
但就目前而言，我喜欢这只股票。在32美元的水平我会更喜欢它得多。
One way I'm considering getting in, given that I think it may involve more risk and it may be a little early, is to sell call options with an strike price of 32 or 30 for Nike stock.
If the price drops to those levels, I would be happy to own Nike shares at those prices . But for now, I like the stock. I would like it much more at level 32.
观察点
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。