NKE 仍处于下行趋势，受 20 日均线压制；33 美元附近可能形成底部，但目前尚无持续上行的信号。

Now it's Nike. Last weekend or two weeks ago I was at my neighbor's 10- year-old kid's birthday party and this was the talk, people were just asking when Nike was going to turn around ?

So, what is your opinion when looking at a structure like this? Because clearly the trend is very good and there is no reason for short sellers to be afraid. What would be a credible trend change or some kind of bottom for you ?

Every time it has tried to break the 50- period barrier , it has failed miserably. We are so far from the 200- period moving average that all my hair will fall out by the time we get there.

So, what would you say to those who are looking for bottom? Or would you do anything at all with this stock?

Look, it's interesting to see this huge stock, what used to be called a blue chip, go down 75-80% in value , and everyone wants to say, "Hey, this is a good company ." "I have 12 pairs of shoes in my closet."

"So, I'm going to invest in it." But the 20-day moving average has now become a major obstacle in this downward trend. And I've been keeping an eye on this stock , actually I was looking at it on a quarterly chart.

You know we are looking at the anchor point of Intel's IPO, and that's where this new movement started. So, if you go back to that anchor point of the 1983 IPO. Its value is around 24.

So, it's not very valuable. But you know we talk about handoff. This low point was in 1993, and this handoff from there , this blue line, is in 2000. So, this is basically the next important level from the 2000 low point, which we broke below the 2000 low point.

And now we have the low point of 1993. And as you can see, it's around $33 per share. So, I think we are very close to a point where we will see capitulation or a final collapse.

What you want to see before the stock turns around is a day where there's a lot of volume , I mean we could say , huge volume or washout volume, where some institution says, "Get me out."

I don't care. I have 10 million shares left. Get me out of here now. "Or 50 million shares, whatever. And you see that huge selling pressure . Then a bounce comes. And you have to look at it like maybe I'll hold it for a few years because it's an investment and maybe there was a significant bottom around 33.

Or you look at it like, "Okay, this is a bounce. Let's see how it behaves with the 5-day moving average. "Then, if it can get above that and hold , you start looking at the 10-day and 20-day moving averages and see if the market or the stock is going to let you hold it.

We gapped up today but as you said, it was a complete failure. So, the sellers are still there . There's nothing yet that indicates that this stock is ready for any sustained upside. 33 might be that area .

So out of curiosity, when you're looking for a bottom in a stock like Nike. And you're saying that if this is a long-term investment, where would you like to add shares again ?

And if you do, let's say you trade from the bottom of that big decline. And imagine it's 33, because it's at 34.36 right now. Just hypothetically . Let's say it's 33. If you were to add more shares, maybe it would be the 50-day SMA of the S&P .

Are you the kind of person who would move the stop loss up because of the addition , or do you prefer to keep the support level ? Do you keep it below the anchor of that event? What's your approach ?

Because I do n't average up a lot. To me, if I'm doing a swing trade or buying a stock, that's my buy level and I like this stock at that price for a reason. I might DCA , but I do n't usually average up. What do you do?

I don't. I mean, I'll trade around a position , but I do n't average up unnecessarily. In effect, I'm averaging up , but in reality I might be taking some profits and buying them back at a lower price and keeping my costs the same.

So, considering how much I'm taking out, I might be averaging I'm reducing.

But in the case of Nike, I do n't think it's going to make a big reversal . But if you look at what it did in 2025, the rest of the market was pretty much the same. But if we see something like that, that would be great.

Otherwise, I would expect that initially you'll see some supply at the 20-week moving average . And then, look here, it's the 200 house. And maybe it'll start doing something like that, blue.

I would say, if it starts to behave like that, you slowly add, as it's proving itself , just raise the average. And then take the stop loss on the whole position to that point .

And if it continues and comes back and makes a higher low on the 200-day moving average , you take the stop loss down to that higher low. And when it makes a higher high, raise the stop loss and let the market figure out how long to hold and whether it's profitable to raise the average there or not.

A lot of things Unknown, but given the cyclical nature of money flows in the stock market, that might be one way to do it. And I would then start looking at anchors from all-time highs or those kind of important levels , and hope that those also act as important levels.