Nike是一个买入机会;尽管面临经营逆风和DCF模型显示的轻微高估(公允价值31美元,股价36美元),其远期市盈率仍显示被低估。
逐段跳播
Nike 和 Lululemon 属于表现不佳的运动服饰零售商之列,其股价均在接近 52 周低点的水平交易。我想知道,在这两只下跌的股票中,哪一只目前代表着更好的买入机会。
Nike and Lululemon are among the underperforming sportswear retailers, with their shares trading near 52- week lows. I wanted to know which of these two declining stocks represents a better buying opportunity at the moment .
Nike 和 Lululemon 都面临类似的逆风,这些逆风正在阻碍销售增长,甚至将它们推向下滑。总体而言,Nike 仍是一家规模大得多的公司,过去十二个月的销售额为 460 亿美元,而 Lululemon 紧随其后。展望未来,两家公司的销售可能都将保持疲软。
Both Nike and Lululemon are facing similar headwinds that are hindering sales growth and even pushing them into decline. Overall, Nike is still a much larger company with sales of $46 billion over the past twelve months, while Lululemon comes right behind it.
Looking ahead, sales for both companies are likely to remain weak.
两家公司的管理团队都已下调了近期增长预期,并且仍在努力应对关税和可支配收入减少等宏观经济挑战。
The management teams at both companies have lowered their near-term growth forecasts and are still trying to cope with macroeconomic challenges such as tariffs and reduced disposable income.
要记住,Nike 支付了约 10 亿美元的关税成本,而由于最高法院裁定其中部分关税不合法,美国政府向 Nike 退还了约 10 亿美元,这使 Nike 上一季度的利润率跃升至原本无法达到的水平。
Remember that Nike paid about $1 billion in tariff costs, and because the Supreme Court ruled that some of those tariffs were illegal, the U.S. government gave Nike a refund of about $1 billion , which caused Nike’s profit margin in the last quarter to jump to levels it would not have otherwise reached.
Nike 的利润率正在内生性地下降,因为公司提供更多激励和促销,以清掉目前市场上大量可得的库存。管理团队继续告知投资者,库存存在大量过剩。
Nike's margins are declining organically, as the company offers more incentives and promotions to sell off much of the inventory currently available in the market. The management team continues to inform investors that there is a large surplus in inventory.
我们有许多产品无法吸引消费者,因此需要提供更大的折扣来卖出这些产品。因此,就我们目前考察的三项指标而言,Nike 的整体销售额更高,但 Lululemon 实现了更好的增长。
We have many products that do not attract consumers, so we need to offer bigger discounts to sell these products. So, for the three metrics we've looked at so far, Nike has higher overall sales, but Lululemon has achieved better growth.
从过去三年的情况来看,Nike 历史上的估值一直高于 Lululemon。Nike 目前的远期市盈率为 15.7,而 Lululemon 的远期市盈率为 11.4。
Historically, Nike has sold at a higher valuation than Lululemon when looking at the past three years . Nike is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 15.7, compared to Lululemon which is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 11.4.
所以,Nike 的估值高于 Lululemon,而我不知道 Nike 是否配得上相对它更高的估值。Nike 的问题广泛存在且不断加剧,尤其是在公司经营的各个品类中。
So, Nike is sold at a higher rating than Lululemon, and I don't know if Nike deserves this higher rating compared to it. Nike's problems are widespread and growing, especially in the categories in which the company operates.
Nike 正在努力重建此前领导团队决定直接面向消费者、取消中间商时受损的关系。
Nike is working hard to rebuild relationships that were damaged during the previous leadership team's decision to go directly to consumers and eliminate intermediaries.
所以,Nike 面前还有大量工作要做,它面临与 Lululemon 类似的经济逆风,但在我看来,它需要做更多,才能回到让它在销售地位、与批发商的关系,以及公司层面为提升产品竞争力所需做的一切方面都感到舒适的水平。
So, Nike has a lot of work ahead of it , and it faces economic headwinds similar to those faced by Lululemon, but in my opinion, it needs to do more to get back to levels where it feels comfortable with its sales position, its relationship with wholesalers, and everything that needs to be done at the company level to make its products more competitive.
对于 Nike,我计算出的公允价值为 31 美元,而其当前市价为 36 美元。因此,按贴现现金流衡量,即便应用 10% 的安全边际,Nike 股票似乎仍略微高估。
For Nike, I calculated a fair value of $31 compared to its current market price of $36. So, Nike stock, when measured on a discounted cash flow basis, appears to be slightly overvalued even with a 10% safety margin applied.
然而,按远期市盈率衡量,Nike 似乎被低估。总体而言,我认为Nike的股价似乎略微被低估。
However, when measured on a forward price-to-earnings basis, Nike appears to be undervalued. Overall, I would say that Nike's stock appears to be slightly undervalued .
不用说,我把这两者都归类为买入机会。
Needless to say, I have categorized both as buying opportunities.
这个频道对 $NKE 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。